After the 20-year boom comes the great Australian housing bust

CoreLogic recently released data showing that Australian dwelling values soared by 190.5% over the 20 years to March 2022, driven by a 209.3% surge in detached house values:

In the past 20 years, the Australian housing market has seen six periods of upswing, interrupted by 5 periods of notable decline. These downswings in the housing market have largely occurred off the back of changes to credit conditions, such as macro-prudential changes or lift in interest rates, alongside negative economic shocks like the GFC, or the initial onset of COVID-19. In the past two decades, housing market downturns have lasted, on average, around 25 months, with an average peak-to-trough decline of -5.0% in value…

The past 20 years has largely been characterized by declines in the official RBA cash rate, especially from late 2008 amid the GFC…

The pandemic period also coincided with ultra-low cash rate settings, high household savings and government incentives for home purchases, which has actually generated the fastest upswing in values since the 1980s.

As mentioned by CoreLogic, the secular decline in mortgage rates since 2008 has been a key driver of the Australian house price boom, with stimulus playing a supporting role over the pandemic.

Indeed, Australian mortgage rates more than halved over the 20-year period, with the average discount variable mortgage rate hitting a record low 3.45% before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) commenced its tightening cycle in May:

Australian mortgage rates

Australian mortgage rates more than halved over the past 20 years.

Now Australians are facing the opposite dynamic, with the ‘market’ tipping the sharpest rise in Australian interest rates on record at the same time as households grapple with the un-stimulus of rising costs for essentials.

If the market’s forecast for interest rates comes to fruition, then Australia’s discount variable mortgage rate will more than double to 7.1% by mid next year, taking rates back to 2011 levels:

Projected Australian mortgage rates

Mortgage rates would double under futures market’s interest rate forecast.

The difference this time is that Australian dwelling values as a share of household disposable income are 50% higher than they were in 2011. Thus, Australian house prices are much more vulnerable to a correction as interest rates are lifted.

Australian house prices to income

Australian house prices are rigged to blow as interest rates rise.

If the secular decline in interest rates supported by stimulus were the key drivers of Australia’s epic house price boom. Then surely ramping up interest rates in concert with the rising cost of essentials will have the opposite effect in delivering a major housing bust?

The ball is very much in the RBA’s court. How deep house prices fall will depend on how aggressively it hikes rates. And if the RBA follows the market, then we will be staring at the biggest house price crash in living memory.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. How aggressively the RBA hikes is dependant on how strong inflationary pressures are over the next 18 months.

    Durable goods orders in the US have just smashed to the upside, which tells me consumers are spending their money now before it’s worth less tomorrow, which tells me inflationary psychology is solidified and serious inflation is baked-in for some time.

    But why despair? Sell overpriced OZ property now, while you still can, at very high prices.

    Price increases over the past 20 years were shocking, true.
    But price falls will be no less shocking.

    • “… [U.S.] consumers are spending their money now…”

      except, U.S. consumers are spending money they don’t have. Credit card debt in the U.S. hits all-time high. Credit can be created out of thin air, goods can’t. So there might be a possibility of goods shortages expectations in the mix as well.

    • Michael Pettis twitted a link to a SCMP articles stating that china containers rates tumbled as US inflation cools.

  2. pfh007.comMEMBER

    Yes. 20 years of monetary policy lunacy as the deregulated bank credit ideology fully hatched and flapped its wings.

    Yet another get rich quick endless good times turkey that is now finding gravity is so unkind.

    But instead of turning the turkey into sandwich filling we will keep trying to boot it aloft one more time.

    “Go on Governor Phil give it another go! More subsidies, more cheap rates, more imported guest workers, more pensioners back working”

    It is pathetic but final quarter football is often untidy.

    • U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt…. The passion for getting the objective of one’s momentary desire, without actually paying for it, has become the prevalent form of the reign of sophistry in our recent times.”

      What does history do again 🤔

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Exactly. 20-years of policy stupidity.

      And that will all magically stop happening now because?

      PPORK NOW!

