MB Fund Podcast: Is there a property crash brewing? Catherine Cashmore says NO.

In this investment podcast, Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, Buyers Advocate, Media Commentator and Economist, Catherine Cashmore, Chief Economist, Leith van Onselen and Senior Financial Adviser, Samuel Kerr, discussed whether a crash is in the future for Australian property.

Topics on the agenda today:

  • Current Affordability
  • Interest rate forecasts
  • Impact on Aussie households and economy
  • Is there a property crash brewing?
  • Investment implications

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Samuel Kerr is a Senior Financial Adviser at the MacroBusiness Fund, which is powered by Nucleus Wealth.

 

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The information on this blog contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Samuel Kerr is an Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Limited, Australian Financial Services Licensee 515796. And Nucleus Wealth is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd.

 

Comments

  1. I loathe that Cashmore woman who moved into Aus. Several years ago, She identified that there were homes just in close city area which had 560 m2 blocks keenly valued by desperate families with children needing backyards she said and recommended investment purchase and subdivision by speculators.

  2. Cashmore seems to have been pretty accurate to date – her and Cameron Murray

  3. jsdavis50MEMBER

    In Cycles, Trends and Forecasts Ms Cashmore predicts an 18 year real estate cycle will peak in 2025/26, followed by a dramatic fall in prices.

    • Do you know the why for that time period? I’d heard about the land bubble cycle and that it was around 18 years yet when I tried to find out why I couldn’t find anything solid.

      • jsdavis50MEMBER

        Have a look at her chart. It goes back to 1955 and she claims that their is an 18 year cycle since then. Haven’t seen any Australian housing price charts to verify this.

    • Because it coincides with peak working age population being passed, stagnation and ageing i.e. bottom end of baby boomers will be well into transition to retirement, and downsizing.

  4. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Well, as right as she may have been in the past, she’s 100% wrong this time! She talks her own book too much.

  5. tragic traderMEMBER

    Gee that sounded like she was very much defending all the people she had convinced they had till 25/26 and didnt like the idea this whole cycle has been sped up. If things never changed no one would get it wrong and everyone would be rich

    • Catherine’s points:
      – Households still flush and wages going up
      – Investors still piling in seeing property as a hedge on inflation, rents still going up
      – Blockchain buyers are going to buy in mass
      – People are borrowing conservatively
      – We can use 2000s and 1970s as analogues

      Great theories, but the reality on the street is that people can’t borrow as much, people can’t pay as much, so prices are coming down.

      Never heard her get that narky at Leith. My assessment: she’s sucked on the Phil Anderson 18.6 year cycle cool-aide, and as tragic trader pointed out above – she has signed up a bunch of clients who will lynch her.

  6. – I like the views of Catherine Cashmore very much but in this case I didn’t hear any solid reason from her why a property crash is NOT on the cards.

    • KategedMEMBER

      Agree. She is usually quite logical. This was the first time I felt that even she didn’t believe what she was saying. All of her faith is in her property cycle which is about to be rekt early, like the Bitcoin 4 year cycle, by tightening financial conditions.

  7. She is in imo responsible for statements she makes to the speculators. She is responsible imo for recognising the needs of owners for a family home in close commuting to school and work while advising speculators to quickly grab this type of property subdivide, profit and produce a ghetto of rentables similar to apartments with minimal land space. I think she as an American has no interest in Australia or Australians other than squeezing profit. And you say of course.