Auction market flashes red for Sydney house prices

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CoreLogic’s preliminary auction report was another hammer blow for Sydney’s housing market, with Sydney recording a preliminary clearance rate of only 59%, which dragged the national clearance rate down to 62.3%:

Australia's preliminary auction clearance rates

According to CoreLogic:

There were 2,635 homes taken to auction across the combined capital cities this week, down from 3,226 over the previous week and 2,668 this time last year. Of the 2,024 results collected so far, 62.3 per cent were successful. The previous week returned a preliminary clearance rate of 63.7 per cent, with the final clearance rate revising down below 60 per cent (59.3 per cent) for the first time since late August 2021. It is likely to hold below 60 per cent again this week once the remaining results are collected. This time last year, the clearance rate was a higher 70.6 per cent across the combined capital cities…

There were 915 auctions held across Sydney this week, compared to 1,109 over the previous week and 1,164 this time last year. Of the 708 results collected so far, 59.0 per cent were successful, down from the previous week’s preliminary clearance rate of 62.8 per cent, which revised down to 56.4 per cent at final figures.

Based on these results, Sydney’s final auction clearance rate should plunge below 55%, which means buyer demand has evaporated. Given historical correlations, this points to steeper house price falls for Sydney:

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Sydney house prices versus auction clearance rates

The great Sydney house price crash has begun. How deep it goes depends on how aggressively the RBA hikes interest rates.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.