Sydney and Melbourne will lead Australia’s housing market bust

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday released a new series on Australia’s dwelling stock, which showed that the total value of Australian residential dwellings hit a record high $10.2 trillion dollars in the March quarter of 2022:

Total value of residential dwellings

Record residential housing values in Q1 2022.

As expected, the value of dwellings nationally is dominated by our two largest jurisdictions of NSW (Sydney) and Victoria (Melbourne), whose dwellings were valued at $4.1 trillion (40% share) and $2.7 trillion (27% share) respectively in the March quarter of 2022. This means that together, these two states alone account for two-thirds (67%) of Australia’s housing stock by value, which is well above their 58% share of Australia’s population.

Share of residential dwelling values

NSW and VIC dominate dwelling values.

Their out-sized value share also means that where Sydney and Melbourne house prices go, national prices will follow. This is pertinent given both markets are now falling, in turn dragging national values into the red:

Quarterly dwelling value growth

Sydney and Melbourne pull national values into the red.

When it comes to Australian property there’s Sydney and Melbourne, and then there’s everything else.

Unconventional Economist

Comments

  1. AndynycMEMBER

    Even CJoye is stating that the RBA could get prices down to 2014 levels with their aggressive increases.

    I think demand will be surely cooked by then.

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        If we go back to 2014 that means we’re stripping one layer of those 7 years cycles
        So still minor correction 🙃
        Also means we’re back to Abbott Era, imagine the bad things could have been avoided

    • SkepticviewerMEMBER

      Demand cooked – what about the one mill multi-house seeking immigration PY factor, air BnB, massive rental rate returns due to the last two items. Demand will not go down, however, the cost of this greed fest may well start a nasty pushback if more climate-related impacts occur. Then again the Australian population may just accept their new role as disposable trash that is getting in the way of repopulation with new consumers and cheaper workers. Plenty of bridges out there. The price fall blip is only happening because the floodgates are taking a while to open.

  2. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    No fixing thing now. Poison must be taken, and it should have been much less than it’s going to be. We just had to avoid 2 more years of FOMO.

  3. Charles MartinMEMBER

    I got a txt message from a Real Estate agent in Brisbane asking if I was interested in selling as the market is amazing and similar properties are selling quickly and for record prices. If I want an appraisal next week it’s no problem as they will be in the area.
    Gotta keep flogging that horse.

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