See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
A mixed session here in Asia for risk takers as most of the big stock markets are closed still with the dominating catalyst for the day being the once in a decade rate rise by the RBA, which lead to some oscillation in stock prices but put a light underneath the Australian dollar. Even still, the USD remains super strong against all the majors with Euro and Pound Sterling still under a lot of pressure. Oil markets are steady with Brent crude still indicating a $107USD per barrel level price while gold is slipping again after its big falls overnight, currently at the $1861USD per ounce level, as daily momentum remains highly negative:

Mainland Chinese share markets were closed again for a holiday while the Hang Seng Index put in a scratch session to finish just 0.2% higher at 21128 points. Japanese stock markets were also closed for yet another holiday while the USDJPY pair is reflected that lack of action with a symmetrical triangle pattern on the four hourly chart showing no direction, albeit with a bullish bias as it hovers above the 130 level:

Australian stocks went down and then recovered most of that turn on the back of the RBA rate rise with the ASX200 still losing around 0.25% to finish at 7328 points. Meanwhile the Australian dollar surged after a morning 50 pip rally off of the 70 handle, then retraced most of that move to be around the 70.90 level before again picking up pace later this afternoon as the hourly chart shows. The target in this move – before the Federal Reserve kicks all of this down again – is the previous weekly high around the 71.70 level (upper horizontal black line):

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are inching higher with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price wanting to get out of this bottom pattern with the potential to breakout above the high moving average at around the 4200 point level, but its very very early days yet:

