Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Asian stocks have reacted in mixed fashion today to the overnight moves on Wall Street following the Fed’s highly expected 50 point rise in interest rates. There has been some minor retracement of the major currencies which all reversed their downward course against the nearly unstoppable USD, while oil markets are pushing higher again with Brent crude now above the $110USD per barrel level price while gold is finally gaining traction after being a laggard overnight, about to threaten the $1900USD per ounce level, as daily momentum turns up into a possible swing trade:

Mainland Chinese share markets finally reopened after a big break with the Shanghai Composite playing catchup, currently up 0.7% to 3068 points while the Hang Seng Index is trying to regain its previous losses, up nearly 0.5% at 20957 points. Japanese stock markets are still closed for yet another holiday while the USDJPY pair is trying to clawback its whomping from overnight, currently at the 129.30 level:

Australian stocks did very well, considering a much higher Australian dollar with the ASX200 closing just over 0.8% higher to finish at 7364 points. Meanwhile the Australian dollar has retraced ever so slightly from its stonking breakout overnight, still holding above the 72 handle despite what looks like a growing gulf in the interest rate differential between the RBA and the Fed:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are lifting higher with the former playing catchup while the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price wanting to complete this inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern with the potential to breakout above the previous weekly high at the 4300 point level:

The economic calendar now has the BOE meeting to contend with later tonight, then we get US initial weekly jobless claims.

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Comments

  1. alwaysanonMEMBER

    Hey Niko – I was moving some money around and remembered some posts from you the last few months re: some speculative mining stocks you like. So on a whim I bought a bit of ALK, AZY, ICG, POD and SVY today.

    Fingers crossed!

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      His efforts in this area have for some time now, been totally dedicated to praying for his self-preservation – there’s no time for the previous pretence of occasionally praying for others..

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      And thank you covid… that virus had so many silver linings…cutting immigration and closing borders, lifting demand that caused increased interest rates and what you just shared!

    • I suppose – we could only hope that Uncle Xi might actually implement an Federa-ICAC-as-a-service for us and get it going.

      Here’s to hoping!

    • “From the logic of game theory, developed in the paranoid world of mathematical-military think tanks in the Cold War, which became the economists’ paradigm of rational choice; to the emergence of ‘free riding’ – cooperation as irrational, because if you do it, no one else will – and the incentivising social engineering of Nudge, Aldred reveals the extraordinary hold of economics on our morals and values.” – Licence to Be Bad How Economics Corrupted Us by Jonathan Aldred

      Cough … how many years have I been pointing it all out gav …

        • To be precise I was saying the same stuff to china bob, mig, lord dud, and that cast of clowns years ago and broken down to it base with links to back it all up. Lmmao search me talking about Von Newman, Nash [pre-diagnosis], McNamara, GT starting with WWII and how that then established a demand pull of its own into economics. All the discussions about the symbolism of numbers being based on ex nihilo axioms and synthetic a priori that most don’t have a clue about or just blindly accept fate accompli e.g. when I point out neoclassical is basic AET with some bad maths and physics whacked on top of it.

          So to be fair others ignorance should not be projected back on others because they can’t grok it.

          Want to talk about Marginalism in economics and why is even worse than GT, but yeah me talking gibberish lmmao.

  2. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Is Clive’s mob still claiming to cap home loan interest rates at 3%?
    Wonder how many Mortgaged to the hilt FHBs will throw their vote at him for that policy promise alone.

  3. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    United States …

    Stock market news live updates: Stocks fall after rally, as traders digest Fed decision … Yahoo Finance

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-may-5-2022-221907800.html

    https://finance.yahoo.com/

    U.S. Mortgage Rates Jump to 5.27%, Highest Since 2009 … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-05/mortgage-rates-in-the-u-s-jump-to-5-27-highest-since-2009

    • Higher borrowing costs are pushing buyers out of the market
    • Freddie Mac economist expects home-price gains to slow soon
    Mortgage rates in the U.S. resumed their upward climb, reaching the highest level since August 2009.

    The average for a 30-year loan jumped to 5.27% from 5.10% last week, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday.

    The Federal Reserve yesterday raised its benchmark rate by a half point, the biggest bump since 2000, and signaled further hikes to come in its effort to cool inflation and the overheated housing market. Higher mortgage costs — already up more than 2 percentage points this year — may increasingly push out would-be homebuyers and ease competition for a scarce supply of listings. … read more via hyperlink above …

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