Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Asian stocks have reacted in kind to the rout on Wall Street overnight with steep losses across the region – except for Japanese stocks. All the major currency pairs continue to lick their wounds after similar retracements overnight with the nearly unstoppable USD likely to strengthen after tonights US unemployment print. Oil markets are pushing higher again with Brent crude now above the $111USD per barrel level while gold is looking very weak here, rolling over again to kiss the $1900USD per ounce level target away as daily momentum flops back into oversold mode:

Mainland Chinese share markets are getting hit hard with the Shanghai Composite currently down more than 2% to 2996 points while the Hang Seng Index is being punished, off by nearly 4% at 20027 points. Japanese stock markets have reopened without much fuss at all as the Nikkei 225 barrels in on a scratch session while the USDJPY pair has lifted higher to almost make a new weekly high, currently at the mid 130 level:

Australian stocks are getting hammered from the overnight rout, with the ASX200 down more than 2.3% going into the close, currently at 7193 points. Meanwhile the Australian dollar has oscillated mildly after its own pullback overnight, still barely hovering above the 71 handle:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are trying vainly not to get dragged down again with the former playing catchup while the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price wanting to return to the start of week low just below the 4100 point level:

The economic calendar will focus squarely on tonight’s May non-farm payrolls aka US unemployment print, just to add to the volatility!

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Comments

  1. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Things I have learned.

    Working class folk don’t like the way the Albotross speaks. But the “Not my job” Labor ad is very popular. VERY popular. They quote it all day.

    Do not cheer on raising rates, and on no account point out it was okay for them to cheer them on the way down.

    Never say you could think of nothing worse than hauling a dirty great big caravan around the country.

    You can swear in the workplace if you’re popular.

  2. Ronin8317MEMBER

    US going to bring back broadcasting in the South Pacific.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-06/us-civil-society-media-asia-pacific-counter-china-influence/101044924

    Maybe the Coalition shouldn’t have closed down broadcasting to the Pacific Islands in the first place? That made bandwidth available for Chinese broadcasting.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-15/pacific-public-broadcasters-concerned-about-chinese-pressure/100833518

    Broadcasting shortwave costs 4 million : that is only 8 staffers for Alan Tudge.

    • dennisMEMBER

      He’s proof that the required HSC mark for journalism must be faaarking low.

      Have NEVER understood his popularity, except maybe for bogans wanting to move up in the world and impress their friends about how sophisticated they are.

  3. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    I think tonight’s comments section will be interesting and plentuful. There is a population of arrogance, stubborness, fear and told you so. A great mix for passionate Macro bulls and bears. So much money shalll be won and lost over the next 12 months – place your bets…….or not. 🙂

    • So much money is won and lost every 12 months… Do you mean the people who usually win will win more – or the people who normally lose will lose more… cause that’s how it works.

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        Did you see the share market the last 48 hours? Kind of expect more of that then huge declines for property as debt unwinding, then govs printing then ultimately it unwinding again.

        • working class hamMEMBER

          Can the RBA continue to raise into a collapse?
          Can’t deny that Australia needs an RE armageddon, but a lot of people will suffer, not just the ones that gambled hard.

          • Goldstandard1MEMBER

            Of course they can’t. But the point is that something breaks either way. They are we are in a corner so it’s down to individuals to adjust. For example I don’t risk my family eating and being happy on being over leveraged and exposed financially. Imagine making 20% the last 2 years but then losing it all next 2 years. Fark that as a way of living. I’ll stay solvent missing short term paper gains.

          • working class hamMEMBER

            If this is the big one, then expect them to throw the kitchen sink at it and try to soften the landing. This election will be more important than any in the last 10 years, probably the next 5 as well. If the LNP win expect the end of the middle class in Aust, corporate interests will be protected at the detriment of all else. The ALP may offer some protection to lower and middle income earners, only time will tell.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      Nothing will happen…look at NZ they’re ahead of us in the rates increasing and all what happened is 4% drop in house prices…( I like to be the devil’s advocate and to paint it black in response to dear JohnR with his choice of beige)
      que music played by Harry paint it black in the background

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        Well I can guarantee you this. PLENTY will happen as govs throw stim and markets move against it. Volitility skyrockets and……. We’ll it’s the opposite of nothing will happen.

        What I find interesting is that many people are on a knifes edge whether owning a house but the bank actually does, or renting and being exposed to that situation.

        I think the key at the moment is not to owe too much money to anyone, which is the opposite to the commentary of 12 months ago which was to max out. Those who resisted will be ok in the medium to long term.

        Good luck to all.

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        Was it Bnich days or later? Wasn’t it like a 30% fall from the 36000? Cannot remember detail but looks like a very good book at the mo.

    • dennisMEMBER

      Clive is a m0r0n and so is his Squadron Leader and the navy “source” who said Cape Preston could support and sustain large scale naval operations in the Indian Ocean is an !d!ot. If it can then any area up there could.

      The “port” is a pier for loading barges that then go out to the bulk carriers to off load their ore. 16 mtpa….lolololol. The airport is a 2000m runway that could take a B737, just as any of the runways up there could. Why would you need YCPR when YPKA is only 115 km away, or you could just parachute troops into Learmonth, take the airport and fly in to a RAAF base, oh forget the paratroops as the base is mostly deserted.

      These clowns are an embarrassment. Imagine we (Australia) relied on clowns like this to “protect” us. Funny, but very, very sad

      • Yeah. Learmonth is a ready made easy take. As far as I understand (from a FIFO) they have their own private military grade one among the Pilbara mines to protect their interests….. Clive could speed dial his western fellow uber rich mining buddies about that – but that wouldn’t just scare everyone into asking the Libs to save us – we’d be asking why there was one allowed to be built within our borders without a murmur from our “protectors”. Clive wouldn’t want that to interfere with his mates agenda’s.

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