Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A modest bounceback on Asian share markets today due to the upbeat overnight lead from Wall Street as the steep falls in commodity prices amid global recession fears can’t keep the equity traders away. The defensive USD is keeping Pound Sterling and Euro down, although both are lifting slightly before the European open, while the Australian dollar has had a very modest lift this morning, still remaining quite depressed at the 68 cent level. Oil prices are steady after their recent big fall, with Brent crude hovering at the $100USD per barrel level, while gold is treading water just below the $1750USD per ounce level:

Mainland Chinese share markets dropped at the open but have recovered going into the close with the Shanghai Composite up nearly 0.3% to 3365 points while the Hang Seng Index is down a similar amount, currently at 21543 points. Japanese stock markets are the best in the region, with the Nikkei 225 index about to close nearly 1.3% higher at 26440 points while the USDJPY pair has found a modicum of support at the 135 handle after bouncing over slightly overnight but remains stuck sideways:

Australian stocks have had a solid session as well, with the ASX200 finishing 0.7% higher at 6641 points. The Australian dollar remains on the ropes although its had another little surge this afternoon with the overall trend still down:

Eurostoxx and US futures are lifting slightly as we head into the European open, with the S&P500 four hourly futures chart showing price action wanting to continue its push above the 3800 point support level with short term momentum now actually get slightly overbought as price exceeds Friday’s closing point:

The economic calendar includes the latest ECB meeting minutes, then US balance of trade and initial jobless claims.

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Comments

  1. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Sri Lanka’s crisis rings alarm for other troubled economies … Elaine Kurtenbach … AP / Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/300632015/sri-lankas-crisis-rings-alarm-for-other-troubled-economies

    Sri Lanka is desperate for help with weathering its worst crisis in recent memory.

    Its schools are closed for lack of fuel to get kids and teachers to classrooms. Its effort to arrange a bailout from the International Monetary Fund has been hindered by the severity of its financial crisis, its prime minister says.

    But it’s not the only economy that’s in serious trouble as prices of food, fuel and other staples have soared with the war in Ukraine.

    Alarm bells are ringing for many economies around the world, from Laos and Pakistan to Venezuela and Guinea. … read more via hyperlink above …

  2. We are all going to need a Ministry of Supply like in wartime. The oil situation is dire and food will follow next year. Oil inventories…….

    https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/1544670859918450691

    Opec shipments falling off

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/can-past-oil-production-predict-the-future/#comment-742417

    This is being handled by running down the US SPR and shipping it overseas, but this can’t continue for ever

    https://news.yahoo.com/oil-u-reserves-head-overseas-110438513.html

    And the Europeans are still in denial about their energy situation. Stop gap measures heading into northern winter are delusional.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        It’s merely wishful thinking. July 4th holiday tends to do weird thing to markets.

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Our Ministers can’t seem to make a decision now let alone solve an actual problem.

      Can you imagine the Minister of Supply? Well we can’t stop exporting what oil we do produce and we can’t get supplies into the country. Therefore our only solution is to ramp up immigration and pay all Australian’s $25 each so they can put that towards their petrol bills

    • Camden HavenMEMBER

      France supermarket definitely having some supply issues. Fresh is holding up well, plenty of alternatives at present.

      Bumper crop harvest around us rye wheat and barley. Canola and sunflower 🌻 on the way.

    • Two months later, he snapped up a second property located in Ipswich, Queensland for $485,000 – which is now cash-flow negative.

      Wow! From Dipswich with lurrrv! Savvy to the max! … with the all the works! Negative cash-flow! Go Morgan!

      • Do you know how to tell the IQ of an Ipswichean – ???? – something about the number of teeth in their head … so I have heard …

        • I was in Ipswich yesterday, it has changed. Lots of flash cars getting around and what appeared to be well off young families. All the houses are the same size they used to be just very tastefully restored to good condition. Seems the genuinely savvy all moved to Ippy and bought cheap, didn’t go reno crazy and are all sitting pretty. I’d say the IQ round those parts has raised significantly.

          • Wellie if you remember the ex mayor was known for some mates rates kick backs jobs building programs, so there’s some lube, add to that the red lining of long term residents spurning on Gentrification [move to blackbutt et al for the marks], city slickers with some dosh or eager IP buyers looking for higher yield compared to Brisbane RE, but that’s not to say Fernvale et al are not kicking goals as many seek the rural life ….. anyway my youngest son attended IGS … could have gone to Brisbane Grammar [family is all old boys] or BBC on a Rugby disbursement [110kg, 6’3. speed of a back after 3 steps and the mother of all fends, his back is so huge and chest thick, still scared of me lmmao], albeit most of his rugby from Wests and some primary school mates were going to IGA so that was that …

            Oh yeah … so basically everything your seeing in Ipswich that your observing is the direct result of what many on MB have a wobble on about.

