Shell shows how easy it is to fix energy

It’s back to tits and giggles for the MSM as the Australian energy crisis intensifies:

At the beginning of the year, NEM average prices were under $50MWh. Now they are at $350MWh and still trending higher.

If these prices are sustained then it will rip $50bn+ out of the east coast economy as a purely pointless war-profiteering inflation shock. Plus add 3%+ to CPI, ensuring much higher interest rates and much deeper house price falls.

It’s pure and unadulterated lunacy.

We all know how easy it is to fix. Install domestic reservation, export levies or super-profits taxes on the gas and coal export cartels that are leaving Australia short of energy.

They can declare force majeur as easy as this:

An industrial dispute boilover has forced lucrative gas exports to be cut from one of Australia‘s newest LNG plants, adding to a worsening gas crunch amid an escalating global energy crisis.

Shell cancelled shipments from its troubled Prelude floating liquefied gas facility in another blow to global gas supplies, confirming on Tuesday it had notified customers on Tuesday it had cancelled cargoes until “at least mid-July”, amid union claims the company was preparing to lock out workers at the offshore facility.

The global energy giant has been at loggerheads with unions over a pay claim for months, with unions operating under the banner head of the Offshore Alliance winning permission to take protected industrial action – including a ban on “any work to facilitate the side-by-side mooring of tankers or vessels” – from June 22.

A pissant labour dispute and Shell plays the force majeur card. This happens ALL OF THE TIME in energy markets.

For something as critical as affordable energy supply to the entire economy, there is no sovereign risk in curtailing the cartels, only risk to the sovereign if you don’t.

Houses and Holes
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Comments

  1. oil man’s need is greater than sri lanka apparently. we should nut-up and support our region. The region see’s us as human sized white norman pirate rodents.

  2. Display NameMEMBER

    How many times does this have to be said before a politician can act in the best interests of the sovereign?

    • I have an inkling that Labor are ‘happy enough’ to let fossil fuel prices stay high here so that they can push the renewables agenda harder…

      Whilst I’m sympathetic, it’s going to ruin a huge number of households and businesses, and Labor don’t even look like trying to substantially support them before they are hollowed out. Frankly, it’s starting to look like mismanagement because critical, and sometime irreversible, shorter-term issues are being sacrificed for the longer-term.

      • PalimpsestMEMBER

        Renewables – absolutely important. But without domestic gas reservation any substitution by renewables just gets exported. That keeps the price out of control. This is a problem where there is actually no shortage of gas coming out of the ground. The issue is that every cu m that can be sold at high prices, is sold at high prices anywhere it can be. We could be at 80% renewables and the NEM price would be the same.

        • The grocery fuel energy mortgage shock is ripping money from people needlessly that can’t be spent on solar and batteries and EVs also

          Terrible feedback loop

          Labor are really sh7tting the bed here unless they’re waiting for the ACCC report for cover

        • Agree, the issues are not so binary as labor would have us believe. They have inferred – green good, fossil bad, transition unnecessary. I wonder how much sway the greens are having in this lack of action, for me, Albo and Labor are just sealing a 1 term fate for themselves. It should have been such a big win for them, easy money so to speak.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        It’d be a bold play given Labor’s shaky climate credibility outside the ALP rustadons and the timeframe it will take to start relieving the end consumer’s problems.

        Not sure the Greens would be any better vis-a-vis a domestic reservation, but they’d at least be more than happy to tax the fvck out of the fossil fuel industry in the interim.

      • Well, if people want to get rid of coal then the most feasible option is to replace it with gas (if the gas can be affordable).

  3. Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

    Seriously Labour grow a spine! Do you care about poor Australians or not? Bowen’s waffling is hopeless.

  4. Quantitative FleecingMEMBER

    Why aren’t they actually acting on it? Surely they understand the consequences?

    Is it that Bowen and King lack the ability to rein in the cartels, is it just stupidity and hope that the public will buy electric cars as a result or is it just good ol’ corruption where they’re compromised?

    Every time Chris Bowen has appeared for a Live TV press conference on ABC to discuss the energy crisis he’s looked like he’s staring at the grim reaper and trying to pretend he’s not there.

    • PalimpsestMEMBER

      As a 2+ year EV owner = true believer – EV’s aren’t going to solve the problem. On a Sunday coming through Mittagong, leaving early to get into the charging queue, I had to wait 15 minutes for the car ahead. While I was plugged in 2 Teslas queued, and another three cruised past checking it out. And that’s just the ones I saw. I spent most of my charge time drinking coffee inside, clearing some email, and a visit to the loo. There’s no charging infrastructure for the EV’s we have now, let alone more.

