Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets did relatively well all things considering after last night’s crash on Wall Street, with losses in the 1-2% range, but still looking very shakey as the recent bounceback in correlated risk markets is over before it started. Currency markets are seeing more ground lost to USD as the Australian dollar has slipped back below the 70 level on today’s unemployment print. Oil prices are trying to clawback the previous session losses with Brent crude now hovering just above $109USD per barrel while gold is struggling as it remains anchored at the $1800USD per ounce level. Meanwhile Bitcoin looks like rolling over again, barely hanging on just above the $29K level, ready to break below key monthly support again:

Mainland Chinese share markets are doing okay with the Shanghai Composite currently up 0.1% to 3082 points while the Hang Seng Index has gone down swiftly, losing more than 2% to be at  20168 points. Japanese stock markets are also on the downbeat, with the Nikkei 225 index closing nearly 2% lower at 26402 points while the USDJPY pair has put in a very mild bounce, currently just above the mid 128 level after its steep drop overnight on Yen defensive buying:

Australian stocks dropped but not as far as many expected, with the ASX200 finishing some 1.6% lower at 7064 points, keeping the 7000 point level intact for now. Meanwhile the Australian dollar has roundtripped following the numberwang print, retracing back below the 70 level and still unable to put in a new weekly high:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are down about 0.7% as we head into the European open with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price still anchored below the 4000 point level after last nights schmozzle of a walloping, wiping out all of this nascent bounceback on inflation concerns:

The economic calendar lightens up tonight, with US initial jobless claims the only big ticket item to watch.

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  1. “The 20th century has been characterized by three developments of great political importance: The growth of democracy, the growth of corporate power, and the growth of corporate propaganda as a means of protecting corporate power against democracy.”

    Alex Carey, Taking the Risk out of Democracy, 1995 H/T Jesse.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      The tactics of conservatism vary widely by place and time. But the most central feature of conservatism is deference: a psychologically internalized attitude on the part of the common people that the aristocracy are better people than they are. Modern-day liberals often theorize that conservatives use “social issues” as a way to mask economic objectives, but this is almost backward: the true goal of conservatism is to establish an aristocracy, which is a social and psychological condition of inequality. Economic inequality and regressive taxation, while certainly welcomed by the aristocracy, are best understood as a means to their actual goal, which is simply to be aristocrats. More generally, it is crucial to conservatism that the people must literally love the order that dominates them. Of course this notion sounds bizarre to modern ears, but it is perfectly overt in the writings of leading conservative theorists such as Burke. Democracy, for them, is not about the mechanisms of voting and office-holding. In fact conservatives hold a wide variety of opinions about such secondary formal matters. For conservatives, rather, democracy is a psychological condition. People who believe that the aristocracy rightfully dominates society because of its intrinsic superiority are conservatives; democrats, by contrast, believe that they are of equal social worth. Conservatism is the antithesis of democracy. This has been true for thousands of years.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        Conservatism, in its original definition, believes that social change should be steady but cautious and incremental. That has however changed today to a believe that the past is always better than the present. The ‘religious social conservative’ are not that much better than the Taliban.

        Strangely enough, they are also the people who likes to “invest” in crypto.

        • The current rightwingers are reactionaries, not conservatives. The IPA/LNP want to return to the past.

    • Well, what do you know. As I posted in another article, on Thursday afternoon Shorten did just that on ABC Radio Melbourne drive program, no less. He basically said it is collapse in immigration and not anything the coalition did, that is responsible for the drastic drop in unemployment. Until yesterday I was begging to wander the same thing though: why isn’t anyone talking about immigration in this election campaign.

  2. “Why are people so reluctant to believe that sociopaths and narcissists can use the power of the pen to prey on people? Because they are well spoken and organized? We would contend that these are the most dangerous of the emotionally warped with a need to acquire, dominate and control, because they are smarter and more calculating than the impulse murderers, burglars, rapists, thieves, and pedophiles.
    There is a need for economic law and enforcement as there is a need for the less cerebral, hairy knuckled criminal law and enforcement. The notion that people become naturally good, rational and well-adjusted because they are wearing a suit is ludicrous, especially to anyone who has worked with many of those who move in the upper echelons of money and power.

    There will always be those at the extremes who need to ‘take it to the limit,’ with a well stocked foreign retreat in case things get ugly. But for most of us, restoring a sense of justice and order and putting the nation back into some kind of working balance will be high on the priority list, if not for ourselves, then for our families.

    Its been a long time coming, it will be a long time gone. But it has been done before by those who created this nation, and it can be done to restore it again. The sooner we start, the sooner it will be over.

    Jesse, Predator Class, 26 December 2008

  3. The seat by seat markets are moving so quickly now that arbitrages are emerging. At the moment for Hasluck, Sportsbet has LNP 1.25 ALP 3.60 whereas TAB has it 1.50/2.50.

