Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Yet another bounceback with Asian share markets green across the board today to finish the trading week still unsettled. Currency markets are also clawing back more ground against USD as the Australian dollar firms above the 70 level. Oil prices are stabilising with Brent crude now hovering just above the $111USD per barrel level while gold is holding on to its one session gain, currently at the $1845USD per ounce level. Meanwhile Bitcoin looks like rolling over again, barely hanging on just above the $30K level, ready to break below key monthly support again:

Mainland Chinese share markets are doing well with the Shanghai Composite currently up 1.4% to 3140 points while the Hang Seng Index has taken back most of its previous losses, up 2% at 20535 points. Japanese stock markets are not losing out either, with the Nikkei 225 index about to close nearly 1.4% higher at 26744 points while the USDJPY pair has not moved since last night, currently just below the 128 level as Yen defensive buying has not yet abated:

Australian stocks are firming again with the ASX200 about to finish 1% or so higher, currently at 7140 points, keeping the 7000 point level intact for now. Meanwhile the Australian dollar has wobbled a little throughout the session but still holding well above the 70 level and ready to put in a new weekly high:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are up very modestly% as we head into the European open with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price still anchored well below the 4000 point level although a swing trade is possibly brewing here as momentum inverts:

The economic calendar finishes the week with UK retail sales and not much else.

Oh and I’ll be manning the BBQ at our local school making “democracy sausages” while I watch the conga line of voters hopefully throw the LNP out.

 

Comments

  1. I am now senile and as impotent as the LNP model for the Federal Corruption Commission, but if I were you I would borrow as much as the Bank allowed and make a generous offer to secure your dream place. It doesn’t matter what you pay today, it won’t make a difference in a decade or two.

    • Grand Funk RailroadMEMBER

      They had fortified themselves in to fight to the end in Mariupol. My current (and has been for some time) understanding is that the positions in front of Donetsk are essentially the same. I think there will be a trade for them, but there will be a price

    • RomulusMEMBER

      Yep unfortunate but these things happen in war. Plenty of these instances in WW2 where the allies had losses in battle and were not able to save everyone but it enabled them to win the war.

      They were able to buy Ukraine months in this invasion and kept troops from other battles. Without Mariapol tying up Tussian troops, Kharkiv would have probably been overrun. It’s up to the Russians how they now treat these POWs but given their behaviour so far it’s likely they will face death. Further hardening the Ukrainians and the rest of the world’s resolve to defeat Putin.

      If actions Mariapol means that Ukriane ends up in a few months pushing Russia out of Ukraine it was probably worth it from Zelinskys perspective.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        When Putin gave them the ultimatum to ‘surrender or else’, that’s when Kyiv should have told them to surrender. What happens next will not be pretty, especially after the ‘show trial’ of the captured Russian soldier.

        Once a war starts, lives becomes cheap.

        • RomulusMEMBER

          Like it would have made one iota of difference surrendering earlier. They were Nazis to Putin a few weeks ago, same as now. There is no way in hell Putin would have spared Azov/anyone in Mariapol. That was one of his main reason for invading – Denazification.

    • What are you two above smoking – ???? – what do you think the Fascists were doing around there since 2014, not to mention holding various high level government positions and all with the help of Noonan and the neo cons to the tune of 9 billion+.

      Prisoners of war or POWs and being processed as such, will trade for Russian POWs as is normal, except not the Fascists, will be a court room for that action.

      • pfh007.comMEMBER

        “..what do you think the Fascists were doing ..”

        You have been smoking too much of that NC weed. The western apologist industry for Putin (aka known as tankies) are having to work very hard explaining how all those Ukrainian residential apartment blocks, hospitals, schools, businesses, shop centres shelled by the Russians are ‘nazi’ hotspots.

        Especially when Putin has been apoligising to Israel for the comments of his own foreign minister who seems to think the tribe is behind everything including Adolf.

        The only ones behaving like some extras from a WW2 movie are the ones fabricating “Sudentland” type claims to justify an invasion.

        https://www.historians.in.ua/index.php/en/dyskusiya/1597-hiroaki-kuromiya-the-enigma-of-the-donbas-how-to-understand-its-past-and-future

        But please do tell us yet again how much the USA is far worse than the Russians.

        A bit of pre-election bush rodent whataboutism is just what the doctor ordered.

        And a side salad of how this is all NATO’s fault because they gave Putin no choice.

        • You really are a total wing nut pft, especially the kool aid bit about NC. So besides being a low level BS operator it also seems your a neo con new American Century sort along the lines of Samantha Powell and the R2P guise used to subjugate and then loot other countries for a “War is a Racket” payday.

          Its just so obvious pft … the whole beautification of Fascists in the Ukraine, just like the Taliban was as Freedom Fighters back in that day …. how did that all work out lmmao … and Trillions that could have been spent at home on education, health, infrastructure, et al. Now you’ve got kids like the buffalo shooter getting pro tips from these extreme right wing mobs, just like ISIS was a result of neocon/conservative machinations over a long period of funding radicalization of the youth in those regions.

          • Let what go – ????

            Pointing out easily referenced and fact check historical/geopolitical actions contra the propaganda used to screw peoples heads on backwards is somehow not letting go – ????

