Though it is sure going to try. Sinocism:
The system has its marching orders from the Standing Committee meeting last week and no measure is too harsh if it will help the local officials hit their targets for clearing cases from community transmission.
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Page 1 People’s Daily commentary Tuesday – “Persevere for the people, Persistence is victory”. Concludes with:
Persistence is victory, and the dawn is ahead. The more difficult things are, the more we must have the determination to be cautious, the more we must have the perseverance to overcome difficulties. Under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, we will strengthen our confidence, help each other, and unite as one, with the tenacity of “fixing the green hills and not letting go” and the hard work of “the more difficult and dangerous the more forward”, the epidemic prevention and control will be carried out in detail. In various tasks, small wins will become big wins. We will surely build a solid line of defense to protect people’s lives and health, and we will surely win the tough battle of epidemic prevention and control as soon as possible.
坚持就是胜利，曙光就在前方。越是在最吃劲的时候，
Shanghai re-tightens on COVID, frustrating trapped residents | AP News
On Tuesday, service was suspended on the last two subway lines that were still operating, marking the first time the city’s entire system has been shut down, according to The Paper, an online media outlet…
notices issued in several Shanghai districts in recent days ordered residents to stay home and barred them from receiving nonessential deliveries as part of a “quiet period” lasting until Wednesday or longer. The measures could be extended depending on the results of mass testing, the notices said. The sudden re-tightening took residents by surprise
Chang Che @ChangxcheMay 10th 2022
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Beijing reports 59 new local COVID-19 infections-Xinhua
The new cases were mainly detected among personnel under closed-off management. Only one new infection was found during the infected individual’s visit to a local hospital, said Pang Xinghuo, deputy head of the Beijing municipal disease prevention and control center, during the conference.
The latest cluster of infections in the city’s Shunyi District has seen 28 people test positive for the novel coronavirus so far, according to Pang.
WHO chief: China’s zero-COVID strategy not “sustainable” – Axios
When we talk about the zero-COVID strategy, we don’t think that it’s sustainable, considering the behavior of the virus now and what we anticipate in the future,” Tedros said.
“I think a shift will be very important. … Now we know a lot about the virus and we have better tools, so these are the additional opportunities that we have to make a shift
Shanghai authorities responded to the public speculations about one positive infection in a building will result in all the residents in the whole building being centralized quarantined: whether a person is identified as first or second degree close contact is a holistic judgment made by epidemiological professionals according to national standards, with consideration for the results of epidemiological investigations and information from big data screening, Sun Xiaodong, deputy director of Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention said during a press briefing on Tuesday.
Home disinfection for positive cases only – SHINE News
Household disinfection will only be conducted in the homes of COVID-19 positive cases. But if they live in old residential neighborhoods, the homes of their neighbors, who share common kitchens and bathrooms, will also be disinfected, according to Shanghai’s housing authority.
Before conducting the home disinfection, community workers must fully communicate with the infected persons and their families, seeking their understanding and cooperation.
Residents should also tell the staff about any belongings that are sensitive to disinfectants or need special protection, Jin Chen, deputy director of the Shanghai Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission, said.
Shanghai’s Covid Lockdown Leaves Thousands Sleeping in Its Streets – WSJ
Victims of the same strict Covid-19 rules that are keeping most residents homebound, many of the newly homeless are migrant laborers from rural areas and smaller cities who often live hand-to-mouth while sharing an apartment with other workers.
For many, the companies they work for have closed down in the lockdown, including boarding up worker dormitories. Some have chosen to join the tens of thousands who zip around Shanghai on bikes or scooters for food-delivery platforms like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s Ele.me and Meituan’s namesake service.
the government in Beijing, which has also been in a tough battle against COVID-19 flare-ups recently, updated its guidelines for home quarantine.
The guidelines said that home quarantine is only allowed for people who live in houses with independent kitchens and toilets; people who have air purge and drainage systems that won’t contaminate those of other households, and people who are equipped with good ventilating conditions…
Several anti-COVID workers in Beijing communities told the Global Times that they received the new guideline, and were told to take people whose living conditions do not qualify for home quarantine to collective quarantine centers.
China’s big city plan for Covid testing just a 15-minute walk away | South China Morning Post
China is planning to set up Covid-19 testing booths within a 15-minute walking distance in all major cities, as regular negative nucleic acid results become a requirement for going to school, work, shopping or eating out.
Vice-Premier Sun Chunlan, who is leading the country’s fight against the pandemic, told a State Council meeting on Monday [See the Monday newsletter on Sun’s comments] the measure is part of the “dynamic zero tolerance” policy as China prepares for its most important political meeting of the year.
