See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
Asian share markets are quite mixed following continued selloffs from overnight markets as Chinese bourses ignore the downside while Australian stocks lead the way down through bear market territory. The USD remains strong against all the undollars, with the Australian dollar still at or slightly below the 69 cent level as we head into tonight’s crucial FOMC meeting. Oil prices are drifting sideways, with Brent crude above the $120USD per barrel level while gold is trying hard to fightback after another big move lower overnight, currently just below the $1820USD per ounce level:

Mainland Chinese share markets are ignoring all the downside volatility with the Shanghai Composite up more than 1.5% to 3344 points while the Hang Seng Index has equaled that performance, up 1.6% going into close to be at 21404 points. Japanese stock markets however continued their pullback, with the Nikkei 225 index losing 0.9% to 26388 points while the USDJPY pair has pulled back from its gains above the 135 level but remains on trend:

Australian stocks are still selling off, with another 1.5% lost in today’s session, pushing losses to over 10% in the last 12 months for the ASX200 as it closes just above the 6600 point level. The Australian dollar has tried to bounce back up to the 69 cent level this afternoon, but the Pacific Peso is still looking very weak here as weekly support has evaporated:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are slowly moving sideways with the latter showing nascent signs of bottoming as selling exhaustion kicks in. The S&P500 four hourly futures chart shows price action still crushed well below the 3800 point level and the May lows (lower horizontal black line) as a swing play on reverting momentum may give some hope here:

The economic calendar has US retail sales and some other releases to deal with, but everything will hinge on tonight’s FOMC meeting, where the Fed is likely to raise rates by at least 50-75bps.
- Macro Afternoon - June 28, 2022
- Macro Morning - June 28, 2022
- Macro Afternoon - June 27, 2022
No matter how much they try and gentrify West End in Brisbane they fail lol
Good.
The old West End was grungy and dangerous and awesome!
Yeah, well, you always were a West End Boy.
Has MB changed sides (not that there’s anything wrong with that)?
east end boys & west end girls!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3j2NYZ8FKs
It was a different time.
Google maps wasn’t an app available on his phone yet. And he’s a man, so he doesn’t ask for directions (and can’t read a map book). So he only ever went there…
Accidentally.
Agreed. It was my favourite place to hang out if stuck in Brissy on business. A long time ago…
West End was hardly dangerous. Aside the poor bastard who was lured to his death by the rowing sheds…
The usual suspects are desperate to get into the catchment for State High
And how they all had a whinge for the ages when they built a new SHS that divided the catchment!
The bot got angry at my first post lol
Moderators are afraid of being moderated by getting sacked. So they censor way above the censorship requirements
Fed’s decision tomorrow… some say big 1% coming
No wonder there was no bids on MBS
1%!
Its going up every day!
Exactly
Majority are bullish at the top & bearish at the bottom
The time to have been calling interest rates higher was last June not now.
The whisper is, investment bankers started the 1% noise knowing it will be 0.75% so they can front run it……investment bankers wouldn’t be unethical, would they😉
Only Reusa beats them in ethnicallity!!
Hoody it’s not that
The majority always play the hype game
This is why majority sell at the bottom & buy at the top
Macrobusiness does it
The AUD starts at 76 & heads to 68 & they get more bearish the closer we get to the low
76 was the time to be bearish & 68 get bullish if market sentiment builds more & more bearish
Start preparing to turn ahead of everyone
Don’t listen to the dribble, try to block out everyone’s emotion & be one step ahead
TP
BCN
Be careful getting caught up in the hype
You need to be able to pick turning points
Will they do more than 50…..maybe but JP may even do 50 & hint on the dovish side
US economy is going off a cliff leading indicators are showing US is heading into deep recession
They aren’t far away from pause & pivot
Bond yields & gasoline has done the demand destruction
We aren’t far away from easing again.