            Then people like him make it a comparison about fighting for the light[tm] vs the dark … here I was thinking gaslighting and agnotology was the pitch black dark ….

          • They are just not informed. Probably different wired too, therefore, don’t stress about that.

      • I didn’t read that as skip taking a position. which he never really does. tbf.

        • A position – ?????

          What like some are want after having their heads filled with BS funded by some wealthy ideologues looking out for self interests in perpetuity kinda position. Its not like I’ve pointed out since day one that I support a pluralist or duelist framework with a social democratic state administration, something IMO that has been done before with historical precedent and quite successful for social uplift and cohesion. Until the reinvigorated Capital post WWII thought society was going full socialist/communism after inhaling too much Hayek/Lippmann novels and went on a blinkered thunkit bender …. we now have as neoliberalism.

          That’s not to mention my constant reminders about PKE/MMT, but some rather play rhetorical bingo card games for the uniformed in the nose bleed seats.

          On top of all that I have no/zero agency in changing anything – zip – all I do is point out categorical errors, fallacies of composition, and verifiable facts rather than fill peoples heads with concocted narratives out of whole cloth.

  2. Grand Funk RailroadMEMBER

    Ladies and Gentlemen

    I was wondering if anyone would be interested in a mass MB Microsoft teams hookup tomorrow eve from maybe 1830 to 2030 with a view to having the MB cognoscenti getting tanked online to chew over contemporary politics……

  3. DingwallMEMBER

    I am dreading tomorrow just as I have been dreading every year for the last 20.

    The Libs stay in power – we are screwed.
    Labor gets in – we are screwed
    Some sort of hung thing happens – we are screwed
    The Greens win or lose seats – who cares, they do nothing anyway
    The Teal crew win or lose some seats – who?
    Clive looks like an idiot – we all win
    Pauline has Covid – she needs to kiss Scummo

  4. US Congress approves $57 billion aid package to Ukraine

    LMMAO as most will go to MIC in the U.S. to replenish stocks of past use date equipment sent to the Ukraine and some looting for mates …

    • The NYT is out tonight waving the white flag and the WSJ is spruiking a deal with Belarus to let Ukraine wheat through on rail if they let potash through for 6 months. Rouble is going mad. Looks like Russian light troops are breaking out to Soledar but the heavy stuff has to drag the railway behind them.

      https://cont.ws/@voenkorr/2285208

      • I keep reading in the MSM how the russki is fkd, but then I read that they take Mariupol and the Azov plant…?

        • RomulusMEMBER

          Daily updates if you are interested:
          https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1527413652093030434
          Mariupol was a siege – it was always going to be a case of how long the Ukrainians could last. Kharkiv in the NE which was being pounded by artillery – the Ukrainians have pushed back the Russians into their own border. Now the risk for Russians is the Ukrainians attacking the rail lines in Russia threatening their supplies into the Donbas.

          • This think[????] tank – https://www.understandingwar.org/who-we-are

            Our History

            Dr. Kimberly Kagan founded ISW in May 2007, as U.S. forces undertook a daring new counterinsurgency strategy to reverse the grim security situation on the ground in Iraq . Frustrated with the prevailing lack of accurate information documenting developments on the ground in Iraq and the detrimental effect of biased reporting on policymakers, Dr. Kagan established ISW to provide real-time, independent, and open-source analysis of ongoing military operations and insurgent attacks in Iraq. General Jack Keane (U.S. Army, Ret.), the Chairman of ISW’s board, also played a central role in developing the intellectual foundation for this change of strategy in Iraq, and supported the formation of the Institute in 2007.

            Wow total failure since 2007 …. get your head shrunk here lmmao …

            PS. Board members – General David H. Petraeus (US Army, Retired), Member, KKR & Chairman, KKR Global Institute

            Yep war is a racket Inc … chortle …

  5. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Nice summing up for the prosecution ? defence ?
    by Jordies …. that lad would have made an excellent lawyer ……but he is an excellent journalist ( some would say Labor biased ) …… if Albo gets the gig tomorrow…I will watch with great delight if he keeps his same eagle eye on the government . A test of his cred to be sure …
    but one I am sure he will rise to ……

    • First unknown kids hepatitis with rogue adenovirus, now another normally dormant virus running wild ( doubled in UK yesterday ) looks like this bloke may be right with his exhaustion of T cells from repeated Covid infections idea.

      https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1527200430442397697

      Humans with immune systems that can’t co-exist with Covid are being selected out. Oh well, the survivors will get increased wages just like in the Black Death

      • The T Cell issue was brought up early on here at MB WRT either constant vaccinations+ boosters which had zero sterilizing immunity properties, hence still get covid, on top of that open to reinfection over a short timeline to covid, and then influenza or other infections or say illnesses like cancer down the road. E.g. the body does not have an endless supply of T Cells.

        All of which brings into question the initial approaches to the pandemic, its change once rushed non third phase trial vaccines were on offer by Big Pharma Corps, Gaslighting by captured political agencies[CDC] in pushing the return too ****Normal**** and all approaches to mitigation of a epic public health event is left to “Individual Choices” and market place dynamics.

