After enjoying record support over the pandemic, New Zealand voters are turning against Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Government.
According to new polling by Roy Morgan Research, National is leading Labour 40.0% to 31.5% on primary vote – the biggest lead since Ardern was first elected in October 2017:
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On a coalition basis, National/Act/Maori is leading Labour/Greens by 51.0% to 43.0%:
The swing away from Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern amid a sharp fall in consumer and government confidence over the past year:
Commenting on the results, Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said the Ardern Government is under assault from soaring interest rates and rising cost-of-living:
“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised interest rates by 0.50% in May to 2% – the highest official interest rates have been for nearly six years since November 2016. The RBNZ has now increased official interest rates on five separate occasions by a total of 1.75%.
“Although the five interest rate increases by the RBNZ since October 2021 are clearly having a negative impact on confidence within New Zealand; the RBNZ’s own forecasts show that official interest rates will be around 3.9% by this time next year – a further increase of nearly 2% points.
“The prospect of interest rates doubling again from their current level in an effort to get control of inflation within New Zealand will not be welcome news for many New Zealand mortgage holders – nor for the Ardern Government which faces re-election later next year”.
The broader issue facing Ardern is that she is no longer trusted after breaking multiple election pledges around housing and immigration.
Jacinda Ardern has regularly announced one thing and then done the opposite, which is why Kiwi voters are abandoning her in droves.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also Chief Economist and co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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