Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are doing relatively well given the continued bounceback on overseas markets overnight, although Chinese shares are unstable again after a big move higher yesterday. Currency markets are pushing back against the very strong USD although the Australian dollar has slipped back down to the 70 level. Oil prices are also retreating slightly with Brent crude now hovering just above $112USD per barrel while gold is struggling as it falls to the $1809USD per ounce level while Bitcoin looks like rolling over again, barely hanging on just below $30K:

Mainland Chinese share markets are struggling despite some encouraging news about lockdowns domestically with the  Shanghai Composite currently down 0.1% to 3092 points while the Hang Seng Index is recovering after a mid session dip, unchanged at 20600 points. Japanese stock markets are doing better, getting out of recovery mode with the Nikkei up nearly 0.7% to 26837 points while the USDJPY pair remains basically unchanged following its small Friday bounce, slipping slightly to just above the 129 handle:

Australian stocks are doing the best in the region with another good session with the ASX200 up nearly 0.9% to 7179 points. Meanwhile the Australian dollar has slipped following the recent wages data print with a return below the 70 level and almost putting in a new weekly high:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are slowly gaining as we head into the European open with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price wanting to extend its gains above the 4000 point level and head towards key resistance at the 4100 area as it regains momentum following the Friday night bounce:

The economic calendar includes UK and Euro core inflation prints then US housing starts.

Comments

  1. Primary RE you say or income streams which make neighborhoods more like hotel grounds … freedom and libertie thingy …

    https://districtmagazine.ie/news/15000-holiday-homes-available-on-airbnb-but-only-851-available-to-rent-nationally/

    Whilst banging on about freedom and liberties thingy … cough [covid/flu/mold] for all those that loved them some Brexit from the commie/socialist clutches of the EU …..

    “the dimensions of a wide-ranging conspiracy managed by a shadowy cabal of hardcore Leavers to sabotage former Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal, remove her from office, replace her with Boris Johnson, and secure a ‘hard’ withdrawal from the EU.

    The emails demonstrate that a group of operatives linked to the intelligence services and wealthy, reclusive pro-Brexit financiers spied on campaign groups, infiltrated the civil service, and targeted high-profile Remainers with reputational destruction. While the majority of British voters elected to assert their independence from the EU, this clique of mostly unknown influence agents sought to subvert the process and manage it according to their own elite interests.

    Among their key objectives was to strengthen the security relationship between London and Washington, thus supplanting EU authority with more substantial US oversight.

    The cabal, which continues to exert insidious, undue influence on British politics, politicians and policy to this day, is composed of wealthy financiers, representatives of the military and defense establishment, and intelligence officials.” – snip

    https://thegrayzone.com/2022/05/15/operation-leaked-emails-intelligence-coup-boris-johnson/

    Old Blighty, the 51st state:

    A government minister has suggested that people struggling with the cost of living should take on more hours or move to a better-paid job.

    https://news.sky.com/story/minister-says-people-should-work-more-hours-or-move-to-a-better-job-to-protect-themselves-from-cost-of-living-surge-12614360

    LMMAO at the mold popping up everywhere ….

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Speaking of sick, second day in a row of close proximity covid spreader. Working in confined space with fully vaxed client who 1st day back from 2 weeks off due to the covie. That’s the 5th case of close contact. After yesterdays episode made sure of good dose of seawater up nose in small surf this morn followed after Bluewater cafe a heap of bcnich remedy.
      Wish me luck, gunna need it.

      • I’ve been in my own batty room of the global hotel California too. Masked up while the Mrs sniffles her way through the week….. So far so good. Hopefully you get a mild case if it comes your way Boom.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Didn’t count my young mate in the close contacts as more time elapsed. Also fully vaxed. If I do get it will let you know how unvaxed fare.
          Hope you don’t catch it, please be extra cautious.

          • If you contract it close to your Vax, you’re in more trouble than if you catch it later on…. (from my Doc). Vs Unvaxxed? Might depend on underlying health….. Judging by my Mrs, viral dosage might be a larger precursor as she’s hardly touched compared to a lot.
            Senator Gerrard Rennick giving the TGA a bit of Cold Steel – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JJDBfX4U-Q – stay tuned – the waiver is a Fizzer! There’s a Conga line of Silks & QC’s lining up for this whole thing now…..

          • I can only repeat what I was told among a fair list of things Dennis. Whether I outsource to my Doc or a media piece where I don’t know their motives, may be more of the question. As for the rest, well I guess we’ll have to stay tuned.

  2. – The Advance-Decline (for the US markets) line remains to be weak. Not a good sign.

  3. They going to have to add more decimal places to Terra soon. If Bitcoin does roll over, as suggested above, will be interesting to see what impact that has. Though if many coins rollover and stay down time may expose more issues.

