Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are seeing quite a bit of selling going into the closing sessions as risk taking reverses course yet again, this time on increased concern that both the Fed and ECB are going to hold the line on interest rate rises with Lagarde commenting as such this afternoon. Currency markets are seeing a big surge in Euro in response, while other undollars are pulling back against USD, particularly the Australian dollar which can’t seem to climb above the 71 cent level. Oil prices are stabilising with Brent crude now hovering just above the $112USD per barrel level while gold is trying to build on its recent gains, currently lifting at the $1856USD per ounce level:

Mainland Chinese share markets started poorly and accelerated the selloff into the close with the Shanghai Composite losing more than 2.3% to finish at 3070 points while the Hang Seng Index has similiarly inverted, down 2% at 20063 points. Japanese stock markets caught up with the selling as the Nikkei 225 index lost nearly 1% to close at 26748 points while the USDJPY pair has rolled over again, almost matching its previous weekly low, currently at the mid 127 level as Yen defensive buying has not yet abated:

Australian stocks were the best in the region, relatively speaking, with the ASX200 finishing only 0.3% lower at 7128 points, keeping the key 7100 point support level intact for now. Meanwhile the Australian dollar has consolidated below the 71 handle after finding significant resistance at that level overnight, but four hourly momentum remains positive for now:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are down more than 0.5% as we head into the European open with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price unable to breach the key 4000 point level as this swing trade loses steam and possibly inverts:

The economic calendar includes a slew of flash manufacturing PMI surveys for Europe and the US to closely watch.

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Comments

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        It’s a bit weird to be sworn in before a parliament majority, Labor might not win the majority confidence

        • Albo already has confirmation from the reelected independents on supply, and confidence

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            And if he didn’t have it from them, he’d get it from the Greens who are now up to 3 seats.

        • Only Labor have enough seats to form government with the cross bench. Even if they hadn’t already been guaranteed supply, LNP would not be able to form government with only 56 seats (56+15 =71).

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Let’s hope not. The country is already going to sh1t since Albo started prancing around. Let’s hope the Teals get control. At least they have a bit of the right colour in their mix!

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      ABC have the ALP at 74. In Brisbane, 34 votes separating the ALP and the Green : whoever comes out ahead will win the seat. Of the remaining seats, Gilmore and Deakin looks to fall to the LNP , Macnamara looks to go to the ALP, and Lyon which ALP is leading. So 76 to 77.

  1. Camden HavenMEMBER

    The grand (counter) strategy to crush Chinese hundred year marathon rise to primacy is moving along nicely.

  2. Stephen Morris

    For anyone interested in Belief Perseverance, may I recommend watching Sky News. https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion

    Sky’s commentators are manifesting all the behaviours typical of people who have suffered a brutal disconfirmation of belief. Specifically, they are claiming that the Liberal Party must become even more “conservative” (by their definition).

    This is not unlike the well-documented phenomenon of “loss aversion”. As Allais, Kahneman and others observed, individuals faced with a choice between a certain loss and an increasingly unlikely chance of recovering from that loss will become ever more risk-accepting. They will gamble recklessly rather than accept the fact of their loss. They seek to avoid immediate pain by risking even more pain in the future.

    In the case of the Sky commentators, rather than accepting that most Australians found the Coalition to be too extreme, they’re gambling recklessly on the idea that the weren’t extreme enough.

    In due course, as this strategy fails, we may expect to see other rationalisations appear. They may, for example, begin to argue that “ordinary” people are too stupid to know what’s good for them and that they must be forced into making the “correct” decisions.

    They will also take any difficulties faced by the incoming government as “proof” that their original strategies were correct.

    p.s. This is not a comment on the election result. It’s a comment on psychology.

    • That’s the same as pulling on an opening door when someone is pushing on it. Hope they don’t fall over.

    • The Sky is advising against drinking the tap water: the ALP and Green commies have laced it with flouride.
      The LNP faithfuls need to preserve the purity of their bodily fluids at all cost.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        They really do carry a hysterical tone whenever talking about Labor. There is no equivalent Extreme bias levelled against the LNP by anyone in the mainstream press.
        The way they rattle on about young people who haven’t experienced a Labor Government since they were watching “Dora the explorer” as children is fken pathetic.
        Implying everyone’s lives were so dramatically different under a Labor Government!
        They weren’t!,…this is just straight up lies! Lies delivered with such emotional and passionate conviction all in an sycophantic act to impress the Boss.
        Pathetic!,…And yet The Boomer ignoramuses/LN voters lap it all up like they are hearing a revelation.
        🤮

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          The Sky After Dark (aka SAD) crew must be paid absolute mega bucks to peddle their rubbish?

