Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Asian markets are trying to bounceback with only Chinese bourses doing the heavy lifting as local stocks were put off by the slump in consumer sentiment.  Currency markets remain spooked by a strong USD although the Australian dollar is trying to bounce off the 69 handle while commodity markets including oil are slowly lifting higher, as Brent crude heads back above the $105 level. Gold is also trying to stabilise but looks weak on all the charts, currently at $1843USD per ounce while Bitcoin is oscillating just above the $30K level and on track for a new yearly low:

Mainland Chinese share markets jumped out of the gate  with the Shanghai Composite currently up 1.3% at 3076 points while the Hang Seng Index has advanced further, now up 1.7% to almost get back above the 20000 point level, currently at 19971 points. Japanese stock markets are still treading water with the Nikkei closing 0.2% higher at 26213 points while the USDJPY pair has pulled back to a neutral state, unable to advance but respecting support at the 130 level:

Australian stocks started off poorly but have recovered to finally put in a new daily high with the ASX200 finishing up just 0.2% to 7064 points. Meanwhile the Australian dollar is trying to find a bottom here after making a new monthly low, still below the 70 handle but bouncing off the 69 level for now as momentum inverts:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are seeing a bounce ahead of the European open with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price wanting to stay above the 4000 point level and stave off what looks like a formal bear market with a failed breakout overnight keeping traders on edge:

The economic calendar will be dominated by both German and US inflation prints tonight.

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  1. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Geez the ABC has paraded one grub after another on Telly this arvo touting the LNP line that wage growth is bad and it’s inflationary effects will destroy the country through raising interests rates.
    Not one grubby cnt mentioned that the inflation is happening anyway wage growth or not.
    They are telling our lowest paid workers they need to take a pay cut!
    If you agree with this sentiment your a grubby cnt too.

  2. The Wizz of Ozz

    Looks like skiptord done not understand justice and what happens when 1 encroaches on natives land if you girly boy where put in the same position would you fight or kowvl towl I would rather be dead and fighting the good fight

    • It’s not what you say, it’s how you say it. He could have referred to it like this…

      – And we are also likely to see some negative sideways movement in the housing sector.

      – I’ve more faith in a touring English team lasting four days than housing maintaining its current level.

      – The French subs will be delivered before we again see gains in the housing market.

      – Sell your house and invest in crypto. That market has stronger fundamentals and is more transparent.

      – The MB fund has just invested in a camping supplies outfit as we expect tent cities to be popping up around Australia by the end of the year.

      – I have consulted with bnich and he has told me that the end is nigh. None shall be saved. We have angered the gods with our housing hubris. We can no longer sacrifice the youth. That no longer appeased them. They want our housing and share portfolios. They want them to burn. It shall be a seas of red. Redrum. Redrum.

      The secret is to be subtle about it.

    • The Wizz of Ozz

      How can house prices go down explained this in plane English the only industry in australia is construction or mining and there ant many places free as 0zz houses will hold evenen go up in most liveable areas this is fact not fiction

  3. bubbah buddhaMEMBER

    It astounds me how much faith people have in the almost lowest form of human life aka bankers ( above lawyers and real estate agents of course).
    I havent seen one significant conversation on the integrity of the banks and how much they all loaned to eachother during the boom times to ensure their bottom line looks well and rosey. This was the case with P.I.G.S. in 2008 GFC with a regulator asleep at the wheeland in cahoots with the political classes and property magnates…. but Straya is different of course…yes the RBA gets rightly trashed, they blame APRA n vicaversa, but they dont hold the money hose mate…how much exactly do the big and small banks loan and borrow to n from eachother? Therein lies the Property Ponzi House of Cards foundations

    • Australian banks are really just building societies backed by a govt guarantee on deposits. They wouldn’t have much in the way of loans to each at all.

      • bubbah buddhaMEMBER

        You would be surprised, thats how they extend their loan books n extend the rules from the CB…look we are making this much profit from these chumps cause we have this much in cash for a 1:10(0) ( which we borrowed from our mates down the road “temporarily”) so we have your minimum requirement covered by X date(and transfered,loaned and returned before the due trigger date) …whos done a deep dive on that? RBA …APRA… confidence evaporating?…

  4. Europe looking very green, did China’s national team stop the rot? Well except for Terra, it’s now down 92%! Must have been MB sticking tar boot in this morning. And the Aussie now recovering ground like Ukrainians in NE, over 70c.

  5. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    United States …

    U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics … Consumer Price Index

    LIVE … Inflation, While Still High, Cools Slightly in April: Live Updates … New York Times

    Inflation data shows a modest deceleration, but prices are still climbing at a brisk pace, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures remain strong. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Stocks, Bonds, & Bitcoin Battered As ‘Hot’ CPI Sparks Surge In Rate-Hike Odds … Zerohedge

    Today’s CPI Report Includes A Methodology Change To New Vehicle Prices: Here’s Why It Matters … Zerohedge

  6. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Sri Lanka …

    Sri Lanka crisis: Ex-PM flees to naval base as arson attacks spread … BBC

    Security forces are out in force across Sri Lanka with orders to shoot looters on sight amid continuing protests at the government’s handling of a devastating economic crisis.

    Despite a nationwide curfew, there was a second night of arson attacks.

    Shops near Colombo were torched, as well as a resort owned by former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa’s son.

    The ex-PM is holed up in a naval base after resigning on Monday when fury erupted over fuel and food shortages. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Sri Lanka protesters burn politicians’ homes as country plunges further into chaos … CNN

    Sri Lanka unrest: shoot on sight order issued as troops deployed in Colombo … The Guardian

    How Sri Lanka spiralled into crisis and what happens next … Aljazeera

  7. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    “Sri Lanka protesters burn politicians’ homes as country plunges further into chaos“

    Ya gotta respect Sri Lankans participation in the political process.

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