Home buyers are still flocking to Queensland

While Sydney’s and Melbourne’s property markets are sliding into the red, Queensland’s continues to rise on the back of strong interstate demand.

PropTrack’s Potential Buyers Index, which measures the number of people seriously interested in buying, shows that demand nationally has been trending down since March:

Australian buyer demand index

But an analysis of the SA3 regions with the largest annual growth in quarterly potential buyers reveals that interest in Queensland homes skyrocketed over the past 12 months

Queensland buyer demand

Westpac’s latest Housing Pulse also shows ongoing strong (albeit cooling) demand for Queensland property:

Queensland: from red hot to hot

Qld’s housing market is showing signs of cooling after posting a big surge in 2021 that was still driving strong price gains in the first few months of 2022. Turnover has come off but is still high by historical standards. Price momentum has moderated, albeit coming from red hot to just hot with gains still tracking a double–digit annualised growth rate. However, sentiment is showing a clearer turn lower. That said, a super tight supply–demand balance should continue to provide underlying support.

Queensland housing sentiment

Turnover has declined 20% since the start of the year, but remains high overall, equivalent to over 6% of the total dwelling stock transacting on an annual basis (the other major eastern states are closer to 4–4.5%, the difference partly reflecting lower stamp duties in Qld).

Queensland housing turnover

Price momentum has been surprisingly strong year to date, averaging 2%mth from Jan to Apr. However, May is shaping as an abrupt cooling, daily measures pointing to a much more subdued 0.3% gain in the month. Even with this, annual price growth is set to hold at a rollicking 27%yr.

Brisbane dwelling values

The detail shows a tentative cooling centred on houses and ‘top tier’ properties, which have led the recent gains. Growth momentum has dropped to a single–digit annual pace for Brisbane’s West and inner city but remains stronger for outer suburbs and the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. The regions have seen much milder gains over the latest cycle.

The supply–demand balance remains extremely tight in Brisbane for both houses and units with little sign of reprieve. Indeed, rental vacancy rates point to more pressures, dropping through 1% in Brisbane.

Queensland rental vacancy rate

Queensland dwelling values have risen more than 40% over the pandemic. Buyer demand remains strong, but is clearly fading on the back of eroding affordability and rising interest rates.

I give Queensland around six months before prices begin to fall there as well. Soaring interest rates will sink all housing boats.

Unconventional Economist

Comments

  1. JspitzerMEMBER

    Qld has less initial reporting of sales, longer settlement time, slower reporting of those settlements meaning prices are 3 months plus behind what’s actually happening.

    • JspitzerMEMBER

      Which is great if you want interest rates to rocket as the RBA will be well behind as usual.

  2. what is Annual growth in ‘potential’ buyers ?
    FNQ 64% ffs.
    Potential yeah, after a holiday in July. Reality, not so much after a good, stinking hot wet season.
    CC is happening up there too. Less rain, hotter temps.

    • I'll have anotherMEMBER

      It’s been raining here every day for 5 weeks straight, stopped yesterday.

      Not arguing on CC but to say it’s been a wet year is an understatement.

      • Like i said, a bit lower than usual this yr (Oct to current). Always feels like its been raining forever by May, hence why i’m no longer there, although sunny coast feels the same this yr.

        Mean 47 90.4 182.1 402.4 437.8 415.6 201.9 91.2 1868.4
        2021/2022 8.2 95.4 117.2 375 127.2 352.6 381.6 172.8 1630.2
        2020/2021 same period 2398.6

      • and along with that ………temps. The olds have been there 50+ yrs. They know when its changing

        Mean Oct to current 31.9 32.6 33.1 32.4 32.5 32 30.5 28.8
        Mean all yrs 29.6 30.8 31.5 31.5 31.3 30.6 29.3 27.7
        Diff 2.3 1.8 1.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1

        • I'll have anotherMEMBER

          Thanks Carlos, love a good bit of weather data.

          Yeah it’s for sure getting hotter up here in the nth and it’s hard on the health during summer.

  3. BradleyMEMBER

    If the floods, humidity or congestion doesn’t do their heads in, new arrivals will find the mould will.

    • I'll have anotherMEMBER

      Floods are a NSW problem too. In fact the South of Sydney will flood nearly yearly besides the obvious issues in the north of NSW. Congestion and floods are only really in the sth east corner and it’s heaps less congested than Sydney or Melbourne. Humidity is a thing, can’t deny that.

  4. Needs a LEMMINGS index.
    Loads of
    Excess
    Money
    Moving
    Interstate
    Not
    Going to
    Survive

  5. Oh no… Not more crap… I doubt any of them will create any wealth or new jobs for local people already there.