BofA with the speculation:
A tenuous but remarkable change in communication
We saw a notable change in communication from the Fed in recent weeks as financial conditions have tightened sharply (see Exhibit 1), the economic outlook has deteriorated moderately (see more “stag”, more “flation”) and the threat of runaway inflation appears to have subsided (for now) with a potential peak in YOY CPI back in March. In a 13 May speech, Cleveland Fed President Mester argued that “If by the September FOMC meeting, the monthly readings on inflation provide compelling evidence that inflation is moving down, then the pace of rate increases could slow, but if inflation has failed to moderate, then a faster pace of rate increases may be necessary.” Earlier this week, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said a pause in September might make sense.