Late swing to incumbent arrives

There is always a late swing to the incumbent government as undecided voters stick with the devil they know. Today it arrives.

Resolve:

When voters were asked to name the parties that would receive their preferences, the results showed Labor held a lead of 51 to 49 per cent in two-party terms, a significant narrowing in the election contest from the result of 54 to 46 per cent two weeks ago.

When the two-party vote is calculated using historical preference flows as they were cast at the last election, the result suggest that Labor leads by 52 to 48 per cent, also tightening the outcome from the result of 54 to 46 when measured the same way in the last survey.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.