  3. In 5 years you’ll buy a nice home with a small amount of gold
    Say gold 3x up
    Houses divide by 3
    $100k of gold now will buy you a $900k home now
    $100k gold $300k
    $900k home $300k
    I think you’ll be able to settle in physical, buyer will accept
    BTC has a huge runway ahead, don’t listen to them, they have no idea what they are talking about, it’s normal to have a big correction
    The USD has a huge way to fall over the next 5 years, Big USD (DXY) bear market ahead

    Gold & BTC don’t compete, they are a hedge against a declining USD.

    USD is on the way out of existence next 5 years

    That will push the AUD above parity, still big upside in commodities

    That’s the other concern, if AUD is say $1 to $1.20 it will really depreciate housing even more

    Can you imagine AUD 1.20 & 15 to 20% interest rates.
    You don’t want to own an unrennovstsd home on big land will be worthless
    Own something fully finished on small land, land price will become close to worthless, all the value will be in the building.

    No one will care less about land except farmland you can grow food

    Food will be in huge shortage & very expensive, energy heating petrol & cost to build a home will be out of reach

    Will be very hard to get any finance

    In the crash ahead, you’ll buy something if you have access to money more than half cheaper buy something of a developer that’s gone broke, something you won’t ever have to spend money on very small land,

    Big commodity super price boom ahead over next several years

    • working class hamMEMBER

      Sounds a lot like the 80’s, only tradesmen would take on renovation projects as their skills could be bartered.
      With labour costs in construction going to the moon, systemic changes may be introduced, opening more alternatives for owner builders and the DIY brigade.

      • WCH

        I cannot work this one out

        Double building costs
        Materials double with shortages
        Interest rates at 10% (5 year fixed rate at ANZ 6.09% now) so don’t think rates can’t go to 10 plus %

        Ok so let’s say at 10% loan servicing & cost to build 50% plus to build

        So now you can borrow $550 instead of $800k
        & house that was $500 to build is $700k

        How does that work. A house will be building value only, has to be

        Guess they’ll do 50 year loans but most of the banks will be gone

        This whole debt fuelled Ponzi scheme is unravelling right in front of us

        Does anyone know what will happen because above is already happening it’s not a forecast

        • House construction had declined in price with improvements in technology and efficiency (at the cost of durability). House size also increased massively. Once recession kicks in tradies will be out of work (especially once state budgets feel the pinch) and their wages will fall. Smaller houses on cheap (sub 100k) land can be made for $250. Not that you will need to make many when no one has a job, and half the dual citizens jingled their way home to escape negative equity.

        • One thing that was a talking point 15 years ago which isn’t so much these days is the price of tradesmen. It used to be the case that become a tradesperson was a decent vocation but was largely a fall-back option for blokes who just weren’t cut out for school. Then the 90s/internet happened and suddenly manual jobs became very on the nose so so tradies became like unicorns. This was compounded by the government making training apprentices as costly as possible, driving most tradesmen to just not bother and to rather focus on their ever growing hoards. The term cashed up bogans started getting thrown around but it has just been normalized over the last 10 years. To get a plumber to just show up the other day I had to fork out $300, before any actual effort. Then home builder last year………… lord have mercy.

          I think over the next few years tradies may need to start bidding for work as it gets scarce and this will likely shave a significant amount off building costs.

    • Jumping jack flash

      I agree this presently looks like the scenario we will experience and i am very concerned.
      Unless they decide to suddenly reverse course, like they did in 2008.

      What they’re doing now is pretty much the same thing, except that prevailing conditions are orders of magnitude worse.

      There’s nothing like a couple of collapsing banks to shock them into reversing course. The central banks’ prime directive is to protect the banks, after all.

      And as far as I’m concerned, this current period of rising interest rates is completely from left of field, considering the obvious foundations they were laying for hyperinflating the debt away, just a few months ago.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Cool story bloke, but what jacket pocket does one store their gold bar safely in huh? Serious question.

      • I thought I saw a gold bar in one of your trouser pockets. (Or were you just pleased to see me?)

      • War ending would be a good thing, and I hope it happens. As it’s not good for anyone.

