The 2022-2023 Victorian Budget has been released which tips an $2.0 billion drop in the state’s stamp duty receipts in 2022-23 off a predicted 4% decline in property values over the 2023 calendar year:
Revenue from land transfer duty is expected to increase to $10.2 billion in 2021-22, consistent with strong residential dwelling price growth across 2021 and elevated transaction volumes. This represents a significant improvement since the 2021-22 Budget Update. Land transfer duty revenue is forecast to decline to $8.2 billion in 2022-23, in line with a forecast moderation in residential property market activity. Land transfer duty revenue is then expected to grow by an average of 2.0 per cent a year over the forward estimates…
The 2022-23 Budget anticipates a decline in Victorian dwelling prices of 4.0 per cent over the 2023 calendar year after significant growth in 2021-22, reflecting in-part anticipated rises in the RBA cash rate commencing around mid-2022, in line with market expectations. This price decline is expected to be concentrated in the high-value segment of the market, which is accounting for an elevated share of land transfer duty revenue in 2021-22. Transaction volumes are also forecast to decline in year-on-year terms from the March quarter of 2022 until 2024. Both price and transaction volume movements pose as risks for property-based tax collections…
