Macro Afternoon

By in Australian Dollar, Australian Shares

| 69 comments

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Things were looking up for stocks here in Asia today but most bourses ended up in the red as other risk markets remain in a holding pattern waiting for the Fed to make its next move. The USD remains super strong against all the majors with Euro and Pound Sterling still under a lot of pressure and almost back to their previous weekly low. Oil markets are steady with Brent crude still indicating a $105USD per barrel level price while gold is still under the pump, unchanged but weak at the $1864USD per ounce level, as daily momentum remains highly negative:

Mainland Chinese share markets were closed again for a holiday while the Hang Seng Index slumped at the close, finishing 1% lower at 20859 points. Japanese stock markets were also closed for yet another holiday while the USDJPY pair reflects that lack of trading action with a continuation of its symmetrical triangle pattern on the four hourly chart as it hovers above the 130 level:

Australian stocks started off well enough, shooting up 50 points or so before selling off throughout the day, with the ASX200 losing just over 0.1% to finish at 7304 points. Meanwhile the Australian dollar is very very slowly rising again after its overnight move down to the 71 handle, with almost no change now registered after yesterday’s rate rise by the RBA. There remains the potential to push a little higher to last week’s high just before the Federal Reserve kicks all of this down again – at around the 71.70 level (upper horizontal black line):

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are barely moving with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price wanting to get out of this bottom pattern with the potential to breakout above the high moving average at around the 4200 point level, but its very steady as she goes so far:

The economic calendar has some final PMI figures in Europe although the latest US non manufacturing PMI print could be a potential catalyst before we get the Fed meeting tomorrow morning.

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Comments

  1. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    Teal independent Despi O’Connor suspends campaign running in Flinders, Greg hunts current seat.
    The technical reason, is that she benefits from the Crown as a teacher even if she’s been on unpaid leave for over 18 months.
    My question is, isn’t Scomo and everyone in parliament is holding a position that benefits from the Crown more than a teacher???

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Indicative of those with no history of experienced recessions expecting softening actions of RBA, Fed or gov’t’s.
      bcnich will be proven correct, for many, not all but many.

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        Hopefully the bodycorp giving you less grief!
        I’ve never lived in recession, but the game is rigged I don’t think houses religion will be defeated easily.
        Long live bcnich

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Thanks TTP.
          Not too worried, I would probably win any legal action and can’t understand why they would bother threatening such when they have witnessed the emptying of the first container. Also by the time it went to court they would be gone. Toothless bullying. The pic’s shown on WE Sundries was pretty tame but when it started the panel beaters junk piles were all around surrounding the containers. Such a hypocrite, but it is what it is and you cant fight the Fed ( strata committee ). All in all they did me a favour forcing me to unhoard and throw out parts I may never use which means I will have to learn to tell clients to replace the machine I previously had unobtainable parts for. I will ask LeMon if he wants a very large Tig welding machine and 6 large boxes of books which he has room for ( have visited him to know). The only regret so far is the missus giving those 50 odd new unopened expensive brand bed sheet sets and linen to the charity guy who would personally sell them and possibly gamble the proceeds. btw she threw out my as new leather jacket today because I never wear it. Opposites attract, and I had my way for a long time when she had to secretly chuck stuff. It took a long time but the psychological trauma inflicted from the interest rate hike induced foreclosure causing the hoarding is after 30yrs finally starting to wane. bcnich’s scenario has far more devastating long term impact than people realize as per post depression folk who frugally hid cash in jam tins and mattresses way after the worst years.

          • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

            Is opposite attraction is a tested theory? What about samesex relations?

