Inflation expectations dived after fuel excise cut

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Roy Morgan has released its inflation expectations survey for April, which shows that expectations fell 0.5% to 5.5% after fuel excise was cut by 22.5 cents in the March federal budget:

In April 2022 Australians expected inflation of 5.5% annually over the next two years, down 0.3% points from March 2022. The level of Inflation Expectations in April represents a pullback from the large monthly increase in March (+0.7% points) which sent the measure to a near decade high.

Inflation Expectations in April are a large 1.8% points higher than a year ago in April 2021 and well above the long-term average of 4.7% but have pulled back after the petrol excise was cut in half in Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s Federal Budget delivered in late March and petrol prices declined by nearly 50 cents per litre from mid-March to mid-April…

Roy Morgan inflation expectations

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.