Sydney and Melbourne will lead Australia’s housing market bust

Advertisement

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday released a new series on Australia’s dwelling stock, which showed that the total value of Australian residential dwellings hit a record high $10.2 trillion dollars in the March quarter of 2022:

Total value of residential dwellings

Record residential housing values in Q1 2022.

As expected, the value of dwellings nationally is dominated by our two largest jurisdictions of NSW (Sydney) and Victoria (Melbourne), whose dwellings were valued at $4.1 trillion (40% share) and $2.7 trillion (27% share) respectively in the March quarter of 2022. This means that together, these two states alone account for two-thirds (67%) of Australia’s housing stock by value, which is well above their 58% share of Australia’s population.

Share of residential dwelling values

NSW and VIC dominate dwelling values.

Advertisement

Their out-sized value share also means that where Sydney and Melbourne house prices go, national prices will follow. This is pertinent given both markets are now falling, in turn dragging national values into the red:

Quarterly dwelling value growth

Sydney and Melbourne pull national values into the red.

When it comes to Australian property there’s Sydney and Melbourne, and then there’s everything else.

Advertisement
About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.