So says BofA. I agree. The ‘Fed put’ is now the ‘Fed call’ unless or until inflation is brought under control. As Chair Powel has said, that only happens by him downsizing demand to fit with limited supply. That means a Us demand hiccup is inevitable, which will immediately spill over to Europe and China where domestic demand is already on its knees owing to war, energy, property and OMICRON shocks.
I am still skeptical of the structural persistence of inflation and the commodity supercycle notion though acknowledge Ukraine means it will take longer for supply-side adjustments.
At this stage that is immaterial. The Fed is going to break everything, including commodities.