See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
Asian stocks are having a relatively good response to the overnight higher risk sentiment following the latest Fed rate hike and subsequent slowdown signals, yet Chinese shares remain the laggard in the region. Stronger moves against USD are still holding on with the Australian dollar just above the 70 level while oil prices are slowly pushing higher with Brent crude now back at the $103USD per barrel level, while gold has inched slightly higher to build on its overnight gains, currently at the $1740USD per ounce level, almost making a two week high:

Mainland Chinese share markets were up at the halfway point but are slowing down at the close with the Shanghai Composite up just 0.2% at 3283 points while the Hang Seng Index is still in retracement mode, down 0.2% at 20623 points. Japanese stock markets are doing a little bit better, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.3% to 27815 points as the USDJPY pair drops sharply down to the mid 135 level as Yen buyers step in amid the renewed USD weakness for a new weekly low:

Australian stocks had a very solid lift from the Fed rate hike fallout with the ASX200 closing nearly 1% higher to almost get to the 6900 point level, finishing at 6889 points. The Australian dollar has again tried to punch through the 70 handle but hasn’t advanced on last night’s post Fed move as momentum remains nicely overbought:

Eurostoxx and US futures are not moving but still holding on to their overnight gains with the S&P500 four hourly futures chart showing price action wanting to continue its breakthrough above the 4000 point level to start a new relief rally:

The economic calendar doesn’t cool off tonight following the Fed, with German inflation and US Q2 GDP results dominating.
- Macro Afternoon - August 9, 2022
- Macro Morning - August 9, 2022
- Macro Afternoon - August 8, 2022
hay reus, I know league is a little proletariat for you, but you may enjoy tonight’s game.
Your home team (many of the players I’m sure you know from the parties) are playing a team of woofta lovers for a place in the finals.
It adds a certain frisson to the contest.
It clashes with the Neighbours finale!
The winners tonight will be well on the way to a semi.
Noice
How’s that going to be to our RBA that Powell ditched forward guidance?
Captain Phil having having played a shocker with his “no cash rate rise until 2024” repeated guidance would probably be quite happy to give no guidance between now and when his contracts comes to an end in September 2023? ~ 400 sleeps to go.
Cue ‘The Shocker’ soundtrack…
Mmm,…Less than the 547.5 sleeps (18 months) before boom times come back again.
Significant?
🤔
https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/asias-richest-woman-yang-huiyan-watches-fortune-vanish/news-story/66a0d0ff1b096ffccbf2cc1ea539f398
Have you met her Reusa? She seems very Real Estate minded like you
Great link, thanks.
he he :’-)
😀
“Yang’s net worth plunged by more than 52 per cent from $US23.7 ($A33.9) billion to $11.3 ($A16)“
Oh the humanity!
Imagine all the stuff she can no longer afford to buy.
Seeing a whole bunch of people wearing masks at work again, the Subway near me appears to have made it policy as none of the staff were wearing them last week and now every single one of them is.
Did they have aides?
No, sadly Jared had all the aides
Better hope it’s not a hot summer!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11057059/Mystery-spike-Covid-deaths-hottest-day-year-Virus-fatalities-doubled-40C-heat.html
(can’t see how it’s a mystery, a bunch of old people “with covid” died from the heat and a bunch sick with covid died due to the combined stress of covid & heat, I would have thought)
Qantas are offering a base rate of $21 an hour to join their ground crew. No wondering they are struggling to fill roles.
Mate of mine working one of the big optical chains got a ‘congratulations we’ve upped your salary’ letter … a whopping 1% … he was *fuming*
Should’ve gone to spec’ savers.
Ah… ummm… see, there’s a problem with that… that was ’em who insulted him like that…
That said, opossum is just as bad…
Meanwhile, profits galore, and hey, jobkeeper was a noice little earner, thankyouverymuch!
Can’t do two pairs for $149 by paying 25 an hour
Yes they could
What an insult!
Neighbor tells me they are contract positions with no perks. The only reason people did the job before was for the flight perks apparently.
If one of these underpaid Qantas workers happened to see Alan Joyce drowning and did not lend a hand,..should that person feel bad,.. for laughing?
So, Monkeypox was declared a communicable disease in Australia today…….this protects general insurance companies from claims arising from it. There were 1,000 cases in the US today….expecting 100,000 total by end August and a million total by Christmas.
https://twitter.com/BNOFeed/status/1552410200111517696
Pro tips…..it is 20 times as big as the Covid virus and very hard to kill outside the human body It can live between 2 to 3 weeks on surfaces and soap and water won’t kill it. Ethanol based cleaners are not very successful either. Dettol is the go for surfaces and the hand scrub used by doctors is needed for personal hygiene.
