Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Share markets are unsteady here in Asia as we start a new trading week, and head into the end of the financial year. All eyes are on the crypto crash over the weekend, with Bitcoin bouncing back – if you could call it that – to the $20K level, while the USD is giving up some minor gains against most of the undollars, with the bounce in the Australian dollar again still unable to translate into anything above the 70 cent level. Oil prices are drifting sideways, with Brent crude just above the $113USD per barrel level after losing 4% on Friday while gold is up a handful of dollars as it struggles to get off the ropes here at the $1842USD per ounce level:

Mainland Chinese share markets are steady with the Shanghai Composite basically unchanged at 3328 points while the Hang Seng Index has slipped a handful of points to be at 21068 points going into close. Japanese stock markets are still in correction mode with the Nikkei 225 index closing 0.7% lower at 25771 points while the USDJPY pair has stabilised from its Friday night bounce back to be just under the 135 handle:

Australian stocks are also not doing well in their first session of the week with the ASX200 finishing some 0.7% lower at 6433 points. The Australian dollar has taken back about half of its Friday night losses but is still stuck here under the 70 cent level as four hourly momentum remains neutral:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are slowly drifting sideways going into the European open, with the S&P500 four hourly futures chart showing  price action still crushed at the 3700 point level as the May lows (lower horizontal black line) turn into resistance here:

The economic calendar is very quiet tonight with a few BOE speeches, and Wall Street will be closed for a public holiday.

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  1. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Went to the factory this morn loaded up with a hydraulic bender. Had a very slow leak rear so pumped them all to 60psi except the leaker that one about 45psi. No problems but went to go home and it morphed into a fast leak. On the way home had to kangaroo hop the servos and came prepared with the hand pump which got multiple uses. A horrible experience when on the freeway ph stops which are not away from the traffic.

  2. Good stuff if someone is new to the game. Their take on CLO vs. CDO’s in the upcoming economic endgame (it is a finite planet, everyone) is breath-taking in a certain light.

    (CLO vs CDO is private vs corporate debt harbingering the future crash as corporate chickens coming to roost after the failure of ‘refinancing’ consumer debt ((yes, I ran out of punctuation to denote affectations for consumer, meaning mortgage holders)) as the future of corporate effects on banking assets.

          • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

            ^^ I’m afraid it only got sent to you , they don’t have my address

          • The actions taken to force Japan into a military conflict TTP, but in the more modern sense you seem to be talking about, I would note what Plaza was about and did …

          • The inflation being discussed was the result of Germany having its productive assets taken away an left it with no source of income/trade. Nothing to do with money crankery wing nut gold bug stuff gav aka immutable tokens of labour in perpetuity. No currency in history has achieved this condition. Yet I would think after this bit of crypto implosion on so many levels you would have learned something, understand your sort has no problems when the inflation in a increase in price to your account.

            QTM was refuted back in Friedman’s/Thatchers day so I don’t know what your banging on about except clinging to some corporatist ideology cut out of whole cloth. BTW Hudson has been letting it rip lately, recommend you take a peek, oh and the ling to Orkonomics too.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            What’s the difference Skippy?
            If you lose a fraction of your assets / national income that implies a big drop in income driven money demand.
            If the CB doesn’t reduce money supply accordingly and then keeps printing to meet inflationary expectations it is driven by loose monetary policy.

          • Sweeper the shadow/financial sector makes a joke of playing with IR, BSD are not exposed and it will always be suffered by the unwashed and anther round of consolidation.

            I contrast I would point out the Ukraine was becoming another Harvard/Chicago Boy privatization play ground just before Russia took matters in its own hands.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            I still don’t see what the difference is.
            If China took WA the Aussie dollar tanked and the RBA left the same qty of Base money in circulation and then printed more to accommodate inflationary expectations would you say the inflation wasn’t caused by monetary policy?

          • Ugh Sweeper with the blind economist shtick … were talking about today and – its – dynamic which is the culmination of a lot of things built up during the globalization period and now cascading in real time.

          • I only know of one modern case of currency inflation in the sense your talking about and that was Brazil back in the day and was complicated, Germany and Zimbabwe were trade shocks, one imposed by others and one self imposed for political reasons.

            The case for the Atlantic nations has more to do with baked in logistical dramas associated with efficiencies[tm], Brexit[duh], pandemic – labour sick/long covid early retirement/job change et al, new trade flows resulting from sanctions and multi-polar world realignment.

            Then we can go back to the GFC and that 34Tish that could not even get a whiff of inflation. Groan even Greenspan of all people was correct in informing Rand Paul in Congress that the deal was about “creating” assets in the future and not about money supply e.g. Rands gold bug concerns about strong dollar policy.

  3. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    Iron ore price, One year ago: $214, Now: $125
    And the futures indicating another 10% decrease in price , not seeing it hitting $300 as bcnich predicted soon

    • I’m seeing lots of 90s Japanese classics eg: GTRs being discounted now. Didn’t happen last 2 years. Just saw 3 discounted today by amounts from $5-$10k. Actual selling prices probably lower again.

      Definitely seeing the impact of interest rate rises.

        • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

          They had the chance to do it in 2019, but Scomo came and wrecked the whole country
          Pressured the RBA to drop intrest rates within weeks of his election, then he injected so much cash in the economy and put it on an inflation mine and rest is history

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