Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Share markets are having a relatively good final session for the trading week, as markets anticipate tonight’s US non-farm payrolls AKA unemployment rate print that will set the tone for risk taking for the rest of the month.  In currency land, the Australian dollar is holding on to its recent gains while Euro wants to push higher against USD. Oil prices are sliding very slightly with Brent crude still hovering near the $120USD per barrel level while gold is trying to follow through on its recent new daily high as it gets back above the $1850USD per ounce level:

Mainland and other Chinese share markets are closed today while Japanese stock markets were able to lift higher on the back of a weak Yen, with the Nikkei 225 index closing 1.2% higher at 27747 points while the USDJPY pair continues to consolidate after its near week long melt up, remaining just below the 130 handle:

Australian stocks have also had a good run with the ASX200 taking back its previous session losses to close 0.8% higher at 7238 points while the Australian dollar is holding on to the mid 72 level after its breakout overnight as short term momentum retraces:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are neutral however as we head into the European with the S&P500 four hourly futures chart showing price still holding on to its overnight gains but unable to exceed the start of week high at the 4200 point level. Short term momentum is still very positive but not yet overbought so a new trend is not underway:

The economic calendar will focus squarely on tonight’s US non-farm payrolls print.

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  1. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    Coming Tuesday is the day,
    Taking predictions now : how much RBA will increase the interest rates?

  2. Ugh everyone has banged on about markets since day one on this blog and others IMO … so what are we really talking about … ummm …

    Pray tell like some Atlantic sort getting in on a financial deal with some Eastern European sorts, total fraud, 10s of millions are made, caught, U.S. lawman tells Atlantic bloke if he rolls on the others he can keep his loot, does so, but now Manhattan is not the same after the crime, moves to Oz by means of wealth in getting passport, criteria states he must start or buy business and employ 20, buys a pearl farm, employs local indigenous population, only extracts and never seeds new stock, wipes out farm stock, closes up shop, has millions in pearls still …. lives happily ever after ….

  3. Mining BoganMEMBER

    17 wickets

    The ball was loopy

    The batters were clueless

    It was glorious.

    • DingwallMEMBER

      I would have loved to have listened to the pommy commentators ….. shortly after they were 1/59

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I was. They were somewhat c0ck-a-hoop.

        Then they weren’t.

        Then they were somewhat critical.

  4. Lol gtta love MB staff and most commenters.
    When “markets” make them money – “yay markets, govt better not mess with markets”
    When “markets” cost them money – “It’s all labors fault, govt needs to step in”

    Maybe Labor might be doing things better if all you swing voters and perpetual critics had given em more governing time over the last 20 years. Parental visas meant they were unelectable in 2019 despite the raft of really good policy ideas hey LVO? Well enjoy the “benefits”, small target was what it took to win and nationalising a company ain’t really in line with small target. And all you vote independent goons need to shut up, it’s not a reality in our system to have a govt of independents so stop.

    Yep, say whatever you all want to disagree/shout me down but we’re all responsible for this, we get the govt we deserve and they’re all useless beacuse of us, stop blaming rusted ons and take some responsibility, maybe Ermo is right, join ALP en masse and make it the party we need it to be.

    End rant

    • Not quite consistent there. Gillard opposed WA’s gas reservation because “market knows best” (the other motives were not publicly disclosed).

    • Naw its the dominate orthodox economics that all political parties are beholden too … yet decades of Stalinist like social grooming has burned it in and any Government action might trigger an event as investors have a psychotic episode … why everyone loses the plot when China clips a wing or two of some wealthy person …. gasp …

    • DingwallMEMBER

      I can’t deal with either party … they are as bad as each other. Weak in Government and weak in Opposition.

      But …. if Labor want to govern for a long time they need to extract digits and get things done……. stop the excuses why it can’t be done….. do it

      • Yep! And Pronto!! I get the impression the already cynical public have run out of patience…..

      • “Both as bad as each other”

        Getting sick of this one too. It’s one or the other, that’s the system. Not happy with them, change them. Voting doesn’t work, buying the LNP only works if you’re rich enough so all we’re left with is join the ALP and take it over or wait for the catastrophe that finally breaks our system or enough people to call for change (highly unlikely)….

        I don’t have all the answers but fmd most of you mob are just gass bagging whingers who whinge no matter what and do nothing to change it.

        MB staff have switched from attack dog on LNP to attack dog on ALP and I don’t think it’s gnna get the results we need, they’re just another negative voice in the public sphere who will ride the ALP back into opposition and that doesn’t undo the decades of damage done to our country/political system. Not saying go soft on ALP but going rabid on them after a week or two isn’t going to change anything, we want it to but it isn’t reality.