It can survive the washing machine which means apart from stockpiling Dettol there will a rush on old copper boilers retro-fitted to LPG because the steam laundries will be busy. You could just throw their clothes, towels and sheets out I suppose.
We will know more when it gets into Spanish and US schools.
Lovely!
I can’t say I’m particularly concerned about Monkeypox, not being in the target demographic.
I can’t even catch the bloody Rona, despite having slept with my partner for several days while she was at her most infectious.
Ugh hear we go again with the HIV mindset, worked out well last time. BTW its not a STD.
In a world of financialised globalisation, prices of food are not determined by the simplistic laws of supply and demand.
Prices are determined by a wall of money wielded by relatively few, invisible speculators and aimed at largely unregulated global grain markets.
Share System Change
Yesterday, the Financial Times ran an article on global food security. Editors made clear the text was not the work of FT journalists, but “partner content.” The name of the partner? Bayer AG – by their own definition “a global leader in agriculture.” The article began thus:
While the people of Ukraine face an ongoing nightmare, the Russian invasion has set in motion a global food crisis that requires our attention and immediate action. In fact, the war has knocked the global food system off its axis, risking a humanitarian disaster.
As readers will know from an earlier post, I take a different view. The global food crisis is a consequence of commodity price speculation on Wall St and the CME – not directly the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Readers may think this controversial, but bear with me, as we hear Bayer out:
Ukraine is one of the most important suppliers of wheat, corn, oils, and other essential commodities to the world. Known as the breadbasket of the world, the country has secured the food supply for parts of the Middle East and East Africa, including countries like Egypt and Lebanon whose stability is paramount for the region.
These facts – the invasion of Ukraine, and the latter’s role as “as one of the most important suppliers of wheat, corn…” were directly contradicted by Bayer AG on another platform: when announcing its Q1 earnings results – as Seeking Alpha reported in May this year – fully three months after war began:
The German conglomerate’s core EPS grew +36.3% Y/Y to €3.53. Net income (including discontinued operations) grew +57.5% to ~€3.29B. Group sales grew +18.7% Y/Y (or +14.3% on a currency and portfolio-adjusted basis, or Fx & portfolio adj.) to ~€14.64B.
“We achieved outstanding sales and earnings growth, with particularly substantial gains for our agriculture business,” said Werner Baumann, chairman of the board of management.
The company said that in Q1 group sales and earnings were not negatively impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In total, the two countries account for ~3% of sales.
The emphases are mine. Now of course the invasion of Ukraine, and the fact that both Russia and Ukraine account for a proportion of global sales of grain had a material impact on speculators. But as Bayer AG acknowledges the share of sales is not large enough to cause the kind of food crisis the world has endured. This is because Russia produces just 11% of the world’s wheat and Ukraine produces 3%. There are plentiful supplies elsewhere to compensate for the loss of these shares in global grain markets. Which partly explains why Bayer AG were able to rake in massive gains from the deliberate inflation of food price rises. – snip
https://annpettifor.substack.com/p/grain-inflation-starve-the-poor-feed
Rule number one – Because[tm] markets …
Rule number two – Die …
The hardest part will be getting the monkey off their back in the first place.
No more Relations Parties 🎉 for a while.
Not too hard to avoid if you are not into chems3x parties, apparently.
MB brains trust, I have a question:
Doing the transfer case and gearbox oil changes on the TF rodeo and the Gregory’s says to use engine oil but all the parts finders on the retail websites recommend 75w-85 gear oil.
What’s the difference? What should I use? (Many many posts on 4wd forums with many many arguments and nearly always a 50/50 split on what to use lol).
Speaking for myself, 50% Chappell Hill Cab Sav 2014 and 50% lube.
Well on the way to a semi.
..llon, right?
🤞
If its 50/50 and a TF rodeo does it matter – ?????
You could be right lol
I’d use the gear oil which probably means that engine oil is the way to go.
Brains trust tells me that viscosity may be similar even with apparently different weight oils. Engine oil will have other stuff related to being in a combustion environment which I expect you don’t want in a gearbox. I’d go with whatever is cheaper quality. But whatever. I think Mini’s used to have the same oil slushing around engine and gearbox from the same sump.
Isn’t it traditional to fill it with banana skins?
Asstroglide!
