Inside the Chinese property crash

Barclays has a crack at the Chinese property crash today:

Lifting lockdowns crucial for easing measures to take effect…

We maintain our forecast of a 20% y/y decline in contracted sales in 2022e (China Property: Cautious on high-cash-price bonds, 2 March 2022), but downside risks increase if lockdowns are lifted later than we expect. We forecast a 50-55% y/y decline in contracted sales in April, and a 40-45% y/y decline in contracted sales in 2Q22 (1Q22: -50% y/y), assuming sequential recoveries in May and June when lockdown restrictions are set to be lifted gradually. We expect contracted sales to return to y/y growth in late 3Q22 at the earliest.

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