See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
Some solid gains to finish the week on Asian share markets with risk sentiment firming following last night’s late rebound on Wall Street. The USD remains strong against most of the undollars, with the Australian dollar hovering around the 69 cent level. Oil prices are trying to stabilise but are ending up drifting sideways, with Brent crude just above the $110USD per barrel level while gold is still depressed at the $1824USD per ounce level. Interestingly, the four hourly chart of Bitcoin is looking very similar to that of the S&P500 (see bottom of report) – is this the actual bottom?

Mainland Chinese share markets are again accelerating into the close with the Shanghai Composite up more than 0.8% to 3347 points while the Hang Seng Index has gained nearly 1.6%, currently at 21641 points. Japanese stock markets however are playing catchup after their previous scratch sessions with the Nikkei 225 index about to close more than 1.2% higher at 26501 points while the USDJPY pair has continued its overnight drop, now below the 135 handle after failing to stabilise after its early week breakout:

Australian stocks were able to put in modest gains, with the ASX200 about to finish nearly 0.8% higher at 6575 points. The Australian dollar is trying to find a bottom here, having been depressed below the 69 cent level against USD in the second half of the week:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are pushing higher going into the European open, with the S&P500 four hourly futures chart showing price action no longer anchored above the 3700 point level as it now begins to threaten the May lows (lower horizontal black line) that have acted as firm resistance, with a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern almost complete:

The economic calendar includes the closely watched German IFO survey, then the US Michigan consumer sentiment print.
Have a good weekend!
- Macro Afternoon - August 16, 2022
- Macro Morning - August 16, 2022
- Macro Afternoon - August 15, 2022
That’s some fast typing there CB.
And 🐑🥈!
You mean 🐑 🏅
Back on the winnners list baby
Ewe tu Brutus?
We are!
Kooyong curse is finally broken!!!!
Bring out your sundries
[email protected]
You usually put this post in reply to Harry’s first post in the weekend links…
Is everything OK? Wink if you are abducted
More good stuff from fat wolverine…NSW continues to rot from Perrotitis…
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/perrottet-lumbers-nsw-taxpayers-with-106-billion-in-extra-debt-20220623-p5aw6i
He’s been ramming him hard recently on his twitter
Laughing at that flag pole etc..I always thought of him pro LNP
Yes, but he’s a bit of an eminence gris…it’s not just an article he wrote; it’s a targeted message to certain people. You always feel the threat behind his writing.
Ugh … this whole framing of debt is wrong … is it for productive enterprise with a social good or just a BJ for the wealth set … taxes groan ….
I’m sure you know the answer to that even without reading the article.
“Since Premier Dominic Perrottet was appointed NSW treasurer in January 2017, he has presided over an unprecedented, $106 billion surge in taxpayer debt.”
I mean do you feel NSW is a bit like Brazil and need a IMF loan so bond holders get saved and then the unwashed get crammed down to pay for it – rinse and repeat …
PS at some point it just get so stoopid …
tldr; he’s a neoliberal halfwit that says whatever stupid sh!t is in his brain at the time.
Eminence gris?
if you are not referring to the typo, then:
https://www.google.com/search?q=eminence+grise&rlz=1C1GCEA_enAU1011AU1011&oq=eminence+gris&aqs=chrome.0.0i512j69i57j0i512l8.2600j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
and if you are: fk off ;-p
I was actually curious as to what it means as I’d never heard the term
Cheers
So, what’s another half a million for a good mate, then:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-23/john-barilaro-quit-politics-day-after-trade-job-email/101178272
But wait, there’s more:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-24/investment-nsw-ceo-to-front-john-barilaro-inquiry/101179994
And Friendly Jordies is accused of besmirching his character!
That Bruz could rise to be leader of the National party and deputy premier shows just how bad the rot has become in NSW. The NSW government is another example of the depths to which the liberal and national parties have fallen in this country. Pity NSW Labor is the alternative.
Don’t like the NSW Labor?
Be the alternative or stfu
Lock. Us. Down! now.
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/ways-not-seen-before-new-covid-warning-as-subvariants-spread-throughout-the-community/news-story/13bb497dc03cb59a2cfee11da13ee573
Or, how about you just fck off with this rubbish. No one gives a sh1t anymore accept the last of the chicken sh1ts.
Lucky nyleta he got to be named by you personally
Even worse rubbish. Normal flu, some doc wants it to be treated like Covid, masks, lockdowns, etc.
