Auction collapse drops hammer on house prices

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CoreLogic has released its final auction market results for last weekend, with the nation’s clearance rate falling to a fresh 2022 low of 58.2%.

The fall nationally was led by Sydney whose clearance rate plunged to just 53.3% – also a 2022 low. Melbourne’s clearance rate was higher at 58.8%, but also a 2022 low:

Final auction clearance rates

According to CoreLogic:

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With 58.2% of last week’s auctions recording a successful result, the clearance rate fell 1.1 percentage points. Overtaking the week prior, last week’s clearance rate is now the lowest combined capital clearance rate since late August 2021 (58.0%) when Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra were in lockdown. This time last year 70.6% of auctions held were successful…

Melbourne’s clearance rate fell below 60% this week to 58.8%, down 1.6 percentage points from the week prior (60.4%). Last week’s result overtook the week ending 8th May (59.8%) as Melbourne’s lowest clearance rate of the year to date and lowest rate since Mid-September 2021 (58.5%). Of the 1,081 auctions held this time last year, 64.0% were successful…

Last week’s [Sydney] result was down 3.1 percentage points from the week prior (56.4%) and down 50 basis points from the week ending 15th May (53.8%) which was previously Sydney’s lowest clearance rate of the year. This time last year 75.6% of the 1,164 auctions held in Sydney were successful.

As shown in the next chart, the plunging auction clearance rate is pointing to accelerating price falls across Sydney:

Sydney auction clearances versus prices

Auction clearances are also pointing to slower price falls for Melbourne:

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Melbourne auctions versus house prices

Buyer demand is clearly evaporating. The Reserve Bank’s aggressive interest rate tightening will obviously make the situation worse.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.