Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Share markets are once again bouncing back across Asia despite the overnight volatility on Wall Street as traders react to central bankers trying to backpedal, sidestep and generally stumble their way through this post COVID stagflation, of sorts. The USD remains strong against most of the undollars, with the Australian dollar once again pushed below the 69 cent level on “don’t be asking for more wage increases” Phil Lowe’s little chat today. Oil prices are drifting sideways, with Brent crude just above the $110USD per barrel level while gold is down a handful of dollars as it struggles at the $1834USD per ounce level:

Mainland Chinese share markets are accelerating higher going into the close with the Shanghai Composite up more than 1.2% to 3307 points while the Hang Seng Index has gained nearly 2%, currently at 21396 points. Japanese stock markets however are putting in scratch sessions with the Nikkei 225 index closing just 0.1% higher at 26246 points while the USDJPY pair has dropped below the 136 handle after failing to stabilise after its early week breakout:

Australian stocks were able to put in modest gains,  with the ASX200 finishing just 0.3% higher at 6528 points. The Australian dollar however has flopped again, now just below the 69 cent level against USD and on its way to the previous weekly low as the RBA loses control of the rudder (not having anyone in the crows nest and all the navigators down below playing poker) as four hourly momentum remains highly negative:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are slowly drifting sideways going into the European open, with the S&P500 four hourly futures chart showing price action still anchored here above the 3700 point level as the May lows (lower horizontal black line) turn into firm resistance:

The economic calendar is packed tonight with a slew of flash PMI readings for Germany, UK, Europe and the US, plus weekly initial jobless claims and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony continues.

Comments

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Lurking.
      20 plus years ago we had a client we called lurker A middle aged pensioner who would come around late at night especially Sundays for me to fix his only love in life, his BMW motorbike. Always hesitant to knock on our rented house in DY he could be found in the front yard darkened by the large mulberry, apologetic for the intrusion.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Sent a near new air speargun to Dominiic in Queensland free of charge so he could protect his family if things got too economically grim.
          Made a special spearhead without a flopper for it.

          • Absolute BeachMEMBER

            What’s the semi-accurate range of a spear gun like that? Never used gas.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Pita underwater,it’s just a piston inside a cylinder that can be pumped up to a pressure preferred. Once pumped it stays there and under water you load it by putting a tee handle on the spear tip and pulling the spear against the piston up the cylinder hoping not to bend the spear in the process.
            Basically a stupid invention

          • You can do better Boomen! I’d have expected no less than a rail speargun from you! Shooting depleted Uranium bolts at Mach 4.

            That should annihilate any attacker and 3 generations … in his past!

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Mathius is a clone of Migtronix. Both highly intelligent. Both hate boomers. Both want to be independent of society. Both awaiting the crash. Both well schooled. Both unmarried. Both profess to be happy in their own world. Similar age. One slight difference being Miig’s propensity to fry his brain by unnatural means.

        • And Mig would make personal attacks. Mathias is more a broad reaching derision of other generations etc..or power structures and women. So don’t think same person.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Not the same Mig Victoria, Mathius Queensland.
            Mathius has been known to wish ill of persons.

          • MathiasMEMBER

            Do I sound Spanish to you? ( Mig was spanish if I recall ).
            Mate, Im frickin’ Australian.

            Me and Mig have about as much in common as Zorro does with the Bush Tucker Man.

            I spoke to him only once, a very long time ago. He seemed alright in a kind of ” Im a bitter migrant so why wont Australia accept me ” sorta way. The guy was Pro-Migrant, Pro-Colonisation of Australia and ” We should just flood this country with Spanish people coz that would be really cool for me “. I mean, he had his opinions, I just didnt agree.

            I believe the guy was from Melbourne. You tend to get a lot of those grumpy immigrants from down south. Im pretty polite when it comes to foreign things like that. I mean, you expect that sort of thing from Melbourne. Grumpy Immigrants from down south dont tend to like us Queenslanders because Queenslanders arent a huge fan of other cultures trying to colonise us. Apparently we tend to be Racist, Sexist, Mysogynist and we smell funny ( thats on a good day ). Personally, I think thats all part of our charm.

            Mig and me arent the same person. Im a Native Born Australian. He’s not. He doesnt like me and Im pretty sure you can work out why.

          • I don’t want to risk triggering a meltdown in someone so psychologically unstable.

          • Goodness [email protected], if you can’t discern something amiss in Mathias from his comments and if you cannot read between the lines in my comment then surely you can have the grace to accept that I have good reasons for not elaborating. Please. If not, go and read his comments again and you may even see my replies urging counselling, for reasons that should be obvious.
            I’m serious, I’ll leave him alone even if his anti boomer and whatever rhetoric is just wrong, some of the other stuff is objectionable and needs to be called out.

          • It’s the internet Ginger, speak plainly, people aren’t mind readers and don’t automatically know what you’re saying. All I could glean from your comments in this thread is you didn’t agree with Booms take but didn’t provide your.own when prompted.

            Why do you assume Mathias is real and not the creation of one the many MB Trolls?