      Plus, EV’s consume …. electricity. Sure, the existing chargers are all on green electricity contracts so they’re not going up for a year or two. But additional capacity? market prices. Renewables? It takes time to set up. And any gas consumption replaced … just gets exported. If we do save electricity by turning lights off, it doesn’t benefit fellow Australians (when there’s no domestic reservation) because any gas we don’t use just gets sent overseas and keeps the price of electricity up.

      • I’ve seen a crap lad of E-bikes. They seem like a great solution. Need far less charging, take up far less space on the roads, perfect for the commutes most people do and nipping down the shops

        but lycra
        but sharing the roads

        • SkepticviewerMEMBER

          Lycra — very bad should be fine-able on charges of Scaring citizen’s retinas for life.

        • I have an e-scooter that I use for almost all of my suburban travel these days…gym trips, small scale shopping, pub visits etc. I’ve done about 600 km in the last few months. It’s the way of the future.

      • Display NameMEMBER

        In the 1980’s there were stuff all mobile phone towers. There are now 20K+ towers, mostly owned by 1-2 companies and leased back to the telcos. And the technology on them has been upgraded at least three times in that period.

        All the evidence is that each cycle of technology is faster than the last. Each cycle leverages the knowledge of previous rollouts to leapfrog problems. China did not do fixed line phones at any scale. And remember we have had a lost decade at least with the LNP in power federally.

    • bolstroodMEMBER

      Chris Bowen is not the man for this job. Indeed there is not anyone in Cabinet with the courage to take it on.
      I am not sure Labor has the intestinal fortitude to take on the Cartel.
      Too many donations over too many years.
      Too many senior figures in the fossil fuel industry revolving doors

      CAPTURED.

    • Bro, just buy a $70,000 electric vehicle

      The absolute STATE of the Australian economy.

    • TheLambKingMEMBER

      Every time Chris Bowen has appeared for a Live TV press conference on ABC to discuss the energy crisis he’s looked like he’s staring at the grim reaper and trying to pretend he’s not there.

      Which is still a step up from Angus Taylor!!! Whos job was to ride shotgun for the fossil fuel industry and gaslight the Australian public.

      I just love how Australia has been ground to a halt over the last 9 years and talking about voting them back in because Labor can’t undo/fix the mess in a month.

      • Oh Totes where art thouMEMBER

        I don’t think anyone is saying we should vote LNP. But it’s a recognition that Labor still claims to try to do things that benefit the people, while the LNP’s motto is “burn the country down for profit”.

        The masses will vote the LNP back to power – ether directly or via preferences if Labor doesn’t address the gas issue.

        It’s also to do with perceptions. Labor needs to come out strongly and say “we will enforce domestic gas reservation by legislation if the gas companies don’t do it willingly by the time Parliament resumes”. Sit back and watch the fireworks. Now is the time to do that, while the polls are still good. They can ride out the attacks and when prices come down and people notice their bills go down they’ll reward Labor.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      EVs are still too limited in selection, too high in cost and waiting lists are 6-12 months. There’s no solution there for _years_.

      Being the optimist I am, I have a hope that Labor are just waiting for suitable political cover / scapegoats. I’m prepared to give them 3-6 months to start sorting sh!t out.

      • And just wait till there are enough EVs out there that their after-work charging becomes a problem for our fragile electricity grid (Origin are already concerned about this). At best you’ll have to pay a premium rate to charge your EV in the evening (which will erode a lot of the savings of not buying petrol), and at worst the smart chargers will shut off charging to your vehicle when there’s too much load on the grid or not enough supply (such as cold winter evenings).

        I wonder if that will affect how many people want to shell out for an EV? Personally I’m leaning toward a plugin hybrid for my next car, if I can get one for a decent price.

        • TheLambKingMEMBER

          And just wait till there are enough EVs out there that their after-work charging becomes a problem for our fragile electricity grid (Origin are already concerned about this).

          And just wait till there are enough EVs out there that their after-work feeding power back into the grid when required for profit and makes our grid cheaper and more stable. AND every home smart charger has the ability to charge when it is cheapest/most available! So they don’t charge straight away, but when the power is cheaper (like your electric hot water.)

          • So in a hypothetical renewable grid powered mostly by wind and solar, what time of day would the “off-peak” period be where there is excess supply of electricity?

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            Depending on where you are and the time of year, approx 10am to 4pm.

            In the future, when just about everything exposed to the sky is covered in some form of solar panel, daytime electricity will be practically (if not actually) free.

          • In SA off-peak is now 10am-3pm if you get a modern electricity plan. Last year there were a few days where SA had a negative grid demand due to rooftop PV output.