The economic calendar is very busy today following the RBA meeting, we’ve got German unemployment then a speech by ECB President Lagarde then US factory orders.
- Macro Afternoon - May 20, 2022
- Macro Morning - May 20, 2022
- Macro Afternoon - May 19, 2022
Thank you Chris! You were missed yesterday.. but Not-Gunna came to the rescue.
How good is the Australian economy! We are increasing rates for first time in 10 years and scomo is so upset about it and blaming the world for it!
lolol they have a new position on IRs now; normalisation, it’s all normal! Don’t know why they didn’t say that before, I guess they hadn’t come up with that lie then.
Not all the reasons for the rising US dollar are good.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/05/02/what-really-raises-the-rising-dollar/
The strong USD is possibly the wrecking ball that knocks down an already shaky world economy. It’s smashing EM’s purchasing power and creating debt exposures for borrowers in USD (corporate and state) world wide. I think Brent Johnson’s milk shake theory looks about to be proven correct. Demand for USD goes up at the same time Fed puts rates up- which is bad. And the Fed can’t go full reverse when inflation is going up. So the debtor nations must raise interest rates to prevent capital flight but this further crunches cash in the broad economy(s).
Are we are about to see a world wide recession? I hope not, but would not be surprised.
I think Global Recessions is baked in.
New Zealand …
Newshub-Reid Research poll: Labour suffers dramatic fall as National cracks 40 pct … Newshub
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/05/newshub-reid-research-poll-labour-suffers-dramatic-fall-as-national-cracks-40-pct.html
House price falls biggest since the GFC, Corelogic says … Susan Edmunds … Stuff NZ
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/300579009/house-price-falls-biggest-since-the-gfc-corelogic-says?cid=app-iPad
Barfoot & Thompson’s (Auckland) median price down by $99,000 from its December peak … Greg Ninness … Interest Co NZ
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/115627/barfoot-thompsons-median-price-down-99000-its-december-peak
More multi-unit dwellings than stand-alone houses consented in a 12-month period for the first time as the number of new homes being consented goes through the roof … Greg Ninness … Interest Co NZ
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/115630/more-multi-unit-dwellings-stand-alone-houses-consented-12-month-period-first-time
World watching NZ housing market as Auckland labelled ‘canary in coal mine’ … Geraden Cann … Stuff New Zealand
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128396590/world-watching-nz-housing-market-as-auckland-labelled-canary-in-coal-mine
Roe vs Wade will be overturned next month.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473
That might be enough to save the Democrat in states like Michigan.
Stand by for a US Crime Wave in 20 years time.
I remember that….was it debunked, or did they blame lead instead?
Good read/listen with the Freakanomics guys:
https://freakonomics.com/podcast/abortion-and-crime-revisited/
Thanks I’ll give it a listen.
Ground zero being the Red states.
The Satanic Temple classes abortion as a religious activity this circumventing the laws of a few of the states that have already made abortion difficult. They’ll be getting a few more members should it be overturned.
Just what America does NOT need, it has the potential to rip the country apart, especially when Donald starts stirring.
Getting harder to tell these blokes apart…is this Phil Lowe?
https://twitter.com/CSigmaShow/status/1521236029705158656
Just like those indistinguishable types in the Laberal party the Greens have their own look too.
I don’t approve of the mean comments made against our fellow Australians by those cheeky foreigners.
https://twitter.com/climatewarrior7/status/1521187563125542915?s=21&t=qIkmes3vP5bA5zqmV5LE2g
OK you win.
QLD
The sky is falling!! The sky is falling!!
Jesus Christ! The last time interest rates went up Robin Williams, Osama Bin Laden, Gadaffi, Kim Jong-il, Steve Jobs and Amy Winehouse were still alive. Japan had not been hit by massive earthquakes and nobody knew where Fukushima was. The Greek default was in the future, Julian Assange was still a free man and Charlie goddamn Sheen was still on Two and a Half Men. Prince William was single and the Chilean Miners had just been rescued the month before.
Keeping interest rates so low for soooo looong is the definition of delusional, and has been instrumental in setting this country on the dark trajectory it is now following.
And today they went up ZERO point two five percent.
I mean just….wow. The sheer chutzpah is breathtaking.
Oy vey, the chutzpah is really just the usual schtick.
There’s nothing moister than an Oy-ster.
and the average Australian house price was a touch over 500K
Looking back those prices were so cheap!
Perhaps many here don’t understand this, but the RBA knows what’s coming (wether rates rise or not)
What they want is ammunition (rate cuts) for when the SHTF.
Because you can’t cut rates from ZIRP.
Hence.
So we’re all buying the dip on bonds then?
Yeah, you can. Negativz.
Negative.
Brett, beat me to it.
Not working for Europe.
Negative rates!
Oh Boom and Brett before him beat me to it
Yep, this is why I’m bullish on BitCoin, when rates go up it may retrace but next crisis they will probably take the cash rate negative. Hence, I am planning to stay long BTC.
Phil Lowe is 60 years old ……and tonight on telly
he is sporting a fine head of blonde hair ………is this an indicator for this wonderful strayan economy ?
And there you have it… CBA raises its variable rate by 25bp.
Any honey for savers?
Nah – all likely going to NIM, profit and bigger bonuses for the bosses to help them cope with cost of living inflation (the cost of their toys, luxury lifestyle etc). Screw depositors forever the likely message – if they’re stupid enough to have money in our “unquestionably strong” banks.
1.99 and feeling fine
4 more years!
4 more years!
The same CBA that said RBA won’t rise till June??
Hypocrites!!
I found the debt figures for VIC (without having to join the IPA)
https://twitter.com/psimpsonmorgan/status/1521397488678490112
Good memory sir!
The bad man hurt me, Phanny.
Dose he look like this bloke ?
https://twitter.com/CSigmaShow/status/1521236029705158656
Don’t they all…is that a selfie?
I don’t do selfies I prefer having fun with another person
Once upon the time Scomo attacked KRudd for an increase in interest rates
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/why-the-reserve-banks-rate-rise-is-bad-news-for-scott-morrison/news-story/e1d2fe7773dd10b7f61313138508fd3b
Next RBA hike will be 0.4% according to westpac
https://mobile.twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1521431840099532802?cxt=HHwWhIDQsdOMm50qAAAA
That help will fix teh thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgRLlqEvOT8
It’s the bogie man ….of course it is ……
https://youtu.be/rxcLmaV7Irc
I like a lot of the Greens policy platforms. Especially their health and education stuff and putting dental on Medicare is a real vote winner.
But they seem to hate middle aged males (the wh!te ones in particular) like me.
I mean would they have selected Claire Garton as a candidate for Morton if she hadn’t transitioned to a woman?
https://greens.org.au/qld/person/claire-garton
I know what you mean, but don’t let perfect get in the way of good.
I have no idea what you mean.
🤨
Queue the Star Wars cantina music…should be played at their AGM as it represents similar diversity to the relevant scene
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sHD-knhS6es
The Australien Government has made a final ad before the 2022 federal election, and it’s surprisingly honest and informative!
👉 We’re on Patreon: https://t.co/e6YAu8LFeT https://t.co/46PuBsjIqS
Reserve Bank cash daddy Philip Lowe has locked his office door this morning and put a sock over the smoke detector because today is the beginning of the end of the Australian Dream, as some pundits are saying.
In addition to smoking inside his Martin Place Office, the Reserve Bank Governor is also blearing Guns N Roses classic ‘Welcome To The Jungle’ at an obnoxious level.
Shortly before speaking to The Advocate via telephone, Lowe allegedly threw a stapler at his executive assistant after he gained entry to the office.
“This is it, boys,” yelled Lowe over the ripping Slash guitar solo.
“You’re about to experience your first rate rise in 11 years! Woooooooo! The Prime Minister will never forgive me and guess what, motherf**kers, I don’t give a f**k!”
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/advocate-in-focus/rba-governor-philip-lowe-pumps-welcome-to-the-jungle-and-lights-up-a-durrie-as-rate-rise-apocalypse-begins/