          • MathiasMEMBER

            I love you guys too ;p This is Australia and to be fair, I’d be insulted if you guys saw life any other way.

            > and you may even see my replies urging counselling

            Bahahahahahaha… no thanks love. Queensland has counsellors. It all began with grumpy house wifes sitting at home having nothing to do while there husbands went out and had jobs. For a few years, those woman would go to ‘womans groups’ where for the most part they’d just b-tch about there husbands relentlessly ( ” Can you believe he leaves the toilet seat up? OMG ” … ” Yeah, mine wont even do as his told ” ). Suddenly, some bright spark had the idea that we could employ all this bored house wifes into career roles and turn them all into social workers. Regional areas discovered this wonderful thing called ‘ Counselling Diplomas ‘. You could go from being a bored house wife one minute, to an expert Counsellor with a Diploma the next. They where handing these things out like toilet paper. The feminist brigade discovered that not only was it a great pay cheque for woman but the woman loved the idea that they could control there men. I mean, hell, even Julia Gillard got behind this idea. The next thing you had a bunch of house wifes with counselling diplomas, jabbering away about ‘ Pavlovs dog, Eniagrams, Freudian Psycho-Analysis and how terrible men where that they kept leaving the toilet seat up ‘ , all because they couldnt emotionally control there men and most woman are nuts anyway. It made for intelligent Bingo, I’ll give it that… but men dont like to be controlled and that really is the story of Australia ;p

            I have come to the conclusion that most woman I know are natural born control freaks. Most woman spend there days with lipstick, watching dating shows and becoming obsessed with all the hundreds of different ways to emotionally manipulate men. Far be it that I would shun the great Sigmond Freud but Counselling Diplomas are an exceptional way for insecure woman to become learned in the arts of emotional manipulation, divorce there husbands just so they get access to there cash ( and have them leave the toilet seat up )

            Your average man is a fathers son, in a crazy messed up world, where everyones an expert and everyones a control freak. Australia has lots of problems and what I’ve learnt to discover, is those are your problems and not mine. In 99% of cases when idiots talk about you or try to pull you back into the status quo, what they really mean to say is, ” My life is miserable. I want you to be like me. I want you to solve my problems. “. I’ve watched grown men live insecure there entire lives. They worship the god of houses, the god of woman and the god of money. Im fully aware of whats coming up for the next 20 years of Australian Society, how horrible its going to be and how needy everyones going to be. Your more then welcome to invest in what you think is important in the coming future and I’ll be investing in what I think is important in the coming future.

            Lets be honest, your just upset that you cant control me… and you dont ;p and you never will.

            But I’d be insulted if you didnt try.

        • Mig is funnier

          Edit: Mig is also a real person. Who knows which of the many regular trolls of MB is the character Mathias. All those creatures over at the economic zone freely admit to creating characters to troll MB with for years, I’m sure they’ll say I’m the sad one but I can’t imagine being such a sad sack you’d spend time creating multiple false online identities independent and distinct from each other just to troll an economics blog. Yes stewie, I’m talking about you.

        • I reckon you’ve got a point. They are far from the same person, but the similarities you noted are real. I’m not bothered by either of them.
          ps @Mathias he’s a Portugeezer.
          pps @Ginge you reckon Mig doesn’t need therapy? Classic self-medication, don’t @ me Harry.

          • I made no comment about Mig, only the misread of Mathias and obviously I think there are profound differences.

    • “Mobile speed cameras are operated by private contractor Serco on behalf of the Department of Justice and Community Safety.”
      Hopefully they’re set for that crucial 1 km/h over the speed limit that makes all the difference to road safety.

    • The French have a good history on sorting speed cameras out, by means of burning tires around them, drilling and filling them with polyurethane foam, or a canister of LPG to blow them up.

      Looks like your amateurs have a little while to go.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      To be fair, there’s probably nowhere else in the world that polices speed as strictly and pedantically as Victoria.

      That being said, if you were going to try and take out a speed camera, a can of paint would probably be just as effective with much less risk.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Lol
        I used to be all for reconciliation with Indigenous Australians but Thorpe’s saying her entry into parliament would see every person in the country understand ‘whose land they were on’ has me thinking Nope.
        They’ll never accept my people, my kids, being here and calling Australia home so fk em let’s get this civil war started and get it properly sorted out.
        Im ready to fight for My country against every single one of these racist cnts who talk about “White people” like 1930s Germans spoke about Jews.