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Same with all, mates as well, eg one a listener one a talker.
            Even if siblings are born with identical personalities nature changes them to make sure the genes of the parent aren’t al sunk in the same ship. One adventurous one homebody. One catastrophe won’t destroy all the eggs in one basket.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Prime example is a surf chick my kids were part of a group in. At a later age she had a boyfriend who was a big wave surfer, but they were too similar and drifted apart as you expect two north polarity magnets to do. She ended up marrying a member of a band INXS who never even went to the beach let alone surf.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Yep Layne was in a handful group of grommets including my kids.
            btw have about 10 large cardboard boxes of DVDs some blanks, maybe some CDs, if you are interested (free of course). Maybe LeMon may be interested in some when his regional reception fails.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            I think I knew that boyfriend, he became a barman at a club I was working at for a year or so. He had sandy hair and about the same height as you. I’ll try to remember his name.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Referring to Ken Bradshaw living in Oahu, but may equally apply to your acquaintance.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            Nah different guy – he was really good friends with Layne anyway in about 96. I don’t know if the name will come to me.

    • JasonMEMBER

      No to your question (it might have been one of the first things I asked when I studied Federal Constitutional Law about 30 years ago).

      But sloppy by O’Connor – her scenario sounds exactly like Phil Cleary’s back in 1992. Is the other Indi in that seat a chance?

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        You are right, she should have double checked when wanted to run for parliament.
        Why isn’t there a body that looks into candidates to see if they check all boxes? Like how silly couple of years ago chunck of the parliament had to go cause of carrying other citizenship that some didn’t even know about

      • Swampy

        Aren’t teachers under the state Crown though? Put another way, is there a distinction between the Crown manifested at the star level v Fed?

        In any case I’ll bet her advice indicates in the strict sense she continues to benefit as there is a benefit in that she has a full time job to go back to

        Not like owning a post office or water company though is it?

        • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

          So politicians aren’t already benefiting from the Crown? Where’s scomo 550k per annum come from?
          In other words why a teacher can’t run to represent a community? Whose behind such a law?

          • footsore

            I believe that it’s distance from the public service when running from office. There’s usually something written about it in the employment contract legislation thingy. And if teachers fall underneath the public service banner then that may be it. If it is the case, would someone who teaches at a private school be able to run where a public school teacher isn’t allowed to? If so, then that strikes me as daft.

    • GavinMEMBER

      Good to see this, I was happy to see Germany play ball yesterday. Should have happened the minute he invaded IMHO. But at least this is something.

      • Dave

        Agree Gav. Despite some people trying to twist reality, in the case of Ukraine it’s crystal clear who the aggressor in this war is, and the barbarian activities the Russians are committing. Pressure on Russia is a great thing, I hope it continues for generations.

        • skippy

          So in you’re personal world view Dave …. Russia has spent decades post USSR collapse applying force on NATO members so it could loot their natural capital, then stole 300B of reserves without U.N. approval all whilst having spent decades in the M.E. concocting and supporting Terrorist groups. Not to mention a bus load of false flag events like chemical weapon attacks et al.

          Then some people bang on about the sanctity of contracts …

          The other issue of note was the stampede to frack a vast swath of American productive Ag land – Obama I did this thingy – and the Nord stream 2 pipeline being built, which IMO was to supply Europe with energy through peaceful beneficial trade for all parties concerned. Not to mention all parties concerned are natural historical trading partners. So just as this is near completion the Ukraine with a long history of U.S. involvement in its natural affairs, yet is the most corrupt nation around those parts, lets a bunch of far right wing terrorists get their groove on by taking out its psychosis on the people to in the east of the Ukraine, and then some wobble on about democracy, peaceful trade, property rights, freedom and liberties thingys …

          • Dave

            “So in you’re personal world view Dave”

            Hey Skip, to clarify:

            Russia invaded Ukraine. Russians are raping, murdering, executing, and destroying countless homes. Women and children, the elderly, the defenseless, the vulnerable, raped and killed by a military who is sick and desperate. The scale of civilian targeting is quite harrowing.Thus, the pressure on Russia for such organised terrorism is a good thing (and fortunately there is significant pressure being applied).

            Financially, we will need to wait and see how this effects the Russian bottom line. Certainly (and rightly) the Russian people will live with a huge drop in the trustworthiness and reputation of both them and their nation for a very long time (I dare say, for longer than either of us will be alive) As should be the case, when your nation commits an absolutely countless number of atrocities in a “special military operation” supported by the majority of Russian citizens (for whatever psychotic reasons).

