Stocks shock not over

The smartest guys on Wall Street remain bearish. Michael Hartnett at BofA:

The Price is Right: positioning uber-bearish but techicals at one-yard line; NYSE Composite (NYA Index) best Wall St barometer (US stocks + ADRs + bond ETFs) at 14k = 200-week moving average + highs in ‘18 & ’20 (Chart4 & 5); big break below 14k & traders set to target ’18 lows of 11k as bear morphs into crash.

Tale of the Tape: S&P 500 entered a bear market on June 13, the 20th bear market in the past 140 years; average peak to trough bear decline = 37.3%, average duration 289 days; history is no guide to future performance but if it were, today’s bear market would end on Oct 19, 2022 (35-year anniversary of Black Monday) with S&P 500 at 3000; good news. Avg bull market duration is 64 months with 198% return, so next bull sees SPX at 6000 by Feb’28.

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