Sydney’s housing market crash quickens

The weekend’s auction results were another shocker for Sydney, with the city’s preliminary clearance rate plunging to only 55.4% – the worst result in more than two years:

Preliminary auction results

Sydney’s poor result off strong volumes helped sink the nation’s preliminary auction clearance rate to 57.8% – the lowest preliminary result since August 2021.

According to CoreLogic regarding Sydney:

Of the 624 results collected so far, 55.4 per cent were successful, the lowest preliminary clearance rate the city has seen since April 2020. The previous week recorded a preliminary clearance rate of 58.1 per cent, which revised down to 54.3 per cent at final figures. Once the remaining results are collected, Sydney’s final clearance rate may slip into the 40 per cent range, although it’s likely to just manage to hold above 50.0 per cent.

These auction results auger badly for Sydney house prices given the strong historical correlation between clearance rates and house price growth:

Sydney auction clearance rate versus prices

Auction clearances point straight down for Sydney prices.

Sydney dwelling values are already plummeting, with value declines steepening since early May when the Reserve Bank began hiking interest rates:

Sydney house prices

Sydney dwelling values are falling fast.

The quarterly rate of price decline has hit 2% in Sydney, which will surely accelerate from here.

Sydney could be staring at double-digit price value in 2022, with more to come in 2023 if the Reserve Bank continues hiking rates aggressively.

Unconventional Economist

Comments

  1. pfh007.comMEMBER

    55% is actually very impressive considering most people expect the RBA to be ramming through more interest rate rises over the next 6 months.

    Must be a lot of folks desperate to get a foot on the ladder to wealth and a bunch of investors happy to get out only a little below the peak.

    • 37% of auction results are unreported. It was closer to 5% unreported mid last year.

      I expect SQM to announce a more realistic clearance rate closer to 40%.

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