Australian house prices sink like the Titanic

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CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index recorded another heavy week of losses, with values down another 0.34% across the five major capital cities in the week ended 21 July.

It was the eleventh consecutive weekly decline in values at the 5-City aggregate level:

CoreLogic weekly dwelling values

11th consecutive week of price decline.

The fall in values was driven by the three biggest capital city markets of Sydney (-0.56%), Melbourne (-0.30%) and Brisbane (-0.21%), more than offsetting small rises across the other two markets:

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Weekly dwelling price changes

All three capital city markets now losing value.

So far in July, dwelling values at the 5-City aggregate level have fallen 0.86%, driven by steep falls across Sydney (-1.42%) and Melbourne (-0.88%), with Brisbane values (-0.26%) falling more moderately:

Monthly dwelling price movements

Australian house prices facing heavy falls in July.

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The rate of quarterly decline has also steepened, with dwelling values down 2.0% at the 5-City aggregate level, again driven by heavy losses of 4.0% across Sydney and 2.7% across Melbourne:

CoreLogic quarterly dwelling value growth

Quarterly price declines are accelerating.

In fact, Sydney dwelling values have fallen 4.6% from their February 2022 peak, whereas Melbourne’s values are down 2.9% from their peak. Brisbane’s dwelling values only began to fall in mid-June, and are down a cumulative 0.6%.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia has so far only hiked the official cash rate (OCR) to 1.35%. With ANZ and the futures market tipping an OCR above 3% by year’s end, Australian house prices look set to record deep losses.

While Sydney and Melbourne will fare worst, owing to their status as Australia’s most expensive markets, it is only a matter of time before the correction spreads to nearly every housing market across Australia, both capital city and regional.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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