Recession cracks widen

Excellent stuff from The Market Ear today. The MB thesis is catching on.

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So the 10 year reversed on the huge 3% level a few sessions ago, managed retracing around 50% of the move lower from highs and is now approaching the trend line that comes in at 3.10%. A close below 3.10% and things risk go very “dynamic”. Watch that trend line closely as well as the 50 day at 3%.

Refinitiv

Yields decoupling?

Are yields decoupling (permanently), or do we see some mean reversion take place from here? The gaps are rather wide…

CS

Recession cracks

TS Lombard says sell the latest rally in equities. Main bullets are:

STIR markets have brought forward insurance cuts and increased their magnitude, while forward curves are sending a worrying signal

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.