Execute the fckers trying to control our every move like those evil carnts! I’m never wearing a mask properly ever again and I’ll erase any fckr that tries to make me wear one including cops!! When I see a mask wearer I see a gutless prick, or an Asian. I’m no chinamen!!
omg he’s ponced right off the reservation.
Nyleta posted some links that clearly demonstrate this is not the case
Just because it doesn’t suit your desires/ideology doesn’t make it so
I’m still chicken. Don’t care what some nancy power walker thinks. Go have a latte ya ponce
Grow a pair ya girl
Girls power walk, I pimp walk.
Neck up ya oxygen thief.
LOLOLOL
Here’s a challenge Reus.
Justify your existence.
I’m happy if you provide the answer from the point of view of the character or as the person behind the character as I feel either way you won’t answer as you’re a soulless grub or it’ll just be a bunch of piddle because you’re a soulless grub
Go on bud, have a crack, justify why you exist and why anyone should care.
😅😂🤣
As expected…..
Jog on parasite
You mad bloke?
This is why I should subscribe. This.
Edit: you haven’t been trying to grow tomatoes recently by any chance?
@TTW my garden is bumping bra, got fhe full winter veg selection going and some surprising toms and chillis still fruiting despite the cold chill. And a nice reminder to that dumb old real estate dingus that tried to tell me grass doesn’t grow in winter – the driveway and courtyard rehab is booming in the cold (the real challenge is trying to get the Kikuyu seeds in at the right time and then not drive on em!!)
👍
(but I knew there would be tomatoes – they always make the growers angry)
Edit: I’m about to get mandarins… they’re rippening in winter for their first ever crop. Truly weird but not complaining.
Tatar we had multiple crops of mandies inNNsw in2019 it was truly weird
All at different times
@W/F +1 for dingus. Don’t think I’ve read that since Raymond Chandler.
“LOLOLOL”
Does anyone find this character play pantomime funny?
Seeing through the whole thing it just seems weak.
Own your views and you’re ability to support them / or don’t. But why express them and then kneecap yourself with the “entertainment” get out clause thing. I don’t see the point.
@Sweeper You must be new around here.
AHAHAHA Labor supporters. Never met a good one. They are just not very nice people.
.
“AHAHAHA Labor supporters. Never met a good one. They are just not very nice people”
why even post that though. what’s the point?
Jeez. Anyone here who isn’t growing tomatoes at the moment? Anyone?
https://coronavirus.quora.com/
I’d pretty much take you out for the well being of life for all regardless of anything else reus ….
“Neil Jeans, principal of anti-money laundering consultant Initialism, told the Senate inquiry that Australia, Haiti and Madagascar are the only nations out of 195 that haven’t acted to apply anti-money laundering laws to lawyers, accountants, real estate agents, trust and company service providers.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/from-casinos-to-houses-why-australia-remains-a-money-laundering-haven-20220622-p5avnd.html
What on earth is an “anti-money laundering consultant” doing in a place like this?
Sounds un-Australian to me.
Laundering money, obviously.
Such a naughty nanny.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10947759/Pet-goat-allegedly-stolen-Tasmanian-property-sexually-abused-cops-DNA-swab-animal.html
Consensual?
So goat fcukers do exist then …..wonder if ( he )
was vi [email protected] …..
Where do you think most of the STDs came from in human history ….
Greeks
.
Republicans.
Wellie they are herders of a sort ….
The man is described as tall and was wearing a beanie and a dark tracksuit…..
only clue there is he’s a tall goat fcker, beanie and tracksuit is literally every male in tassie 🤣
“see over there- I build all those houses. Look across the bay- all those Beautiful boats- I build them all. But do they call me Chris the Boat builder? NO. Do they call me Chris the House builder? NO.
Just one goat……”
Does not rule out the canny use of a milking stool by certain members completely.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/geelongbased-building-company-waterford-homes-collapses/news-story/c1f2b950f0b43b2c0e79eaf681fb1a56
I’ve lost count how many construction companies collapsed, need a counter like DLS fűķcrpto articles
Tis just history repeating, we’ve been through this cycle before, it’s not always for the same reasons but there’s usually the same root causes. If you don’t know the causes, don’t worry, skippy will jam them down your throat sharpish.
I miss when he at least used to occausonally interrupt his diatribes to tell us what meat he had on the grill. Skip is a decent home cook going off what he has posted.
Indeed, I find him more acceptable when he breaks away from that character of economics professor he wants to impress everyone with
Literally gonna be you in 10 years ;’-)
I don’t see myself hanging around that long tbh
I have a time in my mind when I’ll be leaving
oh no please brer Fox, please stay!
ya reckon MB is still here in 10?