Look at 2 year US bond yield it’s already done the damage
There won’t be several more hikes maybe this on & next & it’ll be interest rate cuts
Everyone missed the rise in interest rates start last year when US 10 year was 1.13%
US 30 year mortgage was 2.5% a year ago now 6.25%
The rate hike cycle is nearly over, interest rate cuts starting around September maybe Aug
Always insightful 👌 and precise
Keep those comments coming
While in Europe
“European markets rallied on Wednesday as the European Central Bank held an emergency meeting on the recent bond market sell-off,”
Bond yields across the world have no peaked & heading back down
It’s not even close to being over.
What a mess in the Libral party
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/we-have-photographs-shock-claims-over-nsw-treasurer-matt-keans-leaked-texts/news-story/62cbcdab9029878e617d0ad34e0c0b1c
World’s Central Banks Got It Wrong, and Economies Pay the Price … Enda Curran … Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/world-s-central-banks-got-it-wrong-and-economies-pay-the-price?srnd=premium-asia
Even after central banks recognized they got their inflation calls wrong last year, they’ve continued to flub their policy guidance, threatening greater damage to their credibility, roiling markets and undermining the pandemic recovery.
The Federal Reserve is now expected to hike interest rates by 75 basis points Wednesday, just weeks after Chair Jerome Powell and his team repeatedly advertised a half percentage point move. It’s the latest in a series of misfires, from deeming high inflation “transitory” last year to speeding up the end of its bond-purchase program to accelerating the runoff of its bond portfolio.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has lately also turned more hawkish than she previously indicated, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is among those raising rates faster than policy makers had signaled. … behind paywall … read more via hyperlink above …
Its OK, they’ve got it all under control….
Just like houses, just like banks, and just like fuel and food
Australian Energy Market Operator suspends spot market for wholesale electricity to ensure reliability and avoid blackouts
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-15/aemo-suspends-energy-spot-market-amid-power-crisis/101154054
What dose suspending the market mean? I read couple of articles but non explain what that means
I think it is a anticipated supply mechanism – AEMO says for blocks of time (5mins?) what the demand is likely to be. and generators then can choose to all bid in supply at a price they choose. The marginal / highest needed price is then given to all required bidders.
I suspect this spot approach has been deemed to be too risky either due to bidding games or not being able to trust that an additional bidder will appear if a near-term shortfall is about to occur.
Goodness gracious!! bidding and auctions are so integrated in the mindset!
Yep, that’s how the market “works” – 15 minute blocks back when I had generators as customers – it may have changed in the last 15 years.
If everything is predictable and no-one is playing cartel games it works well. When things move out of the design range, well…
It means the purpose of the market wasn’t to provide reliable electricity.
On the boomers wireless radio station they were blaming renewable energy for the high electricity prices 🤦🤷 and the lack of more coal generated electricity 😳
Well it’s true
Lol, all this is telling me is to install a battery now that I have a solar array. Wishing I installed more panels now.
WOW!
Maybe the power companies can sue the gas cartel for cartel behavior or similar, to get their money. 😉
That would actually be a good move.
I’d love to see the vertically integrated generators sue themselves 😉
Pointless exercise in throwing darts at where interest rates may be next week or next year, or the latest quantifying headline house price falls, but if I was placing a wager,whether Australia will collect silver, and looking at the March quarter lending stats for New Zealand , of the 45256 new mortgage originations, 16.8 percent by number were at DTI above 6. And, when compared to Australia interest only lending, including revolving credit, has fallen in New Zealand and is back to levels last seen in the December 2015 quarter by amount, but substantially lower at 18.5 percent of outstanding stock.
The energy company CEOs & Boards need to be reminded that they only get to have a lucrative gas export market if they keep the lights on at reasonable prices at home. Otherwise we have every right to turn off the taps at Gladstone and otherwise intervene until they are back on…
I think we’ve seen during the pandemic the emergency powers that the PM and Premiers have to just seize and shut things – let’s do it!
Imagine how much better a bargaining position Albo would have if he dropped some Federales in and forcibly shut Gladstone and was like “Do I have your attention now? See how seriously I am taking this? You don’t get to reopen it until the East Coast gas and electricity market isn’t gouging and blacking out Australians”…
Huh? Careful, or you may be sent back to the reeducation camp.
Keep repeating “Market is always right”.