  4. Discovering pricing power in today’s geopolitical environment, I won’t lie, it’s fun it’s exciting
    I keep asking myself, Am I just experiencing inflation (along with rising inflation expectations) or has something fundamentally changed?
    I get the feeling it’s a bit of both, I know that I’m approaching pricing from a take it or leave it perspective and it’s exciting to see that higher prices can be demanded when the product you’re selling is unique and strong demand exists.
    I’ve never really experienced this sort of business environment before.
    What’s the consensus? has something fundamentally changed? Has the Russian invasion changed the world? has China’s ballsy move in the Solomon’s changed the world?

      • Certainly feels like the earth moved, not sure if it moved for everyone or just for me.

    • It has in my opinion. Aside from the effects of inflation etc & attitude shift re pricing etc. Is the following. The biggest change is Germany is standing up for what they believe in ie democracy, which means the EU is as well. I’m thinking it could be a new European age (assuming Putin doesn’t nuke em all). They now realise unless you have the military muscle you are always vulnerable, so they will become more independent of US. Also not rely on China for so much & create independent supply chains in Europe, maybe Ukraine will be a mini China as it rebuilds & draws closer to the EU?

      The dream though is European style democracy, ie proportional representation, more socially just etc, rather than American flavour expands. So too does European & attitudes on global security. The icing on the cake would be for Russia to also follow (unlikely as it seems) leaving China isolated, unless they also cast out the CCP’s ambitions for a new world order. Thus the Asian century becomes the Eurasian century & we all live happily ever after.😜

      • Yeah I keep in contact with friends in Germany and they’re telling me that something has definitely changed.
        It’s not just a renewed interest in military projects there’s exciting things happening in everything Renewable, it’s real and average people are demanding that this change away from fossil fuels happen. they’re opening their wallets and opening their minds, it’s exciting.
        I recently even considered moving back to Munich myself.

        • Yes, if the leading European countries really go for it, it could really be good for Europe & really spur further development & give them independence & reduce ghg. But there are a lot of moving parts, so who knows.

    • People seem awake to broken JIT supply lines & unknown delays at a minimum…..

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Globalization is over. The world will soon be split into “Us and Them” again, like before the fall of the Berlin wall.

      • Yeah I’m definitely seeing that and customers are saying loud and clear where they want parts sourced and what their expectations are wrt part acquisition scheduling / warehousing.
        Interestingly I think we’re all just beginning to discover the real scope of the recent Chinese / Russian agreement. signed at the winter Olympics. It’s definitely heading in the direction of Cold war style us and them camps for both goods and capital.

        But what really excites me is that skilled differentiated labour has real pricing power, that’s something that I haven’t seen in over 20 years.

    • I ordered solar panels yesterday and put in my rebate application. I basically want to move as much as my lifestyle to renewables. I wanted to do this 2 years ago, but let other expenses get in the way. Feel good about doing this, because if ScoMo wins I’ll be depressed about our lack of climate action for 3 more years.

      • Would love to go off grid … here in Sydney, give the middle finger to the parasitic gas/coal/distributors.

      • I’m thinking similar with Redflow battery as well…. Maybe a bit early, but I’m thinking too late could be anytime.

        • I would like to add a battery also, but that will wait another year or so. Other things around the house need doing also.

      • The problem is that going off-grid really isn’t a very “green” thing to do.
        At today’s prices for Solar panels (rebates and all included) it makes sense to install at least10Kw of panels (if you have the available roof area)
        Any reasonably efficient house should be able to make do with between 10kwh and 15Kwh per day (excluding pools) yet your typical generation from 10kw panel array is over 50Kwh on a cool summers day and about 20Kwh on a typical winters day.
        It’s a lot more generation capability than most houses should have need for but my experience is that once you have that “free” power you always find a way to use it. You also end up needing to keep supplying that amount of power on cloudy days when the PV array is struggling.
        As I said the whole off-grid process is not very green .

        • We use about 20kw/h per day on average so for now it’s just a 6.6kw/h system. The feed in tariff is nothing now, so paying extra for a 10kw/h system had little benefit, except free power for the electricity company to profit from and without a battery I can’t store the excess. I can always add to it later, but figure it will at least save me some money in the short term.

  5. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I have a really warm feeling that good people are going to turn against the authoritarian and godless forced gender conversion Labor party and vote for the freedom loving and God fearing repentant family man Scomo! He’s ace and like us normal people (who love holidays and don’t hold a hose because it’s not our farkn job)!