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          And just wait till there are enough EVs out there that their after-work charging becomes a problem for our fragile electricity grid (Origin are already concerned about this). At best you’ll have to pay a premium rate to charge your EV in the evening (which will erode a lot of the savings of not buying petrol), and at worst the smart chargers will shut off charging to your vehicle when there’s too much load on the grid or not enough supply (such as cold winter evenings).

          Smart chargers will allow vehicle charging to be deferred away from the afternoon/evening peak to later evening / early morning, which power generators will be very happy with as these are otherwise very low consumption times (ie: it flattens their curves).

          Even at 240v the “typical” EV will only need 4-8hrs of top-up charging each night, so it will actually work out pretty well.

          Longer term (say, 10 years down the track – about as EVs are beginning to become the majority), publicly accessible charge points will become commonplace (eg: every other carpark will have one, particularly off-street parking) so “idle” charging will shift to the daytime, when solar power will make it nearly (if not entirely) free.

          Fearmongering about the grid is pretty much just that. A smart Government would be looking to a) define, mandate and subsidise a minimum level of “smart” charger to help manage the grid and b) have EV manufacturers setup their vehicles to default to only charge outside, say, 4-9pm (I’m assuming most EVs will facilitate scheduled charging – I know Teslas do – as it would be a very useful feature to take advantage of off-peak tariffs).

          • “Smart chargers will allow vehicle charging to be deferred away from the afternoon/evening peak to later evening / early morning, which power generators will be very happy with as these are otherwise very low consumption times (ie: it flattens their curves).

            Even at 240v the “typical” EV will only need 4-8hrs of top-up charging each night, so it will actually work out pretty well.”

            “Longer term (say, 10 years down the track – about as EVs are beginning to become the majority), publicly accessible charge points will become commonplace (eg: every other carpark will have one, particularly off-street parking) so “idle” charging will shift to the daytime, when solar power will make it nearly (if not entirely) free.”

            “Fearmongering about the grid is pretty much just that. A smart Government would be looking to a) define, mandate and subsidise a minimum level of “smart” charger to help manage the grid and b) have EV manufacturers setup their vehicles to default to only charge outside, say, 4-9pm (I’m assuming most EVs will facilitate scheduled charging – I know Teslas do – as it would be a very useful feature to take advantage of off-peak tariffs).”

            For a grid powered primarily by reliable generators (gas, nuclear, hydro) this would work well, since generators can continue providing however much electricity is needed throughout the night to charge the EVs, when the power isn’t needed for other stuff.

            However in a grid powered primarily by intermittent generation such as solar and wind (if this is even possible) the electricity supply bottoms out at around 2:30AM, at well below half of the daytime peak supply. And this is when most EVs should be charging. So where is all the power going to come from to both repay the power that the EVs used for driving during the day PLUS the power they lent to the grid during the evening peak? This is really the opposite supply curve vs what we’d want.

            Therefore the only option is for most EV users to charge during the day while they are at work and weather dependent generation is peaking, as you mentioned. Which circles back to my original point, which is that EV owners will not get to charge their vehicle whenever they like, unless perhaps they are willing to pay a premium to do so (best case).

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            For a grid powered primarily by reliable generators (gas, nuclear, hydro) this would work well, since generators can continue providing however much electricity is needed throughout the night to charge the EVs, when the power isn’t needed for other stuff.

            This is what the grid looks like today.

            However in a grid powered primarily by intermittent generation such as solar and wind (if this is even possible) the electricity supply bottoms out at around 2:30AM, at well below half of the daytime peak supply.

            This is what the grid will (probably) look like in ~20-40 years.

            Therefore the only option is for most EV users to charge during the day while they are at work and weather dependent generation is peaking, as you mentioned. Which circles back to my original point, which is that EV owners will not get to charge their vehicle whenever they like, unless perhaps they are willing to pay a premium to do so (best case).

            That didn’t seem like your original point at all, but whatever.

            Most EV drivers won’t want/need to charge their vehicles on demand, because the vast majority of cars spend most of their time parked (either at home or at work/shops/gym/whatever) and only drive 25-50km/day. So long as they have a charger near where they’re parked – which they most likely will when 50% of the vehicles on the road are EVs in 15 years or so – then that will be how EVs are charged.

            If people could pay 10c a litre for someone to top their car up every morning at 3am, or $2 a litre to get fuel any time they wanted, when do you think MOST of them would be fuelling up MOST of the time ?

            TL;DR: there’s not going to be any grid related problems with EVs and typical vehicle usage patterns mean frequent top-up charging will be easy.

