Tens of thousands of Victorians flee to Queensland

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) yesterday released population data for the December quarter, which showed that Australia’s population growth rose by 63,400 over the quarter:

Australian population change

This occurred on the back of a swing in net overseas migration (NOM) back into positive, with NOM rising by 29,200 over the quarter:

Net overseas migration
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Annual population growth nationally rose to 127,900 in the 2021 calendar year with NOM of -3,600:

Australia's population time series

Over the pandemic (i.e. between Q2 2020 and Q4 2021), Victoria lost 51,390 people from negative NOM, whereas the nation lost 83,800 migrants:

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Net overseas migration over pandemic

Victoria’s population also shrunk by 49,188, with Queensland’s population soaring by 102,545 due to an inflow of southerners (mostly Melburnians):

Population growth over pandemic
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The inward migration to South East Queensland helps to explain the region’s price outperformance over the pandemic. However, with interest rates now rising, Queensland’s property market is also beginning to wane.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.