Aussie property investors defy interest rate gloom

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released credit growth data for the month of May, which captures the first 0.25% hike in the official cash rate.

Mortgage credit growth rose by 0.6% over May, with the quarterly rate of growth rebounding slightly to 1.8%:

Quarterly mortgage credit growth

Rebound despite May’s 0.25% rate hike.

The quarterly rebound was driven by investors, which hit their highest level of mortgage growth since mid-2015:

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Quarterly mortgage credit growth

Investors take over from owner-occupiers in driving mortgage growth.

However, annual mortgage growth is topping out at 7.9%, and will likely soon begin to fall:

Annual mortgage credit growth

Annual mortgage credit growth tops out.

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Again, investor mortgage growth is rising, while owner-occupier mortgage growth is on the decline:

Annual mortgage credit growth by segment

Investor mortgage growth rising, owner-occupier mortgage growth falling.

With the RBA tipped to hike interest rates aggressively over the remainder of 2022, expect mortgage growth to fall as buyers wait on the sidelines.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.