^^ I don’t know, there will be always a need for forum for like minded people
This forum gathers patriotic, left leaning, high house prices haters, majority intelligent people, and they like to talk economics and shït
TTP also Clayton Oliver JV7 and EL15 appreciation society
Cooking and eating are just interludes between battle ….
I gave up on everything but the food and drink skip. I’m pretty happy when I don’t let reality seep in lol. It has a bad habit of seeping in though….
OK [email protected] …. let me see … oh yeah … so as a late teen I was in RIP [Ranger Indoctrination Program/filter] before getting into my respective Company, basically just an exercise to make people quit due to physical or mental excesses. Lmmao on one rainy day we did PT and everyone thought due to it we would get off light, no epic run in Jungle boots doing 7 min miles for about 6K and about 1hr of calisthenics. OMG it was so much worse, running up and down three flights of stairs with your buddy on your back, hundreds of push ups and sit ups and even more diabolical the flutter kick after it all … basically back to the ground … spread out like jebus … and legs 6″ off the ground and move legs like swimming up and down whilst not going beyond the 6″ off he ground. Its a 4 count exercise … try 200 of those puppies …
Best bit was when I was at the end getting a wee bit puffed I had a haft African/native American spiting in my face from above to quit and when that did not work started doing star/jumping jacks over my head whilst singing YMCA …
Oi skip, what’s for dinner?
Also skip, I truly respect the seppo selection process, but pray tell oh master of the hard graft, how many days have you spent @ holsworthy in confinement? Oh that’s right, you haven’t, so you don’t know true sadism of the Oz MP, sure, try and compare your soft equivalent but I’ve heard from those in the know that there is no comparison. And after all old fella, all I did was try and compliment your cookin. Get nodded ya old fool
Grilled Quesadilla omelets made with red onion, red&green capsicum sliced thin, same for mushrooms, wee bit of smoked bacon, pickled jalapeno/red chili/garlic [homemade] on top w/ jack cheese on top browned in the griller and dashed with arrbol and chipolata spices served with a Mexican slaw and sour cream …
“holsworthy in confinement” 3 squares and a bed and no one is shooting at you or given orders to march to the front … as it be … groan on the U.S. prison system [quasi private], look up pelican where guards ran a betting pool for inmate fights to the death …
Which is more important G.I. your map awareness or getting laid down range and paying for it ….
Police are looking into it.
But are reporting they have yet to find any concrete evidence.
It looks like structural issues.
According to the engineering report there was a floor in the plan.
Although it looks like a complex situation.
Been spending some time around Komatsu/Hitachi/CAT mining machines lately and it really blows my mind seeing up close how big and ridiculous these things are but also how many small, fragile, essential parts keep them moving.
One machine that blew my mind was a rolling machine at Transfield West Australia. It rolled 300mm thick x 2.5M flat hard steel plate into a cylinder. Had to fix something on it by memory
Puts my hydraulic bending machine to shame. It only folds 25mm thick x 100mm wide.
That sag mill we were installing at Lihir Island weighed 300ton empty.
.
Winning.
Sounds interesting.
What were you doing ?
Now inform them about the slab under it and how its affixed …
How would I know, I’m not a concreter.
The amount of energy transferred to it boom
I’ve just been the logistics chump dropping off and picking up but have started to recognise the reality from the drawings in the workshop to what I’m seeing in the assembly yards. It’s pretty cool for a chump like me, learning about steel grades and welds and all that – I failed shop class in high school lol.
Cool that you mentioned Lihir, that mob I was workin for a year or 2 ago was running logistics for that mine, was such a varied mix for 3PL, everything from pens and dunny roll to cummins diesel crate engines to bullet proof panels for Hiluxes.
Protesters interrupt Chinese Ambassador’s address on relations with Australia.
https://youtu.be/2JL4uKqH20g?t=221
Not made to feel welcome at all. And when Laurenceson did put some pointed questions to Xiao, all I could hear as he spoke was https://youtu.be/9UXN4nlLHGE?t=34
Laurenceson had to help him with his answers on almost every occasion. Mend the relationship? There isnt one.
I wonder if Wang will pop up on this one?
Drew was there sticking it to him ….good
…..just tell them to fcuk right off and go polish their big dong missiles ….
Difficult. But not impossible.