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          Worth noting, however, is that this strategy is wildly successful. LOTS of punters will faithfully repeat their claims – or the no less false but somewhat less wackadoo ones in the more mainstream Murdoch press – as fact.

          I know plenty of otherwise sensible and intelligent people who repeat the Murdoch representation of Labor (and even more so the Greens) with complete conviction.

          • ”Worth noting, however, is that this strategy is wildly successful. LOTS of punters will faithfully repeat their claims …”
            I think a key issue relates to anchoring and adjustment. Creating that early impression is critical as once people arrive at a judgement on it, cognitive dissonance etc make changing their views all that much harder. This is where the propaganda architecture becomes truly worrying. You need only look at the plight of the boat people to see that.

        • Dora the Explorer didn’t exist the last time a real Labor government was in power.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Are the Sky after Dark crew experiencing yet the 5 stages of grieving for the death of their LNP?

      • They’ll be stuck in stage 1 for a while. They’re still stuck there in the US.

    • Exactly right. The Spectator is the same with flawed analysis and petty allegations about the electorate. On this basis they will be out of power for ten years at least.

    • Thats already started
      Jane Hume said the LNP does reflect Australian values it’s just voters don’t know it

    • Well, that would be great. The more extreme right loony they become the less electable they will be, which is what all normal people want.

      Having Dutto as the new leader is certainly going to push them in this direction.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        What if he came out with policy of 0 NOM and suddenly shot to 5% above ALP 2PP.

        Anyway that’s my dream and they can reverse auction it.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      there’s a lot of that going around. Is it contagious ? Is it contagious digitally ? Could we be looking at the digital version of monkey pox, that is some how afflicting so called conservatives (not that there’s anything wrong with that) on the interwebs ?

    • Welcome back Stephen. I have been wonder where you disappeared to. Have you bumped into “Clive” recently too?

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      Too much pïss before the game.. but still digging for more info as that’s the msm story
      AFL crowds used to sneer at the soccer fans that they are badly behaving…well pot called the kettle..chortle

      • You clearly don’t understand…if it’s sokkah then it’s violent hooligans; if it’s AFL then it’s just high-spirited boys being boys.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Society?

      Apparently that one game is always a bit manky, although it wasn’t when it was held interstate during lockdowns.

      Just two feral lots of supporters I suppose, much like the days of travelling to Bashup Park to see the mighty Valley Diehards take on the home side, the Norths Devils. Good times…

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      They would be idiots if they do another captain pick…
      Between ScoMo’s captain pick of Deves and
      Albo’s KK ….shows they are useless in picking..
      Won’t trust them to pick fruit and veggies for me

      • There’s a bit more to it in Labor’s case. Factional deals saw KK demoted to unwinnable position on the Senate ticket, she’s very capable and rather than lose her from Parliament a HR seat was needed. Contrast KK’s loss with Charlton’s win and it’s very unfortunate.

        • Ronin8317MEMBER

          Charlton would have gone the same way as KK if anyone with an Indian surname was on the ballot. The informal votes is greater than the winning margin!!

          • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

            But the winner wasn’t Australian of Indian origin, was it??? Thank you fir the factoid though !
            I love factoids

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Parramatta didn’t have a popular and local high profile candidate like Fowler did.
            KK displaced Vietnamese Australian Tu Le the already anointed Labor pick who had widespread local grass roots support. It was a stupid call that the LNP and mass media Loudly And relentlessly denounced.
            There was no Such similar candidate in Parramatta being shoved aside for Andrew Charlton and I suspect The “ethnic” demographic in Parramatta is more aspirational and thus impressed with Andrew Charltons self-made 0.1%er status,…he just purchased a 16 million dollar house in bellevue Hill don’tcha know. That’s something nearly every Parramatta resident would like to do to escape living in Parra!
            Where as KK displaced a local working class girl and is someone none of them in Fowler would ever aspire to being.
            Tu Le would not have lost this safe Labor seat.
            It was just a fken dumb move.

