Inside the Chinese property crash

Barclays has a crack at the Chinese property crash today:

Lifting lockdowns crucial for easing measures to take effect…

We maintain our forecast of a 20% y/y decline in contracted sales in 2022e (China Property: Cautious on high-cash-price bonds, 2 March 2022), but downside risks increase if lockdowns are lifted later than we expect. We forecast a 50-55% y/y decline in contracted sales in April, and a 40-45% y/y decline in contracted sales in 2Q22 (1Q22: -50% y/y), assuming sequential recoveries in May and June when lockdown restrictions are set to be lifted gradually. We expect contracted sales to return to y/y growth in late 3Q22 at the earliest.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.