Its different this time……..S & P should bounce to about 3950 before it heads down again
https://twitter.com/WilliamsonChris/status/1540008048701349888
Nothing surprises me any more. Reliance on the Fed stepping in means FOMO still exists.
Zombie companies need to die ……….. not get given life support every 6 months
Gen Z etc needs to taught that sh!t goes down and sometimes vertically.
Pretty sure crypto is teaching them that lesson atm
The zombies and the overleveraged need a kick in the pants. The only question is how long rates will stay elevated. A couple of years would sort them out
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/uncategorized/property-investors-we-borrowed-to-the-hilt-and-now-were-about-to-do-our-arse-feel-sorry-for-us/
Bumped into a neighbor who ‘upgraded’ to a snazzier street at the start of the year. Was rather glum: “We bought at the very top.”
This will be the top of the market
https://www.theage.com.au/property/news/the-65m-to-70m-mansion-poised-to-shatter-victorian-price-record-20220624-p5awal.html
😆 top of the market
Nah mate. This is only a rolling foothill to the Everest of greatness……
Hope he locked in his mortgage rate.
Buying and selling into the same market. Why should it matter? Unless he bit off more than he could chew?
I post a lot of junk. Some good, most bad. This is the best sports video I have ever seen. If I could figure out the rules I’d devote my Sundays to it.
https://youtu.be/tYrue4oXCbo
“Look how he fringes the ring there…”
And for some balance for us indignant cricket tragics…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-S-eeInJVk
Apparently it’s a Dutch take on silly British past times. (Not the naked gun clip. That’s an American take on silly American past times.)
The Dutch haven’t quite worked cricket out:
https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/england-in-netherlands-2022-1281442/netherlands-vs-england-1st-odi-1281444/full-scorecard
They are definitely tier 3 and a bit. Still, it’s good to see them getting matches against the big teams.
Interesting anecdote from my realestate agent in Canberra today.
The market is already down 10% since December, in her view, for upgraded homes. Maybe 5% on entry level homes. There are near nil people at home opens. And any buyer is 100k below seller expectations, even after dropping 10% from last years pricing.
And yes I’m selling, house sold 90days ago and waiting to settle in a few weeks. Just praying the buyer doesn’t realise they would be better off walking away and losing the 10% deposit!
It will take a while for the price falls to hit the quarterly statistics. Especially as falls are not in entry level homes yet. But the price adjustment on the ground are already larger than Core Logic suggests…
Interesting, melbourne still very strong (or at least the side of melbourne I’m in)
Prices barely moved 10k down, in some cases I saw the ads adjusting prices by increasing the lower end of the qoute price
Let me know when Sandy Hampton Black rock and Beaumaris crash – that’s when it’s a proper drop
Will do so, I have a couple of jobs that side of the town will keep an eye on the number of open for inspection
It’s staring in the leafy suburbs, but the numbers won’t show it for another quarter.
There are still plenty of people that did very well during the great asset inflation.
‘Straya!
Colleague at auction today
3 acres very nice 👌
Pre auction unconditional offer circa 1.3
Dropped out at that level at auction, only conditional offers bidding . Passed in 1.6
Texted the agent who sold our place start 2020 (10 acres).
“Vendors have not come to grips with market conditions yet”
‘sake!
Chile needs gas due to lack of US gas, no problem as Shell can ship 3 boat loads despite Aussies regulator having to step in.
“Analysis: Up-ended global LNG markets deepen Australia’s power woes”
https://au.investing.com/news/commodities-news/analysis-upended-global-lng-markets-deepen-australias-power-woes-2593957
“ Those businesses going bust in Australia and customers who can’t pay their bills can think of the wonderful copper mines they are keeping running in Chile and the fact Shell are making a wonderful profit on this trade” Resources Minster Madeline King
Sounds like a good argument for seizure and Nationalisation.
No compensation to shareholders
‘Is this the actual bottom?’ No
While I could suggest many reasons why. The best I have is that it will be near the bottom when the bear market has a Main Street recognised label. (Like with the oil crisis, dot com, GFC etc). Until this event is labelled, it’s not even close to done.
WW3? Might be a little early to call it.
The VlàdIloststock Energy Crash. The VEC.
The CrimEA Emergency. The CEAE.
The Ukranian Manoeuvre Exercises in the Dark. The UMED.
The great Chinese Realestate Asset Punishment (the great CRAP)
The Unusually Large Energy Hump. The ULEH.
The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order
Cambridge University’s professor of American History Gary Gerstle discusses his most recent book, about how the neoliberal order came about, why it is faltering, and the indeterminacy of what comes next.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vW2Tz4Lg_nc
good listen, I will buy his book!