            Note,…I read somewhere that KK had already agreed to remove herself from the fray after Bill Shorten became PM last election in some kinda agreed upon factional deal where she would score herself an Ambassadorship to the UK or US for Removing herself from the candidate selection process.

            So nothing to see here except for Fken sh!tbag Factional/Sussex St machinations

  3. Here is the accident waiting to happen……..about when CCC credits go from the present 450 above Treasuries to 1000 points above

    https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/05/23/rrp-use-hits-2t-sofr-like-t-bills-below-rrp-rate-what-is-really-going-on/

    Carnival, who could put out paper at 5.5-6% last year are being offered 10.5-11% this year…..these are hard money rates……..lot of people in trouble if we are going to hard money rates. Of course the question is will they go back to the zero bound if it all blows up……not so sure this time.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      They are tightly held and what ever move they do , there are major consequences

      • DingwallMEMBER

        Me too… i wonder how many “clients” even read that. It doesn’t even seem coherent but I sure all the financial brainiacs can decipher the code.

    • PalimpsestMEMBER

      Wow, thanks for sharing that … I think. I really don’t like what that might mean.

    • Choice between assets being harshly repriced or the unwashed masses seeing their savings disappear and living standards erode further. I think it’s a given we’re going back to zero because as a very wise man said “never get between a Boomer and someone else’s money”

      • Yep, as much as I’d like to see asset prices reset. They won’t allow it. So the fiat will get it in the neck. Wait till you see the price of BitCoin then!

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Stock Swami is a Twitter dude who likes to point out some of the dodgy behaviour going on behind the scenes in ASX Land. Insider trading, dodgy funding etc. One of those citizen journalists types.

        He’s being sued for defamation by a colourful mining investor. Now Swami has got the law firm that defended Kristo. The bad guy has the girl who represented Barilaro and Porter and lost badly.

        Grudge match!

        I’ll add that hopefully it’s another case that drives a nail in Australia’s stupid defamation laws.

        • haroldusMEMBER

          Thanks! I can’t really use tweeter as I refuse to join and I get a popup telling me to join after I scroll down on any tweeters.

          • Use Duck Duck Go or on Chrome, there’s a little i button in the top right under the vertical … menu where you can delete cookies which will stop the popup for a few loadings.
            Or don’t, and use the extra time how you please 🙂

          • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

            Same! Fùķ twitter and it’s past curent and future owners !

          • I’m in the same boat, got a lazy work around – when the pop comes I just hit log in and then press back from login page and it lets me browse without the pop up. Gtta do it each new twatter link you follow.

  4. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    Tested positive for teh Covid today, medium level cold symptoms so far. Read the symptoms are so similar to the current influenza going around you cannot tell them apart without a test

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Yea I tested positive Friday night … same symptoms although the sore throat level is impressive

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I’m up to six negative tests now and I’m starting to go downhill again. Everyone else in the house has it…I feel oddly disappointed and somewhat a failure.

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        Ya gotta stick that swab right up till it hurts to get a positive I’ve found

      • Same as you MB, I haven’t tested positive. Mrs has been sick all week and started to feel a bit worse again tonight. I’m sure it’s Covid but her PCR came back negative also. Who knows? Feels just like a cold with sore throat some congestion and mucus etc.. I’m feeling better than last few days.

    • All Muslims should be able to kill anybody who has offended them. In fact, a lot of them actually do.

    • DodgydamoMEMBER

      “The court previously heard the alleged victim had an arranged marriage to her cousin at the age of 17 but she had started a relationship with a man of a different faith and the alleged crime could appropriately be described as “an attempted honour killing”.
      Why the fvck importing medieval attitudes like this is considered positive cultural enrichment of Australia by anyone is absolutely beyond my comprehension.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        I think you’re all failing to see the working class dimensions of this case.
        Clearly they needed her to marry her cousin so as to keep her dowry within the family and She earned pretty good money from her part time job to.
        Of course they couldn’t allow all that money to go to an infidel family!
        Get woke bro

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      It shows you how resilient our housing market! It sky rockets more even with intrest rates go up
      Those Canadians need to send a team to copy what we do here