Auction market in free fall amid vanishing buyer demand

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Australia’s auction market recorded it lowest clearance rate of 2022 last weekend, according to CoreLogic’s final auction results.

As shown in the graphic below, the final national auction clearance rate slumped to 59.3%, driven by Sydney whose final clearance rate fell to just 56.4%:

Final auction results

According to CoreLogic:

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With 3,226 auctions held across the city, last week’s auction activity was up 92.9% compared to the previous week (1,672) and up 11.0% compared to this time last year (2,905). Despite recording a small rise in clearance rates the week prior (61.3%), the combined capitals clearance rate returned to the downward trend that has been evident since mid-February last week, with 59.3% of auctions returning a successful result. Last week’s result marks the first time the combined capitals clearance rate has fallen below the 60% mark since late August 2021 (58.0%) when Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra were in lockdown. This time last year 73.5% of auctions held were successful…

Auction activity across Sydney exceeded 1,000 for the first time in seven weeks, with 1,109 homes auctioned across the city. Compared to the 532 auctions held the week prior, last week’s auction activity was up 108.5%… Sydney’s clearance rate fell 2.0 percentage points last week with 56.4% of auctions reporting a successful result. Despite the fall, last week’s auction result is still above the recent low of 53.8% recorded the week ending 15th May. This time last year 76.0% of the 1,174 auctions held were successful.

As shown in the next chart, the national auction clearance rate has fallen heavily over 2022:

National auction clearance rate

The result is especially bearish for Sydney home values given the historically strong correlation between clearance rates and prices:

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Sydney auction clearances versus prices

The Sydney house price bust has well and truly begun.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.