            PS son went from what his mates called an Ipswichean older model Falcon Ute w/ trayback to a modified RD28 Nissan 4×4 … sigh they grow up fast …

            PSS in the next disheveled episode I’ll question how my eldest son without uni degree went from working for a international concern sub contracting public services to the equivalent of a APS6, had a go at the new super merger and went naw [likes his brain too much], and has now moved onto a public service job with way more potential and rewards ..

    • lololol. 22 yrs old and he’s a “SENIOR Property Investment SPECIALIST” and so senior he’s chatting to a broker to work out how to go to a fixed interest loan. Hope he goes broke.

  3. Do any of you shut ins shop at Aldi?

    I’ve noticed a very sudden and sharp increase in hot milfs in yoga pants and driving euro sedans shopping at my aldi. Wondering if this trend is national.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      It is easier for an Instagrammer to enter the super market of Aldi than it is for a camel toe

    • Eh, over here at my Aldi, the would-be milfs are of islander descent. And as such, easier to jump over than go around. Pass!

      • That’s the normal clientele for the Aldi’s I frequent, it’s what makes this sudden change so noticeable. Maybe the interest rates have hit them and their budgets hard so they’re slumming it. I am thoroughly enjoying my shopping regardless.

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          I remember an anecdote I had a few years back (posted it here at the time but CBF finding it again) about standing behind a woman at the checkout in Aldi who was trying to decide what she could leave behind and still make dinner – and judging by the number of silver coins she’d raided her kids piggybanks to get even that far – but then walked outside to get into $100k worth of AMG Mercedes.

          She weren’t ugly either, but this was before OnlyFans.

        • Hopefully we get the great collapse the sunlord is babbling about, pretty hard to carry on with internet rumour and all that stupidity when there is no internet/electricity and you’re working the fields for food. (I’m being a bit ott but man I hate all the new age conspiracy, it’s just ridiculous)

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Yep. Net’s just not the same these days.

            Not since Princess Di disappeared from public life and began running Huawei.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      “Qt#rds”
      Hat tip to mig
      There’s more than a few here on MB, both members and open mic night blow-ins

  4. Wong and Arden are two peas in the liberal pod – deep down, China is the natural foil to the US – https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/wong-it-is-in-australia-s-interests-to-stabilise-relationship-with-china-20220707-p5azv8.html “We believe it would be in China and Australia’s interests for this relationship to be stabilised,” Wong said. “We are willing to engage, and that willingness extends to any meeting on the margins of the G20.” Chinese government-controlled media has suggested the Labor government had opened a window of opportunity to ease tensions between the two countries…

    Arden doesn’t even pretend! https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-world-is-bloody-messy-ardern-softens-stance-on-china-20220707-p5azv1.htmlNew Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has pushed back on a central pillar of US President Joe Biden’s foreign policy, arguing it is overly simplistic to see modern geopolitics as a contest between democracies and authoritarian regimes such as China…

    • Wong and Ardern are both naive enough not to realise or admit that China would happily knock them both off if the benefit was greater than the risk.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      If I’m the head of a country with neither a standing army or navy, I will say the exact same thing.

    • Neither seem to have a clue about Xi’s China.
      The relationship cannot be stabilised when Xi believes Australia should kowtow to him & that we are merely a resource to be utilised to make China great & we are America’s running dog, both of which will be vanquished by the socialist system with Chinese characteristics.
      Arden is wrong as well as that is exactly how Xi sees things, that’s why he’s trying to change the rules based world order to Chinese Rules. Don’t they have people who read & translate the CPC party thought?

    • Camden HavenMEMBER

      Extract from Zulu post.
      But it also comes amid a sharp sell-off in volatile equity markets, with the Nasdaq Composite index down 28.2 per cent this year and the S&P/ASX 200 down 12.4 per cent over the same period.

      Asked whether it was an appropriate time for customers to be taking out margin loans, Ms Elliott said: “It’s up to individual clients, we enable the investment choice.”

      She must be very clever

  5. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand: Average value of NZ homes down more than $50k since January, Auckland values down by almost $100k, QV says …

    Auckland, Wellington and Palmerston North experience the biggest falls in housing values … Greg Ninness … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/116658/auckland-wellington-and-palmerston-north-experience-biggest-falls-housing-values

    Housing market correction picks up pace, QV says … Miriam Bell … Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/129203817/housing-market-correction-picks-up-pace-qv-says

    Compare this housing bubble deflation velocity … at the same stage … and going forward … with earlier housing bubbles …

    Housing Bubble – Wikipedia

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_bubble

    … with New Zealand’s current housing bubble the riskiest within the OECD … according to Bloomberg recent research …

    World’s bubbliest housing markets are flashing warning signs … Enda Curran … Bloomberg

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/world-s-bubbliest-housing-markets-are-flashing-warning-signs-1.1782289