+ Meatloaf!
I thought it was 547.5 sleeps Banana skins Jammed in the rocker cover of a Holden 202 engine.
Apparently it was good for quieting down a noisy engine just before sale.
Engine oil will be thinner & squeeze out from between the gear teeth where it’s needed. Engine oil will have detergents & other additives that can glaze in other environments, that gears don’t need. I’m surprised engine oil’s recommended – judging by what I know at least……
Use gear oil and don’t stress. Most people are not chemical engineers. So they have no clue. Clean oil is better than none or old oil.
It’s definitely some old oil so will just go the gear oil and get it done tomorrow. Was just real surprised the Gregory’s said standard engine oil.
Personally I’d just use ATF, might seem weird but from my experience ATF is superior to gear oil.
It’s very common in the BMW performance community to replace gear oil with ATF, it just seems to work better.
less noise and faster smother shifts, I’m not certain about wear, you can make an argument for better and worse wear it depends a lot on the exact materials used for the different parts of the gear box.
Had seen a few people mention this, food for thought. I’ve already ordered some gear oil so it’ll have to do for now but if it’s not feeling great I’d be more keen to swap for ATF than regular old 15w-40 engine oil.
Yeah but funny cats
https://mobile.twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1552555315555606528
If the grid can’t cope with data centres how the hell is it going to cope charging everyone car every night!?
This is a tragedy.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-28/yang-huiyan-loses-half-her-fortune/101278752
Admonish yourself, sternly
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/07/macro-afternoon-1408/#comment-4305860
Outrageous! This calls for a flogging!
*gritted teeth* my lawyers have advised me to make the statement that I’m sorry if anyone has chosen to take offence to my actions. I am sorry if anyone thinks that I have done something wrong.
I will endeavour not to cause anyone to choose to feel offended by my actions, deserved or not.
You have violated our Phanny.
HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO SAY I’M SORRY IF ANYONE’S UPSET??????
I truly regret if anyone feels upset, but I have been under a lot of stress recently.
The pros take mental health leave at this point.
Could you violate him a couple more times as your penance is a fractional number.
Look, one of my staff had unauthorised control of my MB account. I have sacked her and she is as I type manoeuvring her wheelchair into the disabled taxi. It sounds like she is on the phone to her dying mum but I can’t tell though the tears.
So, I hope you’re all happy now.
I’ve got further bad news for you
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11056715/Colmont-School-Kilmore-International-School-close-Friday.html
You still deserve a flogging, self administer if necessary.
Done.
That was quick. Strike while the iron’s hot I guess.
There’s that fcuking word again …….plunge
Is a plunge from 16 billion net worth to 8 billion
net worth the same as a house in Sydney falling
by 1% being a plunge …
how does one define this “ plunging “
business …..
Could be worse, eg Jack Ma has “ceded’ control of Ant (if you believe he ceded control I have a bridge to sell Y ouse)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jack-ma-may-cede-ant-group-control-fintech-prepares-become-financial-holding-company
I just hope she is OK
Labor Party? 😆😱🤯
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/inflation-on-track-for-32-year-high-as-wages-go-backwards-chalmers-20220728-p5b5a7.html
The Party of the Wage Earner? 🙉🙊🙈
Dim Jim saying it’s terrible that Aussies are going to be doing it tough for a time, no fkn kidding! And it’s largly thanks to him doing nothing to alleviate it.
Harsh
https://twitter.com/88888sAccount/status/1552485287280132096
If you go, at least leave a large loan default and a bloated corpse.
I bet you can’t @haroldus
It’s not as though he can’t afford an exorbitant gym membership.
I guess the emotions raised by Neighbours’ final scenes were too much for the commentariat.
Was it good?
Did Delta Goodrem and Margot Robbie get their bits out?
If they did I’ll watch it lol
Twice.
So inflation is not expected to settle into the 2 – 3% target band until 2024…hopes and prayers. Difficult to see any interest cuts before then.
Only 547.5 sleeps away.
What’s that annualised?
Vodka and orange. 2020.
Edit: no orange, fkcén.
Edit: doesn’t seem to be a problem.
You put this idea in my brain, been thinking about vodka/orange all morning so now at the pub having just that. Half day fridays for the win.
Appletini, Appletini, Appletini…
Reminds me of the time I returned to NZ after backpacking around Sydney amd Melbourne. First NZ bar I walk into a few weeks later I asked the barmaid “Do you have VB?”. I was very very lucky to be able to walk out of there without requiring assistance.