    • “No one will care less about land except farmland you can grow food”

      Why do you think this Bcnich?

      For me, we live in a land constrained world. Space, close to family friends and amenities will always be highly valued. With a growing global population, anything that is finite (land, minerals, natural ecosystems) will become ever more valued. People have shown they dont want to live like slum dogs stacked one on top of each other.

      The cost to build has certainly gone up but this will likely be addressed with tech and automation (over time). If we keep building the same old stuff in the same old way then your point stands.

  4. Vivian DarkbloomMEMBER

    > The difference this time is that Australian dwelling values as a share of household disposable income are 50% higher than they were in 2011.

    This is one difference but by no means the one that’s worth calling out. The key to why ‘this time it’s different’ is that retail consumption is supported by equity released from the bloated paper value of those dwellings. So, yes, rising interest rates will hurt – are already hurting – tight Australian budgets at a time of elevated inflation as a first order effect.

    The real pain on the economy will be unleashed when private school fees, motor yachts and jet skis, Bali holidays and expensive dining, house extensions and SUVs, university fees and weekend ‘bolt-holes’, etc. are no longer within the financial reach of the average Australian consumer as that paper value shrinks before their eyes. At that stage, expect thousands of SMEs to go under – some of zombies from the pandemic period, some of them good businesses – dragging down everything with them.

    • pfh007.comMEMBER

      So grim.

      Fortunately we can avoid all of that if the RBA ignores inflation and keeps the whale mortgages flowing with cheap credit until Albo cracks and brings in enough planeloads of fake skilled labour.

      #SoEasy

      • Vivian DarkbloomMEMBER

        Exactly.

        To my mind, the government’s options are:

        (1) increase number of consumers through immigration (if you have a pulse, come on in)
        (2) increase consumer spending power via low rates, de-regulation, free money, super access, etc
        (3) financial product innovation (duration, risk sharing/offloading, public/private risk partnership, etc.)

        Options (1) and (2) have been the easy go-to mechanism for a decade or two. They are readily understood and executed without requiring technically expertise, insight or planning, and I am fully expecting a government of either colour to pull on those levers as if their lives depended on them, with ever increasing panic, over the coming months. However, (1) has been stuttering and (2) is basically depleted although there might be a bit of fuel left (anyone got a life insurance? That’s a future value asset…)

        Option (3) will be interesting to see unfold, from an academic point of view: it requires actual expertise, deep analysis and a fair bit of creativity to maintain the precarious balance between risk and reward while keeping all ticket clippers happy (enough). I have no doubt, this is where the major development will have to come from to keep the party going. I am not convinced we have the skills base for (3) in Australia but I also always underestimate the power of greed in very ordinary people in position of power.

        Will they try? No doubt, with all they have got. Will they succeed? That’s the trillion dollar question.

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          great comment. Isn’t the BNPL sector an example of option 3 ? You could also argue that crypto is (was, ha!) an exmple of option 3 ?

          If I’m followong along correctly, then the real challenge is how does an “option 3 solution” for lack of a better phrase, function in a high interest rate / high cost of capital / high inflation world ?

          • Vivian DarkbloomMEMBER

            Yes, I do see the BNPL ‘innovation’ as firmly residing within the option (3) category. Crypto was originally independent but has been partially co-opted to the great cause of the financialization of everything, but really more like a crazy sideshow.

            The success of anything in option (3) will need to satisfy such diverse and orthogonal requirements against a backdrop of extreme limitations that I simply cannot see a way forward. I personally see graphs intersecting, with non-sensical negative results tumbling out of equations.

            That does not mean there won’t be some arcane creation of yet another stretch of financial runway, just that my imagination is not up to the task of forecasting insanity.

          • just that my imagination is not up to the task of forecasting insanity
            I know exactly how you feel. Sensible valuations with functioning markets are somewhat predictable, however stupidity has a life of its own and does my head in.