Until it demands an intrest rate hike!!
AEMO just turned the market off so it doesnt matter what the market is.
Asolutely what Albo should do. (and make them pay back taxes too)
Yep +1.
Chinese authorities managed to stop a march by turning the vaccine passport app in the people’s phones from green to red…I assume that means it can happen anywhere????????
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-bank-protest-stopped-by-health-codes-turning-red-depositors-say-2022-06-14/
“New Hong Kong textbooks will teach students that the city was never a British colony, after an overhaul of a school subject that authorities have blamed for driving the pro-democracy protests.”
Alt reality!
Now we get to thank the nutbags who opposed the covid app (me).
Thank you.
thank me too…
I also opposed it, despite being pro Vaccine and (lockdown in the beginning). I thought the app was a massive overreach.
Uh, because a communist country did this means we would have? Talk about a long stretch.
And no thanks from me!
They are perfecting Authoritarianism as a Service. Apps, services and AI automation.
A SAAS ecosystem for repressive governance.
Wait til you have to download the bunnings app….
30-year mortgage rate surges to 6.28%, up from 5.5% just a week ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/30-year-mortgage-rate-surges-to-6point28percent-up-from-5point5percent-just-a-week-ago.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
This is pretty much prior GFC highs.
Mega6.28
That’s a full circle … in radians.
I wonder what GS and Blackstone are borrowing at to buy their portfolios?
This might interest some of you (links to 3 YouTube vids)
that they (central banks) are tying to fight supply side inflation with rates, it don’t even work when Volcker used it in the 70s!
“For anyone who missed Part 1 of our @EmilKalinowski Volcker Myth trilogy, here it is.
Monetary experts taking control and slaying the inflation dragon? Not remotely.”
https://t.co/TzsYImOwpD
Yep, very important to understand. The only way to stop this inflation is to open the supply taps and make up with Russia. Core inflation is currently slowing down, only energy and food is on the increase still.
The Fed and the gov seems insistant on killing off the poor and destablising the world instead of doing the above.
Saudis can also increase the supply to the oil market. Although I don’t think they will given they want Trump and Kushner running the show and don’t want to let up prior to the mid terms.
how sure are we that they can ? The host of Macrovoices, who is himself primarily an oil trader, has said on mutiple weekly macrovoices podcasts recently that he thinks that the saudis are pretty much operating at maximum output already.
i haven’t listened to the last 2 weeks worth and he may have changed his opinion but that was his view for the last couple of months
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/politics-economics/could-us-president-joe-bidens-visit-to-saudi-arabia-have-a-positive-impact-on-the-oil-price-crisis
Saudi and UAE have capacity to increase but they say they want to keep a buffer. Refinery capacity is also an issue though.
The problem is, central banks are only given one lever. They aren’t given the ability to solve supply chain problems.
Transitory took too long and russia kicked that can. Inflation is a ta on the poor. So What do you do?
What are the chances that central banks’ interest rate fiddling can control resource depletion?
Buckley’s I reckon.
Yep, years until LNG supply in the West can increase……EU is in for a world of hurt.
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1534491173393424385
A world of hurt indeed, ECB is having emergency meeting to prob up Italy
Problem is our reliance on fossil fuels and sh1t run countries for those resources. If we can decouple and transition to more renewables or even Nuclear (in the mix), the Environment will be better for it, but also our future won’t depend on foreign nations.
Yes I know it doesn’t happen overnight, but it should have been happening 20 years ago.
Where does crypto figure in your care for the environment?
It’s gonna pay for the nuclear power plant, and use its power at the same time! It’s gonna be Awesome! 😉
If we use renewables to produce energy why will crypto energy usage matter at that point? Have you considered the energy usage of the global banking system? How does that compare? What about all the war that is financed thanks in part to fiat currency and it’s ability to be printed on and on. Refer to Nixon removing the gold standard etc..
It was just to crush labour in the Raygun way by gutting bargaining power and then some are confused how wages and productivity diverged mid 70s. Even when they could have done society better by taxing non socially productive $$$$$, but naw dog taxes are theft of – the mans[tm] – dollar and best of all higher IR helps Banks make free money for themselves. Hence why they are always so fast in passing rate cuts down in the past ….