            (with regards to the Middle East/NATO/false-flags/Obama/etc, I never commented, alluded, or offered my worldview on anything of that. I would say – anyone, including myself, should be capable of understanding there can be and is more than one evil, more than one enemy in this world)

            For now, Slava Ukraini.

            I hope this all ends sooner rather than later – as the price Ukraine has paid for Russian barbarity is already too high.

          • skippy

            “Russia invaded Ukraine. Russians are raping, murdering, executing, and destroying countless homes. Women and children, the elderly, the defenseless, the vulnerable, raped and killed by a military who is sick and desperate. The scale of civilian targeting is quite harrowing.Thus, the pressure on Russia for such organised terrorism is a good thing (and fortunately there is significant pressure being applied).”

            Fk’n surreal buddy because you could say exactly the same or even worse with the Atlantic adventures in the ME, extraordinary rendition with the repeal of Magna Carta e.g. black sites/gitmo, red mist wedding parties to get one guy, abu dhabi prison, fallujah, staged propaganda like infants taken out of incubators et al, and best of all Halliburton Trucks pre staged even before any Atlantic military forces arrived.

            “Financially, we will need to wait and see how this effects the Russian bottom line. Certainly (and rightly) the Russian people will live with a huge drop in the trustworthiness and reputation of both them and their nation for a very long time (I dare say, for longer than either of us will be alive) As should be the case, when your nation commits an absolutely countless number of atrocities in a “special military operation” supported by the majority of Russian citizens (for whatever psychotic reasons).”

            Are you mental, anyone outside the 20% will be stuck with the bill for this endless prodding of Russia so it bends the knee to Atlantic neoliberal social organization. BTW the whole Russian people trustworthiness meme is absurd after the largest wealth transfer upward post GFC in its nations and the increasing precariat in those nations all whilst the Billionaire Oligarch class swells.

            Do you even understand what the name Ukraine means from a polysci or historical perspective – it means periphery e.g. too an other nation.

            Might I ask if your pro Nazi Fascism because that is a huge dynamic in that countries political organization w/ a huge dollop of concocted ethnic tribalism that does not square with the non political histrionics. Lmmaso at old ideological arguments about national socialism aka Nazis and freedom all whilst capitalist and corporatist are in the the back ground playing silly games.

            You must the the sort that would be a white hat in Sarajevo enjoying the pleasures of the Ukrainian girls down int the stocked bar/club so you could release those individual tensions and it only cost a small amount.

          • Dave

            Hi Skip,

            Once again, you commence by speaking of the ME, I have not addressed this at all. It’s an amateurish attempt by you to deflect away from the atrocities by Russia.As I mentioned, even I agree there can be more than one evil in this world.

            Do I understand what Ukraine means? Well, I guess after spending a large chunk of my life in Ukraine, including the first two months of the war (I’m heading to the ME tomorrow for a month or two, you would never guess which country), I am supremely confident I understand more of both regions than you do. I’ve also spent time in every single post-Soviet nation, mostly, more than once. Including four (five?) visits to Transnistria and other unrecognised regions, continuing to the present over the span of many years. But I’m no expert, by my own admission. But you don’t need to be an expert to know that Russians are simply committing unspeakable evils in Ukraine, and they are the invaders.

            I’ve visited Sarajevo many times, and interviewed people who were involved with the war (you won’t believe who Bosnians see as the true enemy, hint, it’s nobody you have mentioned in your rants so far). Also Serbia, where I spent a total of about a year cumulatively. And Croatia. And Kosovo. But, I’m no expert.

            If you would like any questions answered, without dropping straight to the Kremlin talking points (do keep up, even the Kremlin has stopped with the whole over-cooked projection of “Nazi’s” in Ukraine) well I would have been happy to answer you with less bias than you would believe is possible (btw, don’t try and assume my nationality, you’ll be wrong).You’re very confused, and that’s not an insult – it’s just in reality you’re perhaps a decade or so behind some useful understanding.