        The best part of which is the approach advanced actually encourages the evolutionary potential of covid too mutate, which IMO is not linear or predictable, so fat tails and black swans are in play.

  6. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Getting bombarded by real estate agents emails at the moment with great opportunities to buy … vague contacts from years ago ……..things must be tightening…….

    • Kevin Bingham, AER, Etc are pretty clear that statistically at least it’s Labor’s

      Or else the polls – all of them going back months and months – would have to be very very very wrong. Statistically broken

      Thanks for your arb tips. I’m on Zoe for a nice return

  7. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Sri Lanka in trouble …Pakistan in trouble
    ……..don’t they both have a good friend with lots of money ?

  8. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Australia … The residential building crisis …

    ‘A very major correction’ under way as building industry faces crisis … Josh Gordon, Jackson Graham, Tawar Razaghi and Elizabeth Redman … The Sydney Morning Herald

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-very-major-correction-under-way-as-building-industry-faces-crisis-20220519-p5amtj.html

    KEY POINTS

    • Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said “a very major correction” is under way in the building sector.

    • ABS figures show nationally, there were about 15,000 dwelling approvals issued in March 2022, down from 23,600 in March 2021.

    • For the first time in the past five years, construction made up the most insolvencies of any sector in Victoria.

    Australia’s construction sector is bracing for a major slump over the next year as builders struggle with surging costs for raw materials, worker shortages, supply chain delays and looming interest rate rises. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Email to spooked Metricon customers reveals extent of collapse worries … Alexis Carey … News com au

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/email-to-spooked-metricon-customers-reveals-extent-of-collapse-worries/news-story/f8ccddfdb104529c54baea4689d618df

    Metricon: The Tip Of The Property Storm Iceberg? … Martin North … Digital Finance Analytics

    https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/metricon-the-tip-of-the-property-storm-iceberg/

    Metricon

    https://www.metricon.com.au/

  9. This should get some peoples attention …

    “MH: The important thing about Russian oil being sold to India is that they’re sold in roubles, they’re no longer in dollars. The entire oil trade is now de-dollarised. It will be in roubles, in Chinese Yuan and in other currencies. But the dollar will be left out. The whole idea of dollar diplomacy, of the dollar’s free ride and monetary imperialism has ended. Everyone thought it would take 10 years for Russia, China and other countries to break away. Yet the United States itself has broken away from the other countries by grabbing the foreign exchange reserves of Afghanistan, Venezuela and now Russia. Nobody is going to trust to transact oil, trade and invest in dollars anymore because the United States can simply grab whatever money they want from countries that don’t agree to turn over their economic surplus to American investors and American traders. The United States has isolated itself. It’s shot itself in the foot.”

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/05/michael-hudson-on-the-ongoing-economic-war.html

    The Chutzpah … it burns ….

      • Its all self inflicted and has its roots in the Vietnam war which them morphed into some self serving paradigm at everyone else cost not in the Club.

        • The Wizz of Ozz

          Join us better to be subugated in to ecnomic slavery then have hole in your head we’re life had been ask harold

          • I’ll take my knowledge and experience over that irrational fear driven perspective, strange how funded ideological tautological missives by Hayek have generational potential, regardless of the reality that constantly refutes it … eh …

          • LMMAO at the dandy Locke that worked for the aristocrats/nobility and defined slavery for them without any notion of force because free will dictated that regardless of having your family or social groups very existence ready to be deported to the after life, the bar was the choice of death before servitude. Hence anyone or group that submitted was making a choice to be a slave willingly ….

  10. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Cheer up …

    … Let’s be grateful and solve real problems (such as the inexcusable and irritating politically created problem of housing un – affordability) …

    “Who Cares If Miami Is Underwater In 100 Years” – HSBC Global AM Head Slams “Nut Job” Climate-Alarmists … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/who-cares-if-miami-underwater-100-years-hsbc-global-head-slams-nut-job-climate-alarmists

    HSBC’s Stuart Kirk tells FT investors need not worry about climate risk … FT Live / Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfNamRmje-s

    Douglas Murray (discussing his new book): Why conservatives will win the war on the West … The Telegraph / Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC4xEuD6B1M

    Steven Pinker (discussing his 2018 book): Enlightenment Now … The Commonwealth Club of California / Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piUqV0xo8us

    • Just can’t get on board with Pavlou, will be completely ineffective at best, maybe another Ricky Muir.

      At worst? Who knows, but more than likely to be a bad outcome than a good one, he’s just an inexperienced kid that’s in way over his head after his 1st battle with TPTB and got some media exposure and now is trying to parlay it into holding office. Will he still care about all his morals/goals/beliefs once he starts getting paid all them sweet public dollars and sneaking hookers into the prayer room?

      SAP got my no.1 Senate spot again, keen to see the senate outcome for them this time vs last time.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Just can’t get on board with Pavlou, will be completely ineffective at best, maybe another Ricky Muir.

        He spends way too much time RWNJ adjacent for my tastes.

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        Wow I would have thought Citizens Party wold be a good choice for ppl here. I went with them except I don’t agree on their China stance. I like the thinking though.