  1. Bonds continuing their run up tonight by the look of things……….US has to get business investment back and stop subsidising consumption…….Central banks might need to get back in the credit allocation business……..this purple line of comparison between all loans and business loans has to go positive and stay there or they are on a hiding to nothing. Looks like business investment doesn’t like low interest rates and picks up whenever rates rise.

    https://twitter.com/deerpointmacro/status/1539765485453164545

    We are no better…..business investment here back to 1991 levels and we all know what happened then

    https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/business-sector.html

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      What happened then?
      Also seems the intrest rates going up won’t be for long, deflation in every thing started to appear and the mega recession is starting
      Buy house if you need one, I give it another 2 months before they start cutting rates again

      • See below

        Cutting rates from Oct around will be because we are in the biggest financial crisis in history

        The banks are going under I’d say first half of next year

        No change to anything I’ve said, they were just able to extend it

        Heading into a depression next year then hyperinflation a few years out

      • You’ll be happy Reusa
        Interest rates are about to come down really fast.
        It’s going to start with the 4 & 5 year fixed rates are now mid 5s they’ll start falling into 4s & 3%
        The RBA will be tightening, bill says 50 in July but think 75 & probably 50 Aug
        Think that’ll be it, RBA will be cutting down to 0% over Xmas probably deep negative
        My guess you’ll see our 10 year bond yields negative next year
        Anyway the rate rises are nearly over in 6 weeks time it’s the end before another easing cycle
        If you are in a fixed rate that expires end of 23 early 2024 I think you’ll roll back into another fixed rate around 2% don’t stress
        Don’t listen to main stream & on this site they don’t know what they are talking about
        They all missed the rate rise from last year
        We are headed into the biggest financial crisis in history with magnitude 50 plus times the GFC
        Many huge bankruptcies & the big 4 banks won’t see out 2023
        It’s going to get really ugly but not yet
        FED is close to pivot & there might be one more party time
        Think, my gut feeling is we are going to see all time highs in BTC 100,000 over the next 12 months
        As I said to try & fix this mess they’ll just do QQQQEEEEE Brrrrrrrrrr
        Hyper inflation ahead this decade & 20 plus % interest rates

        Houses prices will fall a min of 30 to 50% next year & bounce as they print maybe 20% up from 50% down but over thus decade as interest rates climb well above 10% they’ll be min 60 to 80% lower than the peak 6 months ago

        You’ll never see house prices at 2021 levels again in your lifetime

        It’s all over

      • I quite like the fact he’s spent $30k just to get a few IP addresses and most of those are VPN ones anyway. So now he’s got a few he’s going to try and use to unmask a user. I’m hoping it’s not a Dan Andrews staffer. Just so he wastes more money on this process.

  2. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Today marks the 120th day of the Ukraine-Russia war. Ukraine will be granted EU membership, allowing their government to borrow an unlimited amount of funds to pay for weapons from Europe, Britain and the USA. When the war is finished, the Ukraine will become another failed state like Haiti. The West will squeeze every cent out of Ukraine’s rich, black soil.

    Donald Trump is going to announce his candidacy before the Jan 6th commission make its founding. The whole purpose of the exercise is to stop Trump from running again, but the Supreme Court will side with Trump. Biden is taking another trip to Europe to hold the coalition against Russia together, and to ‘double down’ to include China as well. If they cut off China, inflation will go into triple digits, and It’s not going to do anything for his popularity. If Trump run, winning is almost a certainty. In a few days, Roe vs Wade will be overturned, and that means same sex marriage as well. The US Supreme Court already ruled it’s now ok for the government to fund religious schools. The entire legal and moral landscape of the US is being changed, and even Miranda Right, which everyone who watched US police drama will know, is not safe. The ‘Conservative’ is making a big comeback.

  3. US current accounts
    https://gyazo.com/2b0c01aee4b49a57810951feb5661902

    US saying pension payments stop in 2034. In 12 years, US can no longer afford to pay its pensions. This stuff changes on a daily basis but yeah.

    Then you’ve got a$$holes like me who spend there days growing there own food, not paying rent and not paying a single cent into the system because ” I want to see it die “. Australians whining about entitlements, holding onto the past while I laugh at them and say, ” aha… good luck with all of that “. World War 3? National Service? Gotta catch me first. I’d rather spend those days in prison.

    Millenials Moving Bush because they’ve had enough
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-23/millennials-drive-regional-growth-in-australia/101175978

    Sally McManus says ‘Boomers’ -I giggle like a school girl-
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-23/actu-sally-mcmanus-reserve-bank-wages-inflation/101176680

    This bloody Australia… Its so full of liars. Liar Liar Pants on Fire.

    Chinas just an external excuse to deflect our minds off the real domestic threats facing Australia ( That would be the coming retirement crisis and the fact Australia will soon run out of money to fund the Baby Boomers ). If this country wants to start WW3 then it better start paying people because there isnt a lot of incentive to get out of bed for this government as it is.

    After all this bullsh-t, Australias Young are going to be worth there weight in Gold. Australias Labor Force is going to be so destroyed that this Government will be throwing houses and almost anything it has just to keep them, to pay down all of these debts… assuming the young actually want to stay in Australia and arent thinking of moving offshore for better pastures ;p The Boomers can sit and whine all day about the ‘We built this country… bloody young people so ungrateful’ and the Feminists can whine about men not leaving the toilet seat up.

    Nobodys going to care ;p Words will just fall on deaf ears.

    Australias really going to regret treating its young like crap.

    • Is that you Larry Summers … Welcome to MB … gotta question for a flexian riding on relatives coat tails … endless stream of money for MIC/HIC and friends [insider trading et al] tells another story … be honest some just like stepping on the unwashed ants … gleeeeeeeeee

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