Labor 57.7% chance of victory

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IPSOS:

Excluding undecided voters, Labor’s primary vote has fallen two points to 36 per cent, while the Coalition’s first preferences have jumped three points from 32 per cent to 35 per cent.

The Greens are on 13 per cent, One Nation 5 per cent, the United Australia Party 3 per cent and others and independents are on 8 per cent.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.