Sydney’s sick auction market a harbinger for house price falls

Advertisement

CoreLogic has released its final auction results for last weekend with the nation’s clearance rate falling to 60.1% – the lowest level since August 2021.

The decline in the nation’s clearance rate was driven by Sydney, which fell to only 53.8% – the lowest reading in more than two years.

National auction results

According to CoreLogic:

Advertisement

The busiest auction week since the pre-Easter seasonal spike, 2,879 homes were auctioned across the combined capitals last week, up 39.8% from the 2,059 auctions held the week prior. With 60.1% of auctions held returning a successful result, last week’s clearance rate is the lowest capital city clearance rate recorded since late August 2021…

Sydney’s clearance rate continued to fall last week, down 1.4 percentage points to 53.8% – Sydney’s lowest clearance rate since Late April 2020 amid the first COVID outbreak… The previous week saw 55.3% of auctions return a successful result while this time last year 78.9% of auctions held were successful.

Sydney’s auction clearance rate has historically been a good leading indicator of price growth, as illustrated clearly in the next chart:

Sydney auction clearances versus prices

Therefore, the sharp decline in Sydney’s auction clearance rate signals for falls for house prices.

Advertisement
About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.