When did strayan military officers start saluting politicians?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-15/penny-wong-to-visit-new-zealand-and-solomon-islands/101154380
isn’t that a NZ military officer ? given that the headline is that she is visiting NZ and Solomons…
Think the shoulder flash says straya ……..and if NZ ….would still question .
……..but then the military is getting a tad woke so may now be the thing
That’s an easy one to answer. This is direct from the US, along with a whole lot of other stuff like; I’m blessed, I wanted to serve my country (never heard this until the 90s), flying the flag at press conferences etc. All these things make me want to reach for the gun I don’t own nor believe in owning, but on some occasions I wish I did and I had!
There’s an easy way to tell – just look and see if they’re wearing any pups on their shoulders.
ps://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/australian-semiconductor-maker-announces-key-commercialisation-milestone-with-export-of-laser-diode-prototypes
What’s the bet we force them offshore or just kill them off.
Tim Buckley, Director of Climate Energy Finance Studies, clearly reads MB. He used similar / same language (“war profiteering”) as MB to describe the treasonous parasitic gas corporations, while roasting them on ABC “PM” radio program this evening.
He’s in cahoots with 🏘 and 🕳 ?
Did he call to keep interest rates low too 🤔?
He did the same thing a couple of weeks ago
“There’s plenty of gas, we don’t need new fields
We keep exporting it all
We’re paying the net back price
Look at wa
They’re a cartel
They pay no tax
War time super profits tax needed
Interesting aspect in the US of A housing market, no one wants to sell as they have bought with mortgage rate of about 2% so why to replace it with 6%??
A lot more of the continental US is habitable (and desirable) to live in. Unlike Australia
Help!!!
Someone please explain what rubbish this is: https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/aemo-calls-for-more-supply-to-avoid-blackouts-20220615-p5atrt
Says there that there isa price cap and somehow aemo has taken over the generators??? How can they do that for assets they do not own (or do they and the energy companies only lease and run them)?
And then,down the bottom it says that they canapply for compensation for direct and opportunity that will be passed on to consumer anyway. So how does this actually mean price capping work?
I suspect any techie being quoted in that article would be seriously p1ssed at how badly the journo mangled what they said.
It’s in the federal legislation that was set up with the national energy market, for use in dire times! If they refuse they face massive fines; it’s critical infrastructure.
Good on them doing what bcnich always wanted to do
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/good-news/trolley-photo-exposes-australias-unseen-cost-of-living-crisis/news-story/7a4e1cc0b2aee8d307ff00f7d88906c1
Been reading up on the NSW proposal to replace the stamp duty with a land tax. While I support removing stamp duty, what replaces it is worse. The proposal is to levy $400 + 0.4% of unimproved land value on PPOR, and $1500 + 1.1% for investors. There is no land tax threshold.
For owner occupier, borrowing the money to pay stamp duty will result in a much better outcome. For a 1.2 million dollar home, stamp duty is 51k. Suppose the land cost 800K, then the total tax payable for the first year will be 3.6k. However, since land tax goes up with land value, a 10% increase in land value per year will see it increase to 5.5k in 5 years, and $8600 in 10 years time. Any owner with a choice will be better off borrowing the money to pay the stamp duty.
Due to the fixed charge, it is a regressive tax regime : the more your land cost, the less you pay as a percentage. Currently the land tax is at 1.6% for investors over 880k, so for the big land-bankers will pay less in land tax. Furthermore, NSW passed a 50% land tax rebate for ‘build to rent’ (only accessible for big players), so they’ll only be paying 0.55% in land tax. The tax creates a skewed market where some investors are taxed less due to political connections.. At the low end of the market: land tax alone will take up 3 months of rent in a year!! @[email protected] (Dubbo, land price @400k, rent at $400 a week). Investment properties in regional areas will all become holiday homes that is only lent out for AirBnB for tax purposes, because the yield simply doesn’t work.
The commercial land tax at 2.3% is also ridiculously high. The tenant pays the tax, not the landlord.