    So $100 on ALP on Sportsbet wins you $260. Whereas $240 on LNP on TAB wins you $120. So you’d be $20 ahead either way (assuming the Greens don’t win).

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      It is the Reusa’s cat / skippy’s cat (they co-parent) forum paradox

      A forum can both be entirely animated by their ceaseless trolling and also entirely dead by their ceaseless trolling, at the same time.

      • cZ0mzqFILC8zoVHqMEMBER

        Something like this perhaps?

        MRS. PEARCE. Mr. Higgins: you’re tempting the girl. It’s not right. She should think of the future.
        HIGGINS. At her age! Nonsense! Time enough to think of the future when you haven’t any future to think of. No, Eliza: do as this lady does: think of other people’s futures; but never think of your own. Think of chocolates, and taxis, and gold, and diamonds.
        LIZA. No: I don’t want no gold and no diamonds. I’m a good girl, I am. [She sits down again, with an attempt at dignity].
        HIGGINS. You shall remain so, Eliza, under the care of Mrs. Pearce. And you shall marry an officer in the Guards, with a beautiful moustache: the son of a marquis, who will disinherit him for marrying you, but will relent when he sees your beauty and goodness—
        PICKERING. Excuse me, Higgins; but I really must interfere. Mrs. Pearce is quite right. If this girl is to put herself in your hands for six months for an experiment in teaching, she must understand thoroughly what she’s doing.
        HIGGINS. How can she? She’s incapable of understanding anything. Besides, do any of us understand what we are doing? If we did, would we ever do it?
        HIGGINS. So you came to rescue her from worse than death, eh?
        DOOLITTLE [appreciatively: relieved at being understood] Just so, Governor. That’s right.
        PICKERING. But why did you bring her luggage if you intended to take her away?
        DOOLITTLE. Have I said a word about taking her away? Have I now?
        HIGGINS [determinedly] You’re going to take her away, double quick. [He crosses to the hearth and rings the bell].
        DOOLITTLE [rising] No, Governor. Don’t say that. I’m not the man to stand in my girl’s light. Here’s a career opening for her, as you might say; and—
        Mrs. Pearce opens the door and awaits orders.
        HIGGINS. Mrs. Pearce: this is Eliza’s father. He has come to take her away. Give her to him. [He goes back to the piano, with an air of washing his hands of the whole affair].
        DOOLITTLE. No. This is a misunderstanding. Listen here—
        MRS. PEARCE. He can’t take her away, Mr. Higgins: how can he? You told me to burn her clothes.
        DOOLITTLE. That’s right. I can’t carry the girl through the streets like a blooming monkey, can I? I put it to you.
        HIGGINS. You have put it to me that you want your daughter. Take your daughter. If she has no clothes go out and buy her some.

      • Naw … just heads going pop after yonks of ideological proselytizing meets reality … a cornucopia … climate, covid, decades of wages and productivity diverging, DeReg, globalization aka free markets, Corporatism = Gresham’s Law, going postal in the USA, neocon MIC misadventures, tis a short list …

        Its like … “The Future is Here Today” but its not evenly distributed point about Jack Pot – Gibson – some get backwards thingy ….

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The age care operators gets more money if they churn, so they’re doing everything they can to make sure their ‘clients’ lose interest in living.

  4. haroldusMEMBER

    On the boat and voted early today at Toronto Amateur Sailing Club.

    Couple of interesting and slightly funny stories from the experience, which I shall regale you with tomorrow, as I cannot be @rsed now.

  5. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Russians appear to be becoming less tolerant of politically created and unnecessary death, destruction and poverty …

    Russia-Ukraine War: Russians begin to turn on President Vladimir Putin … Alexis Carey … News com au / New Zealand Herald

    From the start, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has faced a string of humiliating setbacks – and as the war continues to stall, more and more Russians are turning on their leader.

    In a nation where public defiance of the government is rare, and often results in harsh punishments, thousands of citizens took an unexpected stand against the February 24 invasion in the form of daily anti-war protests.

    From that date until March 13, almost 15,000 were arrested, sparking reports of police brutality and even torture, with the government rolling out widespread censorship measures as a result.

    But rather than be silenced, since then, a growing number of Russians have taken bold stands against the war. … read more via hyperlink above …
    A Moscow Mall May 2020 …

    Shopping in Russia … Peter’s Food Adventures … Youtube

    A Moscow Mall May 2022 …

    Moscow’s Largest Shopping Mall is (partially) Empty During Sanctions … Travelling with Russell … Youtube

    International sanctions take toll on Russian economy | DW News … Youtube

  6. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand …

    Budget 2022: $350 cash payment for 2m Kiwis – just enough for a ticket to Aussie, say Nats …

    Budget 2022: What’s in it for you – $1 billion to tackle cost-of-living crisis – fuel tax freeze, half-price public transport extended; $350 cash payment to 2 million Kiwis … New Zealand Herald