            So, вітаю, I’m more than happy to say “you won”, and I’ll leave my mentioning of Russian raping and executing civilians here for posterity. That’s the main thing for me, not winning some nonsensical argument.

            All the best.

    • ZAMEMBER

      I don’t think the Russians were going to renew sales contracts. The divorce will be complete before then so it’s just the abandoned European Customer trying to look tough. It’s hard to see what the Russians can do with all those Euros.

  3. ZuluMEMBER

    EXCLUSIVE: Allegations Treasurer Josh Frydenberg kissed & groped a junior staffer without their consent a decade ago are said to be the key reason for why PM Scott Morrison has been trying to cover-up a major report into sexual abuse & harassment. #auspol
    https://t.co/lk03IS61rf

  5. Fabian AlderseyMEMBER

    I just saw this at URL https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/solomon-islands-prime-minister-ups-ante-in-criticism-of-australia-while-praising-china-during-tirade-in-parliament/ar-AAWU7SB?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=94996a21c7594dde9186a46b582814a2

    Text at the end is:

    Mr Sogavare also seemed to latch onto a piece written by an Australian analyst which suggested that the federal government might need to launch an invasion of Solomon Islands if China moved to set up a military base in the country.

    No government figure in Australia has publicly raised the prospect of invasion.

    But Mr Sogavare seemed to suggest that option was being contemplated in Australia, saying Solomon Islands had received a “touching warning of military intervention”.

    “In other words, we are threatened with invasion. Now that’s serious,” he said.

    Is the “Australian Analyst” H & H?

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      No such thing as a free lunch.
      All those freebies equates to loss of purchasing power for savers.
      For every winner there has to be a loser.

      • skippy

        “For every winner there has to be a loser.”

        Where did you get that idea boom, some aet comic book. Hint … life let alone markets … are not some barter theory binary choice/s of win or lose. BTW I thought it was spelt out a long time ago on MB that the term savers in economic parlance has nothing to do with the unwashed savings, regardless of the concocted moralistic plea that is used to beguile them – its about BSD bond/sovereign papers holders.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Idea from, some economists view just being repeated.
          Basically laziness on my part to save original thinking.
          .
          btw thanks for the attachment above, interestingly I thought the SDR’s would weaken the USD vicelike grip but it seems they are plotting control (using SDR’s) even moreso.

  8. Grand Funk RailroadMEMBER

    Recession risks rise as central banks move too slowly on interest rates, Marc Faber warns
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-04/investing-when-interest-rates-are-rising-marc-faber/101034034

    The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to lift its benchmark interest rate by another 50 basis points this week.

    However, Mr Faber is critical of central banks for not acting sooner.

    “Never in history before, in the 5,000 years of recorded history, were interest rates this low, as they were in 2020 and 2021,” he told The Business.

    “That is a huge manipulation by central banks and now the market has called their bluff and they are in a difficult position because of their mistakes.”

    “So, we have now a situation where the central banks are in a very difficult position because if they don’t increase interest rates, inflation will likely accelerate.”

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Well he’s been sitting on his pile of gold so long. Now that the predictions are finally coming true, the lost opportunity will take a long time to recoup.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      But if the inflation is transitory, then central banks are,were correct ..
      Some economists even asked central banks not to increase interest rates

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        We do to a lesser degree.

        I often wonder if we are going to see the weaponisation of the “Aboriginal land, always was always will be” narrative in combination with all the “Wh!te supremacy/decolonisation” schtick used against Australia in the future by a motivated and well resourced foreign power.
        As Chinas might grows maybe they will offer to “liberate” indigenous Australians from their Colonial oppressors.
        In exchange for exclusive resource exploitation rights of course.
        Oh and 100million Han on the ground to man and defend the agreed upon extraction enterprises too.

        By the time those “Wh!te” Inner-city metropolitan bourgeois Bohemians, virtue signalling their fashionable self loathing opposition to their own “Wh!teness” realise what is going on It will be too late as they are being marched off into the ovens.
        Will they be propagandised enough to think they deserve their extermination?
        I wonder

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