Land tax shouldn’t be regressive (get rid of the fixed charge), should be less for commercial properties, introduce a threshold for owner occupiers, and should be a lower rate for area outside capital cities. If that is the proposal, the cure will be worse than the disease.
Yep, I’ll never move if they grandfather us in if we paid stamp duty. I paid about $56k on my home in 2020. Wasn’t happy about it, but would rather live here the rest of my days than move to an annual rate of tax like that.
Got a link to the proposal?
Here is the official website.
https://www.nsw.gov.au/initiative/property-tax-reform
For owner occupiers of a median priced house in Sydney (or Melbourne), the current stamp duty will be paid as tax over ~9 years. And additional to stamp duty every year after.
What a fk’n scam.
If revenue is an issue, raising the GST instead? An immigration “infrastructure surcharge”? Or maybe, just maybe, a “resources rent tax”?
Perrottet knows stamp duty is going to fall significantly
….( the Chinese might not be buying dog boxes too much in the future )
…so let’s go and put a forever tax on peoples homes
…imagine how much will be available to bail out builders and developers
This country is fcuked…….,
So there it is….. the more re-infections you get as Covid variants progress and boosters you take the worse your immunity profile against future variants is……the definition of antigenic sin…..the virus is positioning us where it wants us.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1841
Discussion
https://twitter.com/RajeevJayadevan/status/1536898131509489664
“…..the virus is positioning us where it wants us.”
Your talents are wasted shilling for the sniffles. You should be writing for Hollywood. That penchant for Xtreme hyperbole is astounding. The anthropomorphism was a nice touch.
Boosters are no good?? Try to tell that to no booster no work mandated by governments!!
I dunno. I didn’t read it, but this guy responded to that and seems to have a different interpretation of what’s in the paper :
https://twitter.com/LarsSanderGreen/status/1536927160757125120?s=20&t=RxsUCq5NzohtXazJxjREpA
Someone needs to read it to qualify what it says. If it means what this guys saying, then this is primarily a China problem. And I guess then I can see why ccp is locking down so hard when the rest of world is fine with opening up with omicron.
Lars is correct.
Rajeev is off his head.
If you want to take a narrow view of the Australian situation, it makes it all the more worthwhile to have rolled out vaccination given that the incidence of the Wuhan and Alpha waves here was so small.
The paper (and Lars) also make the pertinent point that those who were vaccinated after Wuhan or Alpha infection don’t gain any immunity, but everyone else does.
I’m invaxxed and happy to be so. I do worry about all those who got the jab though.
This has to be the shortest political honeymoon in the last 120 years?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeHI5G2cY8M
Well this is just great
https://theconversation.com/amp/a-huge-atlantic-ocean-current-is-slowing-down-if-it-collapses-la-nina-could-become-the-norm-for-australia-184254
Brisbane Real Estate? Oh no!
If it’s flooded, forget it.
At least drought will be less of a concern.
And bushfires.
Reckon it’d dramatically increase our agricultural productive capacity off it did settle into a new normal.
10s of thousands of houses being moved above expanded flood plains would no great loss in the long term.
Notice how the mainstream media never tells stories about the winners of climate change,…Only disaster tales.
TISM is reforming…well at least for the Good Things Festival. Yaaayyy!! https://www.abc.net.au/doublej/music-reads/music-news/tism-reformed-good-things-festival-2022/13921966
He ain’t an old man River https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ijx_tT5lCDY
Whatareya..You’re a [email protected] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiHdpAVIHgo
Thunderbirds are coming out…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkAaucd_mYw
“Former President Barack Obama has made an unusual request to install a massive 2,500 gallon commercial-grade propane tank at his Martha’s Vineyard estate, according to reports.”
https://twitter.com/n76247476man/status/1536869491476418560?s=21&t=Oh0fX_5RT2iKbvHqFjL6qA
As one punter asks,
Why doesn’t he request solar panels, or a wind turbine instead? 🤔
Obama was a slick salesman, but did utterly horrid things. Like all those drone strikes.
Obviously he prefers to cook with gas !