Stocks shock not over

The smartest guys on Wall Street remain bearish. Michael Hartnett at BofA:

The Price is Right: positioning uber-bearish but techicals at one-yard line; NYSE Composite (NYA Index) best Wall St barometer (US stocks + ADRs + bond ETFs) at 14k = 200-week moving average + highs in ‘18 & ’20 (Chart4 & 5); big break below 14k & traders set to target ’18 lows of 11k as bear morphs into crash.

Tale of the Tape: S&P 500 entered a bear market on June 13, the 20th bear market in the past 140 years; average peak to trough bear decline = 37.3%, average duration 289 days; history is no guide to future performance but if it were, today’s bear market would end on Oct 19, 2022 (35-year anniversary of Black Monday) with S&P 500 at 3000; good news. Avg bull market duration is 64 months with 198% return, so next bull sees SPX at 6000 by Feb’28.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.