Investor mortgage demand booms ahead of rate rises

Advertisement

The Australian mortgage market rebounded in March, according to new data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The total value of new mortgage commitments rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.6% in March 2022 to be up 11.1% year-on-year:

New mortgages

Owner-occupier commitments rose only 0.9% in March, whereas investor commitments rose 2.9%.

Advertisement

The next chart shows massive divergence across both categories. Investor mortgage commitments grew by 48.4% in the year to March, versus a 2.2% decline in annual owner-occupier mortgage commitments:

Australian mortgage growth

The recent surge in investor mortgage demand continues to crowd-out first home buyers (FHBs). Although FHB mortgages rebounded 5.9% in March it was down 25.2% year-on-year. FHB’s mortgage share has also fallen to 15.3% – well below the pandemic peak – as the investor share has rocketed:

Advertisement
First home buyer versus investor mortgagesFirst home buyer versus investor mortgage share

Obviously, mortgage demand will fall going forward as interest rates rise.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.