The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow model reading for Q2 is clinging to positive territory, at a +0.3 percent estimate as of Monday’s update.
Data Trek: “recent readings have been disappointing and awkwardly close to negative. Let’s not forget that Q1’s GDP has been revised to -1.5 percent. With “recession” chatter now everywhere, GDPNow is saying we are close to hitting the 2 quarters of negative growth definition of the term. Close, but not there yet…”
Goldman calling bull on those 23 margin estimates. Bull shit that is. GS: “Analyst estimates show S&P 500 profit margins climbing to new highs in 2023. Despite tightening financial conditions, persistent input cost pressures, and slowing revenue growth, analysts continue to forecast a rise in profit margins next year. Excluding Financials and Utilities, analyst estimates show aggregate S&P 500 net profit margins expanding by 30 bp in 2023. The median stock is projected to grow net margins by 60 bp to 14.5%”
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.