            I know you’ve made this point before, but I suspect that neither our Politicians nor our Economists have spent much time thinking about the nature of a society where Assets cannot be acquired through work.
            If work is worthless and assets are priceless then assets owners will need to be a protected class. This will not be an egalitarian society, far from it, we will have created a form of modern day slavery.
            I can’t imagine any Aussie accepting this, yet day by day we’re accelerating towards this outcome…Insanity

        • Simpler solution is to cap existing debt IR with a TFF V2 and protect mass collapse, limit new debt creation through price discovery (high IR) to slowly deflate the bubbles. If they aligned with GOV they can also do MMT to the masses. RBA can do this tomorrow if they choose. All the other items on your list have externalities which are hard to control. When SHTF simple solutions are usually the ones chosen. Albo and RBA will be no different to Slomo and RBA on this front.

      • Fishing72MEMBER

        Here’s a paragraph from the SMH regarding results from the census:

        “The most obvious impact of the pandemic is on our population. Since the last census, the country welcomed more than 1 million migrants. But of that group, 850,000 arrived in 2017, 2018 and 2019, or almost 300,000 a year. During the COVID-19 years, just 166,000 migrants moved to Australia.“

        So Australia was actually running 300K immigration per year and last year JUST 166K human imports into Australia!?!?!?

        JUST 166K?

        Totally not a Ponzi scheme….

      • The only can left to kick is super for houses. And the super roaches are not about to give up their dinner ticket without an even bigger kick back. Hey look super to 15%

      • agree. Ignoring inflation or better still raising the target is definitely the best option.

    • Essential purchase only
      High food prices
      High transport costs
      Higher mortgage costs
      Higher rent costs
      Higher electricity costs
      Higher property taxes
      Going to be a battle to keep a roof over your head & food on the table

      Won’t be much left over for all these other pleasures

      You’ll have to find pleasure in things that don’t cost money

      Ask Reusa, he will know ways you can find pleasure in something that is free

      • Fishing72MEMBER

        Not sure that you’d consider his recreational activities without cost? Not once you factor in the price of lounge girl hire, party favourites necessary to get people in the mood and Doctor’s fees for medical intervention when things go awry in your plumbing after interacting with the genitally unclean.

        • Jumping jack flash

          Yes my mother has one of these from when we were hippies with no electricity

        • I still have the 1 my great grandmother purchased in the 1920s along with it’s receipt. Quite cool actually. Real workmanship in them too!

          • LOL. We’ve got one. Just moved it from hallway so I could rebuild the ceiling. Those Singer machines are so good. You can actually sew through canvas et al. They are so tough.

  5. And no body did anything about this excessive growth. Infact the RBA, APRA, and governments all sat back egged it on.

    What’s wrong with modest annual house price growth rate at around 5%. Why don’t we have an Authority that manages this. Couldn’t we have a mortgage rate buffer that’ is applied when cash rates falls too low, so that prices don’t get out of control.

    • Because they are all in on the Ponzi scheme
      Makes no difference
      That’s all history

      They have to keep printing money but we will have very high inflation & very high int rates in the 20s

      I said this a year ago, central banks are trapped bbbrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

      The bond market is going to drive int rates over this decade to extremely high levels, this is all unravelling & they are a 1 trick pony bbbrrrrrrrrr

      • Very high interest rates and high inflation, you say? Without a shadow of a doubt.

        (UK) Doctors threaten to join rail workers by going on strike as they demand 30pc pay rise

        Tomorrow’s mortgage rates of 10% will look kind compared to what’s coming after that.

        • I’m old enough to remember the 1970’s, my dad worked in the building industry so the dinner table conversation centered around which group was going on strike this week. One week it’d be the Electricians and they’d get some out-sized boost to their pay, so the very next week it was Plumbers or Carpenters or Builders labourers or the truck drivers or or or.
          As for building schedules/ timetables it was anyone’s guess when any part of the building would be competed. Lots of last minute adjustments to get someone on site so that something was progressing, all to often to find out that the work needed to be redone because because because.
          Striking became a game of one-upmanship, however the wages definitely mattered because prices reflected the difficulty all businesses had in achieving real world Productivity.
          Personally I find it hard to imagine any way that we can unwind the excesses of the last two decades without taking an economic side trip to the 70’s. Unfortunately once you’ve got that 70’s mindset the rest happens on autopilot.
          What’s that famous Cicero quote :
          “To be ignorant of what occurred before you were born is to remain always a child”

        • working class hamMEMBER

          With 30% wage increases, debts will be inflated into nothing.
          The only real thing holding us back is wages, once that dam breaks, prolonged inflation until FHB are taking on 2 million dollar mortgages in Ipswich.

