Morgan Stanley with a good note on where next for stocks. I would only add that there is another scenario that it does not explore that constitutes my base case. It is that in front-loading its hiking cycle, the Fed breaks something relatively quickly and markets effectively end the cycle by overshooting until it relents.
Certainly, this is a known unknown. But it is the norm rather than the exception in the Fed tightening cycles, not least when it is attacking demand to address largely supply-side inflation.
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