Roy Morgan’s latest polling has the Albanese Government leading the Coalition (L-NP) by 6% on a two party preferred basis. This is an increase on last month’s Federal Election result, where the ALP won 52% to the L-NP’s 48%.
However, Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence Index has fallen for three consecutive weeks amid rising concerns around energy. This comes after reaching a high of 111.5 immediately after last month’s Federal Election.
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Commenting on the result, Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said the energy crisis impacting Australia’s East Coast is beginning to impact Labor:
“The ALP’s first few weeks in Government have been dominated by concerns about energy prices – and reliability of supply, inflation and interest rates which all relate directly to cost of living concerns – consistently the issue that rates highest for Australians…
“These concerns surrounding energy prices, as well as inflation and interest rates, have also fed into other key indicators that Roy Morgan track. This includes the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence which is down 9.1pts to 81.7 since the Federal Election, although it did increase by 1.3pts this week, and the weekly Inflation Expectations which are now at 5.9%, up 0.3% points this week and up 0.6% points since the Federal Election.
“Both of these indicators have clearly moved in the wrong direction over the last few weeks and if they continue to do so support for the Government will be reduced in the weeks and months ahead.”
The Albanese Government won’t stay popular for long if it does not find a solution to Australia’s energy crisis.
The way it is heading, Australian households and businesses will soon face soaring electricity and gas costs. This will add massively to cost-of-living pressures, will drive business closures, will send inflation soaring, and will force the Reserve Bank to respond with higher interest rates, in turn lifting mortgage repayments even higher.
It is a lethal cocktail that could deliver social unrest and a widespread backlash against the incumbent Albanese Government.
Anthony Albanese has a simple political choice: side with 20 million Australian voters and drop the hammer on the energy cartel with gas reservation and a super profits tax, or side with the energy cartel and suffer the backlash from 20 million voters. The choice should be obvious.
Get on it, Albo. Your political survival is at stake. And Australians will reward you if you do the right thing.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also Chief Economist and co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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