    • The Liberal Government – Corruption … a 20 minute read from a bullet point list.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJZrw7PhWds

      And that is not the entire list nor what would come out in a federal ICAC …. So I guess having a mystic belief washes all that anti democratic socially corrosive activities whilst looting the Nation a ethical and moral standers squeaky clean …

    • Even Ntflx have decided to warn their employees against their authoritarian and godless forced gender conversion memes- Or work elsewhere. The fake princess got the boot. Florida’s giving Disney a hard eye. What will Albo do?

    • The only circumstances in which I’d like ScoMo to be re-elected is 1 in which global asset bubbles all burst simultaneously and ScoMo has to explain how it’s not his fault that the country is in financial strife.

      • Don’t worry, the self-centered stupids will keep voting for their man through thick and thin!

      • He’s already blaming inflation on global circumstances, the same globalization he baracked for ……… he is the most incompetent politician

      • Yours sound more likely, though I’d love Arty’s, there again one poll mentioned today that there is only a 1% difference.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Resolve poll by those with close connections to the LNP. Pointless.

          Reckon I’ve got 2 WA seats and 1 Qld seat for Labor more hopeful thinking at 50-50, along with 1 independent. Still should give Labor a majority,

          Had time to go through every seat today. Lovey has Wuflu and I’m as sick as a dog but testing negative. Looks like an emergency phone vote. Was at a wedding on Saturday and guests and bridal party are dropping like flies.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Mine is back of Artie’s envelope. Probably too optimistic on the Independents.

          • bolstroodMEMBER

            MB test by swabbing the back of the throat instead of the nose.
            I tested neg using RATs up nose but then tried throat and as the good nurse from NSW Health said “that’s where the infection is.”Am at day 12 and still not feeling totally 100%, although very very much improved.

    • As much as I dislike some aspects of the Greens they actually have some good policies and would like to see them get more then 2 seats.

  6. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Well oil beef hooked!

    Rabobank are putting up interest rates on savings accounts by .25%!

    Are they the first?

  7. ⚡️🇹🇷Bloomberg published Turkey’s demands in exchange for approval of Sweden and Finland joining NATO:

    Declaration by Sweden and Finland of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and its derivatives as terrorist organizations.

    Lifting the arms embargo.

    Re-entry into the F-35 fighter program.

    Approval of a new package of purchases of F-16 fighters.

    Removal of sanctions from the S-400 air defense system.

    🔸According to CNN, Turkey may be excluded from NATO. This is connected with the position of Turkey on the entry of Finland and Sweden into the alliance.
    /#Turkey #NATO/

    • They should replace Turkey with these two, and drop Albania , they kidnap women, according to Taken.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        NATO without Turkey will give Russia complete access to the Black Sea. In terms of geography, Finland d Sweden only matters to.. Finland and Sweden, whereas Turkey is the center of Asia.

        • Yes, Turkey better in than out.
          Can’t see NATO not accepting both their applications though …

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Not as embarrassing as Scummo pouncing on and cuddling a young boy like only a Hillsong preacher can.

  8. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Sri Lanka … just the start …

    … Poor quality governance and public administration have consequences …

    Sri Lanka Default Hints at Trouble Ahead for Developing Nations … Sydney Maki and Amelia Pollard … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-17/sri-lanka-default-hints-at-trouble-ahead-for-developing-nations?srnd=premium-asia

    • Surging costs for food and fuel have sapped nation’s coffers
    • As inflation rages, some emerging markets look vulnerable

    Sri Lanka’s impending default on $12.6 billion of overseas bonds is flashing a warning sign to investors in other developing nations that surging inflation is set to take a painful toll. …

    … “The Sri Lanka default is an ominous sign for emerging markets,” said Guido Chamorro, the co-head of emerging-market hard-currency debt at Pictet Asset Management, which holds Sri Lankan bonds. “We expect the good times to stop. Slowing growth and more difficult funding conditions will increase default risk particularly for frontier countries.” …

    … concluding …

    …“Sri Lanka could be the start of a trend across the frontier and emerging markets where governments experience debt crises — and possibly default on their obligations,” said Brendan McKenna, a strategist at Wells Fargo in New York who says Pakistan and Egypt look particularly vulnerable. “As rates move higher, a lot of the fundamentally weaker countries with dollar-denominated debt may struggle to repay bonds.”

    Sri Lanka faces ‘man-made’ food crisis as farmers stop planting … Zaheena Rasheed and Rathindra Kuruwita … Aljazeera

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/18/a-food-crisis-looms-in-sri-lanka-as-farmers-give-up-on-planting

    Once self-sufficient nation reels from fall-out of ill-conceived shift to organic agriculture, compounded by fuel shortages. … read more via hyperlink above …

    What’s happening in Sri Lanka? | Start Here … Al Jazeera English … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLleZNNOa9s

    … the long sorry history …

    The Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka … Asianometry … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g70ncHcaBiE