    • Shifting private debt to public, the core of Keen’s idea, makes sense in a world where private’s low and public’s higher than us.

      • Camden HavenMEMBER

        Has keen run his ideas past Xi and Kuroda yet.
        I’m sure they won’t mind

  6. Aren’t interest rates essentially set internationally? The RBA tinkering around the fringes?

    • The Penske FileMEMBER

      Agree. Particularly in the second tier space where so many low doc borrowers sit.

    • Jumping jack flash

      When the rest raise theirs, there is irresistible pressure to also raise ours. The same was true when they cut theirs.

      • Yep, mortgage debt is only $2.7T, easy for them to cap the rates on that small pile to get through the most painful period. GOV and RBA will not allow 20% of the populace to be booted out of their homes during a massive recession. Simply wont happen because in the end, they are the ones liable for this mess. Banks balance sheets will be bailed out again by TFF V2 and MMT will be deployed as needed.

        If the recession truly hits, consumption will crash and so will some of the inflationary pressures. Eventually the RBA will realise the remaining inflationary pressures are non discretionary items and they will look through them.

        • Camden HavenMEMBER

          I’m of the opinion that our economy and economic predicament is a dimension like time, can be warped but not stopped and definitely not reversed

  7. Jumping jack flash

    “As mentioned by CoreLogic, the secular decline in mortgage rates since 2008 has been a key driver of the Australian house price boom, with stimulus playing a supporting role over the pandemic.”

    I find this the most interesting. So no rampant immigration and dire shortage, then?

    No cashed up Chinese buyers?

    Just debt, debt eligibility, and debt availability?
    Price becomes no object when there’s enough debt to pay any price. Debt-fuelled demand is also a wonderous thing.

    Its always fantastic when they admit the truth precisely when it makes no difference.

    • Two houses caught on fire and killed the occupants.

      In one house a dog kicked over the electric radiator which set fire to the curtains and then engulfed the entire house.

      In the other house unattended chips on the cooktop caught fire and set fire to the kitchen wall.

      A fireman from CoreLogic noted that the amount of carpet in each house was the core driver of the quantity of smoke from each blaze.

      Did this fireman make a valuable contribution to the discussion about the fires?

  8. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    We’re gunna need 1,000,000 million immigrants per year to prevent this house price Catastrophe
    It’s the only way.

  9. Know IdeaMEMBER

    That first chart is so wrong. As if real estate in Australia has declined at any point in the last twenty years. As if! There is no bbq gathering in the country where that false fact would be given any credibility.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      I still come across many who have no idea what is coming.
      A lot of people are in for a shock.

  10. OnsmokoMEMBER

    No bust. Our governments have their shared equity schemes fired up. 50, 60… 100% share, absolutely….

  11. 2023HomelessMEMBER

    There are already homes in Canberra where the asking price is now roughly 20% below where it listed post auction.
    https://m.realestate.com.au/property-house-act-lyons-139314383

    Was listed $1.189 post auction, then $1.125, now $.995….while everyone says Sydney and Melbourne will bear the brunt, I’m seeing Canberra drop like a lead balloon.

    And before anyone says it was over priced initially. I did ask a realestate mate for a rough price guide pre auction. And thought it was 1.15-1.2m. And all the website valuations are still stuck 1.2-1.3m.

    There are many more properties like this across Canberra. Especially in the $1-1.5m bracket where people who wanted to get out of an apartment in COVID pushed up prices for houses with space. Canberra also had the allure of a ‘regional city’ with a good ‘lifestyle’ in COVID. So lots of people moved here from out of town. Plus the stability of a growing public service to meet covid stimulus and Heath needs.

    It’s the canary. And the canary is choking on rate rises.