        Maybe the Teals will fix thing bahahahahahaha

        • DingwallMEMBER

          So you are likely to be sick of hearing it for a while. We are in Groundhog Day voting sh!t out for the same sh!t until one party actually changes – I have suggested the only way out is a crisis such that the cycle is broken and these numpties have to step up to the plate. Bring on the crisis,

          • Skip’s nailed it. Even in the recent crisis the rich got richer, the poor got a glimpse of the picture. And already it’s questionable whether the new squad are up to it. Albo was distracting 101, with Republic spiel today. So Important…..

          • Colin … none of these politicians have studied, knowledge/experience of what has transpired in the name of economics post WWII, gasp at any non biased natural history on monetary theory in context of any timeline from 5K years ago, let alone the economic context at the time e.g. why was one gold coin more important, desirable, sought after, than some other gold coin just based off the mint stamp on it …. certain commodities like spice more valuable than gold in the day … et al …

            Groan the few that have dipped a toe in it did so to get a certificate and not an education, thus they could say they were special people that could then administrate to the ignorant unwashed e.g. the elites had a wild party and did some silly things so to preserve the social order [natural … cough] the unwashed need a good dose of austerity.

            I’ll just highlight Rubin in the past advising Clinton on economic matters and when it was pointed out that wages and productivity did not blink and eye. Then Clinton did NAFTA and a bunch of other free market stuff to screw anyone not at the big table. Now people wonder why Yanks like having so much freedom that its a bingo card going postal shooting gallery and other good times …

            “Going Postal examines the phenomenon of rage murder that took America by storm in the early 1980’s and has since grown yearly in body counts and symbolic value. By looking at massacres in schools and offices as post-industrial rebellions, Mark Ames is able to juxtapose the historical place of rage in America with the social climate after Reaganomics began to effect worker’s paychecks. But why high schools? Why post offices? Mark Ames examines the most fascinating and unexpected cases, crafting a convincing argument for workplace massacres as modern day slave rebellions. Like slave rebellions, rage massacres are doomed, gory, sometimes inadvertently comic, and grossly misunderstood. Going Postal seeks to contextualize this violence in a world where working isn’t—and doesn’t pay—what it used to. Part social critique and part true crime page-turner, Going Postal answers the questions asked by commentators on the nightly news and films such as Bowling for Columbine.”


            So glad that anti Christ commie socialist Obama living large on the beach whooped all those corporatists … chortle … looks in mirror …

          • Thanks Skip. I’ve got a long list of books to read that I never seem to get around to, but this might be one to put at the front of the queue. Understanding these angles might just save my plinking sport from activists for a few more years.

        • You & Ermo might well be right, but good luck getting fat, lazy, apathetic boiling frogs to front up – won’t happen till we’re belly up.
          Maybe rocking the boat to set the public tone early is all we’ve got when you can’t outbid the moneyed hypnotoads?

          Interesting that Dave’s getting a run in MSN though….. Useful iidjut now?

    • SweeperMEMBER

      Taxation demonisation and tax cut fetishism are the underlying illnesses of our time.
      When Labor gave up on the industrial route for redistribution under Keating all that was left was taxation.
      Can’t stand the teals.
      How are you going to fix climate change while defunding the only actor that can fix it.
      Small l liberals are frauds comforted by never having to think a problem through to its uncomfortable conclusion

      • Pigovian taxes without the funding government BS e.g. IMO leads right back to their preferred framework about government stealing others property/earned wealth and the need to privatize more all whilst defending any social good.

    • I hate Woollahra. Years ago was visiting my sister in Sydney and went to a good butchers in Woollahra called Victor Churchill and was buying some sauces they had, walked in, saw sauces in fridge, open fridge and grabbed what I wanted and walked to counter to pay and got told off because apparently you’re not supposed to get things yourself the serf does it for you.

      No signs or indications of the protocols, guess bogans from qld just aren’t cut out to shop in Woollahra….

    • The 2 minutes I listened – He’s right. Even here in a forum of (some) sober minds we can’t discuss the N word.

  5. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    40,000 Factories At Risk Of Closing In Pakistan’s Commercial Capital Amid Fuel Crisis … Zerohedge

    Sri Lanka Can’t Use $1.5 Billion Swap on China IMF Concerns … Bloomberg

    How Sri Lanka’s Crisis Hurts 8,000 Miles Away … the Diplomat

    ‘People are going to die’: crisis-hit Sri Lanka runs out of medicine … The Guardian

  6. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    Finally sold the house in the what the agent conceded is the most angry and cynical market he’s ever seen. Prices in Sydney are coming down from the highs of summer at 50-100k a week. I told the agent sell it before Tuesday cos if the rba move again there’s another 100k gone, need to change my handle ….

