Phew! Opinion polls got it right this time around

Monday 23 May 2022

Sydney University polling expert Professor Simon Jackman says the performance of pollsters has been “pretty good” in 2022, after getting the outcome of the 2019 federal election wrong.

All major national published polls correctly predicted a Labor victory, and their two-party preferred projections were close to the actual voting patterns.

Labor has received around 52% of votes on a two-party preferred basis with around 71% of the votes counted, compared with the Coalition’s 48%:

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.