  12. MathiasMEMBER

    Its like I’ve been saying… I think I’ll get the government to buy me a nice Ocean front Property with some nice soil for a veggie garden out back. Maybe a big large fence to keep them pesky people out and a shotgun for those who refuse to take the hint.

    Land is worthless when you dont have a Labor Force ( and Death Rates are higher then Birth rates with 30% of Western Baby Boomer populations dying ). When the money stops and WW3 comes, you’ll need more then immigration to keep prices high. You’ll need a Fking miracle.

    Peace and Quiet, Surfing and Self-Sufficiency surrounded by mother nature. What more can a man ask for?

    Boomers should have listened. Oh well, you blew up your pensions and now most of you will probably be dead. This is the path they chose.

    Looking after the young to create a sustainable Labor Force was the easiest path out of this but we chose the path of Greed instead. Now Boomers can live in fear to there dying days.

    Elon Musk: ” The Elderly dont change. They just die. “. ( Yes, very sad, but who am I to argue with the facts. )

    • MathiasMEMBER

      At some point, Australia is going to be in a state of National Emergency.

      Governments will be forced to step in and intervene otherwise people are just going to outright die.

      Young, Old, Man, Woman… everyone will be screwed. At least having people on the Welfare System means you at least know who they are. As it stands, Governments trying to play hard ball which spectacularly backfires as people simply drop off the system. Give it a year or two and our current welfare system will be migrating towards a Jobs Guarantee or a UBI from all the social disasters. If the government doesnt, Australias Media will be covering up deaths ( which wouldnt surprise me… our media are a pack of liars as it is ).

      Governments will have to start enforcing Job Guarantees and start employing people under the Public Sector so they can put food on the table or they’ll be facing a death wave. Governments will have to try and salvage what little there is left of this Nation that hasnt already died or been completely destroyed.

      There are going to be so many frickin’ social problems in this country that without Government Intervention, people will probably just die.

      Australia will end up like japan.

      Japan – Hikomori ( Men pulling out of society because no motivation and easier to just live alone ) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFgWy2ifX5s
      Japan – Dying Alone ( Marriages will collapse into singles societys. Will Australia have a need for singles housing and ‘at home’ services & care in the future? I think so ) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SORthIsoLP0
      Japan – Loneliness Pandemic ( Translation: No future hope… young suicides at a time when our Labor Force is already screwed… and suicides are happening at alarming rates in japan today ) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBRm18jIsVE
      Japan facing an alarming rate of Female Suicides ( Woman wont be saved ) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kK9dpazrMY

      If the government had any brains, it would look into this future and start planning for it now.

  13. Here’s how it goes

    Yes RBA is in control of house prices

    So they will raise cash rate to limit decline in house prices to 15-20%. Beyond that it’s game over, so anyone thinking they’ll let things get beyond that is out of their mind.

    But they won’t be able to control inflation.

    So the govt will run handouts, subsidies and tax cuts, to help with the “cost of living pressure”

    The inflation will hurt the economy, but the only way to survive without crushing housing completely will be to make do with higher inflation which will be funded by higher govt debt

    What happens after that is pure guess work

    • > So the govt will run handouts, subsidies and tax cuts, to help with the “cost of living pressure”

      That only helps people who are on the system.

      What about all the people who arent on the system?

    • True, but at that juncture, you can forget serviceability for any new borrowers for a million dollar loan at those high IRs so house prices for any new customers..
      Where did it suddenly just go wrong so badly. Those numbers looked good going up.

    • In a West End town, a dead end world
      The East End boys and West End girls
      In a West End town, in a dead end world
      The East End boys and West End girls
      West End girls

  14. reusachtigeMEMBER

    So Steve Keen sold his place just as this extreme super massive ribald boom took off. LOLOLOLOL! What a looseer. Did youse listen to that absolute idiot?