Having been born in the early 60s in the U.S. and fleshed out with the scope of my family, broad experiences of living in different locations within different perspectives about socioeconomic/class related realities, associated with them, up too and post neoliberalism becoming dominate and post, I find the unfiltered history of the topic to be a better foundation for understanding it all than the dogmatic econometrics presented as – LAW – by orthodox economics during this period.
Jebusonastick how the mind melts when someone like Samuelson is informed that one of his core axioms is not only wrong, but a complete fabrication, out of whole cloth, yet with all the evidence contrary to it he says … yeah naw … *** I prefer *** this ideological perspective ….
All the polemic politics is just a side show to keep the unwashed weak and ignorant whilst more and more power is directed to the top income percentiles and you can kiss any notion of broad democracy or share of productivity good bye …
This place has much to answer for.
Having “Well, I suppose Emmanuel wasn’t bad.” stuck in your head for 35-years doesn’t help much either.
Why shipping container homes are a bad idea.
https://youtu.be/Ef7hQ35bfIU
Because the previous tenants always leave a mess on the docks?
United States …
A ‘Great Purge’ is pushing small truckers out of business at an unprecedented rate … FreightWaves
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/a-great-purge-is-pushing-small-truckers-out-of-business-at-an-unprecedented-rate?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FW_Daily_6_24_22&utm_term=A+%e2%80%98Great+Purge%e2%80%99+is+pushing+small+truckers+out+of+business+at+an+unprecedented+rate&utm_id=161196&sfmc_id=50657497
Episode 187 – The Boy Who Cried Wolff (w/ Prof. Richard Wolff) (podcast) Bad Faith. “Marxist economist Richard Wolff returns to the podcast to answer all of your inflation questions.” Fun stuff; Wolff is a hoot.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bad-faith/id1531192509?i=1000567455043
PS American economy is in the worst shape ever …
PSS sound economic analysis vs cheap political point scoring …
Really lays into the whole MBA driven aspect of inflation contra the fable about money printing …. brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr thingy ………
hey cool. Wolff’s getting popular.
Reading Upton Sinclair got me interested in coops and Wolff’s work. I like his 30’s optimism for a new wave in America, it’s time.
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession … Mark Burton … Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-26/metal-prices-are-headed-for-the-worst-quarter-since-the-financial-crisis
Prices for copper, tin and other metals plummeted last week as recession fears grow.
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
It’s a dramatic reversal from the past two years, when metals surged on a wave of post-lockdown optimism, inflationary predictions and supply snarls. Now, inflation is here and supplies are still tight. But prices are plummeting as worries about a slowdown in industrial activity across major economies dovetail with slumping demand in China.
For a metal like copper, its uses in everything from heavy industrial machinery to advanced electronics mean the market is tightly linked to economic shifts, and the retreat marks a signal from commodity markets that efforts to get prices back under control are having some early successes. The mood in metals has soured even as Chinese Covid-19 lockdowns start to ease, and there are signs that traders there are betting copper prices will fall further. … read more via hyperlink above …
China …
With Jobs Scarce, China’s Graduates Dream Small … Sixth Tone
https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1010570/with-jobs-scarce%2C-chinas-graduates-dream-small?source=channel_home
… via …
Todays Breakfast Briefing
G7 and BRICS meet to plot next moves; China’s jobs market gets grim; US PMIs soften; US petrol prices top out; NZ dives in liveability survey; UST 10yr 3.14%; gold and oil lower; NZ$1 = 63.1 USc; TWI-5 = 71.1 … Interest Co NZ
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/116497/g7-and-brics-meet-plot-next-moves-chinas-jobs-market-gets-grim-us-pmis-soften-us
… extracts …
… In China, the sluggish economy is really putting the squeeze on job seekers. Their jobless rate for 16-24 year olds is now more than 18%, far above the high general jobless rate of almost 6%, which is also rising. (The equivalent NZ levels are 10.2% and 3.2%; for the US they are 10.4% and 3.6%.). …
… Container shipping rates fell -3% last week alone for trans-pacific cargoes out of China. This is their biggest fall since when they came off their peak in September last year. Interestingly, rates from the US back to China are actually rising, against the trend. American imports seem to be shifting away from China, to a variety of ASEAN countries, especially Vietnam, and US exports are picking up. …
.
.
THREE big LIES about CHINA that you have always been told – VisualPolitik EN … Youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pop2xWQWEiM