  5. My experience has been that supply contracts are almost always written in favour of suppliers, except for those suppliers that have a conscience, which is almost always none. As someone who has been pine-appled by suppliers, they will invoke force-majeure at the most minor of impacts on their business, but they still hold “customers as a core value”…..my ar$e. And I’m talking about domestic suppliers into domestic markets.

  6. Always remember that politicians are hollow shells of things. They are owned and operated by other forces. Whenever Albo, Bowen et al say something, they are just mouthing the words that are actually being spoken by their puppet masters.

    Right now their owners are making bank from the energy crisis, so the energy crisis will continue unabated.

    If anybody can offer an alternative explanation for Labor’s failure to act I’d like to hear it.

    • They had one issue given to them on a plate by the ‘no’alition, that they could grab by the scruff of the neck and ‘solve’, with extensive public support along the way.
      You don’t get opportunities like this every term, to make the outgoing lot look so incompetent.
      They have so far, fvcked it up royally, and the next 3 yrs is going to be hard to watch, if this is any guide.

    • WEF great reset agenda. If enacted then this economic carnage is intentional. Engineer destruction to create a power vacuum then power grab by offering welfare(slavery) contract. It’s not like they haven’t been broadcasting their intentions and bragging about all the politicians they have in the bag.

      • Fishing72MEMBER

        Yep. Particularly when you look at who actually constitutes the WEF support crew ie basically every large multinational corporation in the world. They can’t wait till there is an unelected central global authority able to exert open control over national governments to install the penultimate evolution of the public / private neoliberalism we have been getting a taste of over the past few decades.

        The WEF will be telling sovereign nations what they must do, the populations of the sovereign nations will be made to pay for the changes and the multinationals will assume all the profit but none of the financial risk. It’s just an extension of the IMF loans program to developed countries and with no alternative but to accede to the WEF demands dressed up as solutions to “global emergencies “ like climate change and pandemics.

        You’ll own nothing and be happy…lol.

        More likely you’ll exist with everything you would’ve previously owned now owned by a multinational and rented by you in a subscription operation. Everything from housing to transport.

        You’ll own nothing ….whilst they’ll own everything.

        Basically a ploy to send the plebs back into provincial serfdom as the elites expand their footprint of luxury and indulgence.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      If anybody can offer an alternative explanation for Labor’s failure to act I’d like to hear it.

      The obvious one is even with a lower-house majority they are cowed after 10+ years of pretty much the entire establishment working against them and looking for political cover before doing anything remotely controversial.

      • I think you’re giving them too much credit. They have an option to take hugely popular measures that would immensely benefit the people of the country and their electoral fortunes at the expense of the Great Princes. And they have decided to act in favour of the Great Princes. This is because they are owned by the Great Princes.

  7. and why is Juice Media also so quiet on this nation-destroying issue? Surely they can grasp the concept of domestic reservation?

    I suspect they’re just too embarrassed to have to acknowledge that nat gas is a necessary part of the energy transition…

    • There is no “energy transition”. Renewables have gone from providing 10% of the world’s energy to a decade ago to 11% today, and that figure includes hydro/geothermal. When looking just at solar/wind it’s about 3% of global energy generation (after having been commercially available for many decades). And almost all of that is electricity, which is the easiest energy sector to displace fossil fuels.

      The media, activists, politicians etc love to talk about the “energy transition” as if it’s something we’re midway through. But we are not. The world is just as dependent on fossil fuels as it ever was, and the only feasible way to reduce carbon emissions with current technology, if that’s something the public desires, is to replace coal with nat gas in the short/med term and nuclear in the long term. By believing in unviable solutions like solar/wind we are blind to solutions which are actually viable.

  8. David WilsonMEMBER

    The government should immediately set rules for east coast gas reservation and sell it for less than $7 a gigajoul.
    How about getting off the pot and also work on building nuclear power plants.
    All this is about the scare mongering of climate change when our BOM told us last year was Australian’s 19 th warmest year, scientists tell us last year was our planets 5th year in a row that was cooler than 2016 … what climate crisis I keep asking.
    BOM records tell us we had more rain in the 1830’s so what’s the problem exactly.
    My recent studies tell me there are over 350 coal fired and nuclear power stations currently being planned and under construction and somehow we dunces think closing down a dozen power stations will save the planet.
    Meanwhile in the real world our wonderful switch to renewables is being exposed as a very expensive fraud that is slowly castrating our economy.

    • TheLambKingMEMBER

      All this is about the scare mongering of climate change when our BOM told us last year was Australian’s 19 th warmest year, scientists tell us last year was our planets 5th year in a row that was cooler than 2016 … what climate crisis I keep asking.
      BOM records tell us we had more rain in the 1830’s so what’s the problem exactly.

      I still can’t work out if you are just not very bright or are willfully gaslighting?