    • do you follow Fred Harrison and Phillip Anderson “secret life of real estate and banking”. if so do you agree with their 18 year land cycle, and also that land will crash in 2026. if you could give serious answer that would be appreciated

        • lol. oh well, I did try
          do you read fat wolverine stuff, or is that you. I thought you and Steve keen were mates

          • TRADINGtheAPOCALYPSE

            Fat wolverine shall forever remain immortal in the annals of property bull history for creating the great and glorious hedonic index that only goes up, and which you can just turn off if it looks be going down 😊

          • so I take it that r eusa is j oye re h hedonic index comment
            moderation problems so hence the format

          • @tetama fat wolverine’s and @Peachy’s views seemed to be eerily concordant but no link was ever proven.

          • to John R
            Always thought peach y was a high profile accountant, who had good accounting skills but lacked some more nuanced tax skills (just my perception based on some of peach comments). but a big hitter in the industry they work in. given some of the comments from peach I won’t disclose exactly who I think as it would be inappropriate. but think this person may live around near where I am, so perhaps one day run into that person and ask directly. now that peach y nows runs seperate website, as I understand it, would perhaps point to r Eusa and peach being different ppl, or perhaps not

      • I’m on board with Phil Anderson’s thesis and time frame. Was sceptical when I first came across him at a Prosper event circa 2011? So far, proven correct.

        • reckon we were probably at same event in punch lane. Bryan kavanagh and others said Anderson wrong and he stood ground and proven correct. he said 2026 was the big crash. did we meet. is your dad a mathematician

        • Aaron
          The more important question is whether you have come across anything that you think perhaps debunks Andersons (and Fred Harrison) views., or at least makes you circumspect about 2026 crash. Are you a subscriber to Anderson’s membership. If you think I am asking too many personal questions that is not my intent. I am not interested in you per se. I just struggle with the 2026 stuff from Anderson and Harrison. it just seems too easy. wait 18 years and thats it. surely the efficient market hypothesis would have discerned this long ago and everyone would be in on it. so really more interested in stuff Anderson and Harrison have said the has never come to pass, or that makes you nervous about their future guesses

  15. According to jobs.gov.au , job advertisements per state:

    NSW 244,413
    VIC 208,282
    WA 141,797
    QA 65,463
    SA 18,280
    ACT 8,304
    NT 3,351

    Those numbers have exploded. Usually, NSW, VIC and QLD are the top three states with job advertisements. I love how QLD is way down the list with only 66,463 jobs needing placements… after the massive wave of NSW/VIC migration into QLD.

    NSW and VIC are so Fk’d… and these are just the early stages rofl. This is so exciting.

    • What jobs across Australia are highest in demand? ( According to jobs.gov.au )

      Trades & Services 154,327
      Admin / Office / Reception 76,073
      Manufacturing 54,554
      Information Tech 46,821
      Transport Logistic 43,740
      Health & Medical 34,976
      Construction 34,274
      Hospitality 22,375
      Communication, Arts, Media 22,182
      Customer Service 18,652
      Community Services 17,722
      Agriculture, Animals 17,717
      Human Resources 16,624
      Executive & Managers 12,074
      Mining Energy 11,883
      Real Estate 11,632
      Retail 11,615
      Engineering 9,567
      Insurance & Super 4,148
      Sport & Recreation 3,001
      Defence & Protection 2,584
      Banking Finance 2,399
      Sales 2,355
      Architecture 1,451
      Science 1,341
      Legal 1,297

      So many jobs. So few people care ;p Funniest thing I’ve ever seen. What comes next? Authoritarianism? rofl. Bring out the riot police… that’ll fix it. Bahahahahaha.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      That’s actually quite a lot of jobs in WA for its size. After our greatest city, Sydney, Perth would be ok I reckon. Not Melbourne (miserably dull) or Brisbane (stinkn dull) of course.

  16. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Looking forward to sailing up to Sydney to meet Harry, in a boat acquired as a distressed sale.

    Looks like there will be quite a few on the market. (And caravans, and jet skis, and alfresco dinning suites, and pizza ovens, and blinged Toranas, and… Mum’s Taxi station wagons… and… and… and…)

    • Australia ain’t prepared for sh*t. Governments in this country don’t do things like that.
      Look at the f*kwits in power the last 9 years. With Mal as a minor exception they only cared about looting the joint.