    • DingwallMEMBER

      agent conceded is the most angry and cynical market he’s ever seen
      Why? Because the agent actually had to work hard to sell something instead of doing f all and watching idiots smash their door down to the office or bid like idiots 500k above the reserve?
      They deserve their time in the Arctic tundra without the annual new Lexus and gold tooth …… swine

    • So what was the reason for anger and cynicism? And who was angry and cynical…buyers, sellers or both?

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        Buyers, buyers offering 400k below asking. Buyers at the auction yelling crazy prices and everyone laughing. No joke.

        • TailorTrashMEMBER

          At least you got out ……..lest you have to change your handle to SuckedUpSavvy ) …….( no offence meant )

    • That was a long and interesting read. The only thing that really stood out to me was that they quoted Bourdain and I’d just come from the website of Victor Churchill (mentioned above) and they also quoted Bourdain.

      Hardly a salient point but I enjoyed the coincidence.

    • yada yada yada. You need peak production or suddenly multi millions of people are dead. Don’t listen to me, just watch the news over the next 12 months.

      • AGAIN … the fragility you speak of is the direct result of Norman Borlaug’s corporatist food agenda and in 2nd place distribution/waste loss. Then you have factors like nestle foods buying up water rights, wanna talk about almond farms in Calif central valley, its a really long list …

        But hay … I noticed you completely ignore all the machinations by corporatists in privatizing foreign lands so they can ***control*** more of the food supply and be price setters in perpetuity to buff their balance sheets and with it bonuses of unimaginable size.

        Then some don’t think America has a Oligarch problem and plutocracy is the height of human social organization.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      The people ……..that aluminium ( or is it stainless steel ?) masterpiece might be in their sights ……..Albo’s flag statement might have a nice ring to it ………

      • I was right there at the time when the snot nosed kid snow boarders took off. No edict, snow plow down to ice on every steep transition, and move like a random pack of chooks one never new which way they would turn in front of you. This was about the time I really got stuck into glen/tree skiing.

        Nothing like popping out onto a main course with branches and pine cones stuck to your gear in getting others to make a hole for you and out of the way. Wonder it any of the MB skiers know the secret to tree skiing or the fun with tree wells. Then again Vale had the best ski lift for watching epic yard sales.

  7. New weekly Aussie podcast focusing on China, The China Files, Ep 2 chat with Andrew Phelan (26min)

    The China Files with Chris Smith: Belt & Road Initiative with Andrew Phelan

    Episode webpage:

    Media file:

    • Nah mate! We’re about to demolish the sluice-gates.. We’re about to see a boomin’ economy the size of which you’re not going to believe.

  8. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    The rough road ahead from fantasy economics to reality economics … some (just some) points to consider …

    JP Morgan CEO Screams Economic Collapse | Unseen Interview … Stoic Investor

    Famine … Dr John Campbell … Youtube

    … with the influence of the internet … Professor Niall Ferguson explains …

    Historian Niall Ferguson on the roots of today’s political polarization … Long Now Foundation … Youtube

    … Professor of Transport Studies at the University of Sydney, David Levinson, explains this reality very well too …

    David Levinson … The New New Normal … The Transportist

    • Hugh PavletichMEMBER

      UPDATE … The rough road ahead from fantasy economics to reality economics … some (just some) points to consider …

      Australia’s new Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers starts to make things clear in the lead up to the new Governments October Budget …

      Australia Inflation Accelerated Further From 5.1%, Chalmers Says … Michael Heath … Bloomberg / Financial Post

      (Bloomberg) — Australian consumer prices have accelerated from the 5.1% recorded in the first three months, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said, intensifying pressure on households and suggesting further interest-rate increases ahead.

      “It’s now really clear that the inflation challenge that Australians are facing is worse,” Chalmers told News Corp. in an interview Sunday, saying he’ll likely raise the forecast in next month’s economic statement to parliament. “People should anticipate that it will be higher than it is now. Significantly higher.” … read more via hyperlink above …

      New Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers a week ago …

      … Guess where this is heading ? …

      Federal Treasurer issues grave warning about the state of the economy | ABC News (Australia) … Youtube

      … extract …

      … Early life

      Chalmers was born in Brisbane,[2] the youngest of three children born to Graham and Carol Chalmers. His father worked as a courier and his mother worked as a nurse. They divorced when he was 14, by which time his older sisters had left home.[3]

      Chalmers grew up in Logan City in Brisbane’s south.[4] He attended Catholic schools before going on to Griffith University, where he completed the degrees of Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Communications. He went on to complete a PhD in political science at the Australian National University, writing his doctoral thesis on the prime ministership of Paul Keating,[2][3] titled “Brawler statesman: Paul Keating and prime ministerial leadership in Australia”.[5] … read more via hyperlink above …