Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A sea of red across Asian share markets as the sharp reversal in risk sentiment on Wall Street overnight spreads to all risk markets. The USD is continuing its surge in strength against most of the undollars, with the Australian dollar smacked down below the 69 cent level as oil prices are trying to stabilise with Brent crude holding on to its gains above the $113USD per barrel level while gold is now struggling to keep the biggest bears away, depressed and ready to breakdown at the $1820USD per ounce level:

Mainland Chinese share markets are slumping towards the close with the Shanghai Composite down more than 0.5% to 3385 points while the Hang Seng Index is in full reverse mode with a 1.5% loss, currently at 22034 points. Japanese stock markets are also under stress, with the Nikkei 225 index closing 1% lower at 26788  points while the USDJPY pair has retraced slightly to be back below the 136 handle:

Australian stocks couldn’t escape the selling with the ASX200 finishing more than 0.9% lower, closing at exactly 6700 points. The Australian dollar can’t find a bottom here, having failed to get back above the 70 cent level against USD, its now rolled over and heading towards the previous weekly low at the 68.80 level t:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are down as we head into the European open, with the S&P500 four hourly futures chart showing price action now fully retraced below the previous resistance level, with the bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern proving quite false indeed:

The economic calendar includes the all too critical German inflation print, followed by the final US GDP print and a trio of central banker head speeches later in the evening.

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  1. Aaaand another 2 bite the dust: Affordable Modular Homes Pty and Statement Builders Pty Ltd.
    Make that 3: Fire Services Australia (FSA) Group

  2. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China … Get real about China … Lei explains brilliantly …

    Why did our China policy fail? We ignored 2 questions regarding the Chinese economy … Lei’s Real Talk … Youtube
    … h/t PM …

    In the 70-odd years since World War II, the free world has responded to the communist threat in two ways. The first is the Cold-War model against the former Soviet Union, and the second is the “engagement through investment” model used with China. The massive investments the free world sent to China did not change the Chinese Communist Party but made the regime even more aggressive. What has prevented people in the free world from recognizing the failure of their China policies? … view via hyperlink above …

    … Remember what Professor Niall Ferguson has to say about the influence of the internet …

    Historian Niall Ferguson on the roots of today’s political polarization … Long Now Foundation … Youtube

    and too … Professor of Transport Studies at the University of Sydney, David Levinson …

    David Levinson … The New New Normal … The Transportist

    … and for good measure … Professor Stephen Kotkin of Princeton University and the Hoover Institution …

    5 Questions for Stephen Kotkin … interviewed by Peter Robinson … Hoover Institution

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      China got too rich, too fast. The demand for resources to keep the Chinese economy running means war is inevitable.

  3. Is globalisation a good thing, or a bad thing?

    When COVID has gone and the war is over, will we return to the patterns of international trade we were enjoying just a few years ago? Steve Keen says not, which puts him in the camp of anti-globalists that FT columnist Martin Wolf wrote about recently, in an article ‘The big mistakes of the anti-globalisers’. This week Phil puts some of Martin’s arguments to Steve, including the evidence that international trade has significantly boosted GDP globally and helped reduce extreme poverty. Won’t a more self-sufficient approach turn back the clock on both those achievements. Listen in for why Steve thinks times have changed for good, as we focus on sustainability over efficiency.

    • Yes globalization reduced extreme poverty and lifted GDP at a gloval level but is has come at a terrible cost and destabilized global financial systems and societies in developed countries.

      I’m glad it is ending.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Not wrong, probably, allegedly. ABC was crystal clear on this exact point earlier this week – there were only three Ministers with the authority to instruct a new recruitment and selection round to be commenced. We all know who one of them was.

        The fun part is Dear Dominic might have been on the receiving end of a very cunning briefing from one of them prior to terminating the earlier process. Fun times ahead!

  4. Labor needs to make tough decisions now

    The new Labor Government faces fundamental issues that it must confront quickly or risk one term with Peter Dutton as Prime Minister in 2025, writes Kieran Simpson.

    The first issue that Labor has to confront is unsurprisingly the gas “markets”. While the war in Ukraine was the straw, the camel’s back was a contorted mess to begin with. There is no gas “supply crisis” as Australia is the largest exporter of gas. What we have is an allocation problem.

  5. haroldusMEMBER

    I’m angry at the recent hikes in the price of electricity, but I refuse to yell at the meter.

    That would just be an abuse of power.

  6. Grand Funk RailroadMEMBER

    For anyone interested……

    From one of the earlier posts vis China which somehow mentioned census data released in the last week or so

    data here

    follow up comment mentioning Eric Kaufman here

    ‘Eric Kaufmann has a differing analysis of those figures:’

    I am not sure where Eric Kaufman is getting his figures from

    I am seeing 89% of Australians reported to the ABS that they were NW European, Eastern or Southern European, or US, Canada or South Africa…….

    ….and a further 6% were ‘not stated’

    Of the same data you could claim that about 95% of Australians were to all intents and purposes Caucasian or white, particularly if you add circa 2% of other nations pretty white on the streets of Sydney and Melbourne

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The number doesn’t add up to 100% on the right hand column because a person can have two ancestry. 90% does seem a bit high..

      • Grand Funk RailroadMEMBER

        Yeah I get that, but I dont think 90% is that far out. Maybe 85 or so. I know an English doctor working in the burbs of Geelong who told me that it is the whitest place he has ever worked – I asked him if there was any ethnic/race factor in what people get bad hayfever, he reckoned Islanders and some Middle east people got it bad.

          • Grand Funk RailroadMEMBER

            Victoria and its debt…..

            I think my home State actually needs to have a housing crash (circa 30%) and some major economic restructuring to become competitive at something so as to earn income. I also think it needs to get a square deal out of the Federal budget (or squarer than its had in yonks). It needs to get off its population ponzi addiction, and have a University shake out….

            It wont do any of the above so I presume it will become a mendicant State, reliant on Federal transfer payments, full of bullshit jobs.

            I do think it could corner a niche for Russians looking to get money out of Russia to somewhere else, but it is +30 odd in Moscow today so it should probably wait a couple of months to pitch that idea.

  7. Grand Funk RailroadMEMBER

    Can someone point me in the direction of one of those web sites which one might use to get around a paywall for a media outfit to read a page?