Fundies in “full capitulation”

Advertisement

BofA with the monthly fundie survey. It appears everybody has now joined the MB outlook. Being consensus is never a comfortable place to be. 

As well, I can’t help wondering if the great COVID stimulus has distorted views in survey. Fundies have been spoiled with free money and easy gains so now poor sentiment may be a reflection of the reversal of that rather than an indicator of a turn in the cycle or the depths of asset deflation that is possible. After all, a -20% bear market and recession possibility hardly warrants Lehman levels of depression. No to mention worse than the onset of COVID when markets were down double!

Then there is this schism between top-down sentiment and bottom-up earnings outlooks which haven’t broken down yet. 

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:
Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
Advertisement