常态化核酸检测中普通人群几天一次？
Thepaper looks at the new Covid-testing requirements in big cities, some require a test every 3 days, some every 5, some every 7. Seems like there should be a consistent policy?
Shanghai’s zero COVID – by Daev Keli – Beijing Baselines
a translation of Tong Zhiwei’s “Legal Opinion on two measures in Shanghai’s COVID-19 Prevention and Control”
As soon as the measures come off it will spread.
Meanwhile, the PBOC is sitting on its hands for fear of crashing the CNY. Goldman:
- On monetary policy stance, the Q1 monetary policy report described policy stance as “prudent with more support to the real economy”, in comparison with“prudent, flexible and appropriate” in Q4 2021 monetary policy report. More specifically:
- In its Q1 report, the PBOC stated to “guide financial institutions to reasonably extend loans”, in comparison with “guide financial institutions to accelerate loanextensions” in Q4 monetary policy report; PBOC would also “implement policymeasures to facilitate corporates’ stable development and stable employment”. Beyond the general monetary policy stance statement, PBOC highlighted the importance of structural monetary policy tools by mentioning it would focus onstepping up support to small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), industries hithard by Covid and vulnerable groups. PBOC would also increase quota ofagriculture and SME relending programs. Same as Q4 monetary policy report,PBOC reiterated to “keep liquidity conditions reasonably adequate, increase thestability of credit growth, keep M2 and aggregate financing growth largely in linewith nominal GDP growth, and maintain a broadly stable macro leverage”.
- PBOC offered more discussions around the deposit rate regime in its Q1monetary policy report, which is new. In a special column of the Q1 monetarypolicy report, PBOC mentioned it enhanced deposit rate regulation recently andrequired banks to set their deposit rates based on 10-year government bond yield and 1-year LPR. Large commercial banks lowered their deposit rates by 10bpsin late April in response, which could help with interest rate transmission and furtherlower funding costs for the real economy. Weighted average interest rate of newloans moderated to 4.98% pa at end-Q1 from 5.19% at end-Q4 2021,
2.On the exchange rate: the description was similar to the Q4 2021 monetary policyreport. PBOC warned the spillover effects from developed markets’ monetary policytightening by mentioning “the impact of monetary policy tightening in major DMeconomies have become more visible, and developing countries are facing morechallenges on debt solvency, cross-border capital flows and financial market correction”.PBOC emphasized that policymakers would “closely monitor monetary policyadjustments by developed markets”, and “focusing on domestic issues, PBOC wouldstrike a balance both internally and externally“. The PBOC would keep RMB exchangerate broadly stable at equilibrium levels, and reiterated to enhance expectationmanagement and let exchange rate be the automatic stabilizer of macroeconomy andcross-border payments.
3.On property, Q1 monetary policy report echoedthe April Politburo meetingstatement. The PBOC mentioned housing is “for living in, not for speculation”but alsostated “to customize policy based on the local situation, meet fundamental/upgradingdemand”.According to the PBOC however,property related loan extensions slowed inQ1 vs Q4 last year – growth in outstanding property sector loans was 6% yoy at end-Q12022, vs 7.9% at end-Q4 2021 – both mortgages and developers’ loans slowed -outstanding residential development loan growth was -1.3% yoy, vs +0.5% yoy in Q42021, and outstanding mortgage loan growth decelerated to 8.9% yoy, vs 11.3% yoy inQ4 2021.
4.On inflation, the PBOC sounded slightly more cautious on inflationary pressures: inQ1 monetary policy report, PBOC mentioned to closely monitor price inflation, ensurestable supply of grains and energy to maintain broad stability in inflation, in contrast to Q4 2021 report where PBOC downplayed inflationary pressures by saying CPI would“remain within reasonable ranges, and PPI inflation may decline on the back of baseeffect and easing in global supply chain disruptions“.
5. In special columns of the Q1 2022 monetary policy report, the PBOC commentedon regulations on finance holding companies, deposit rate regime and acceleration oflegislation on financial stability.
6. In sum, the Q1 monetary policy report followed recent policy communications andhighlighted structural monetary policy tools. We continue to expect unchanged overallreserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates but more usage of targeted toolssuch as relending to support the overall economy. The accommodative monetary policywould continue to facilitate the more expansionary fiscal policy stance and creditsupport to infrastructure investment, which would be the main policy lever in the nextfew months. We expect the PBOC to allow for controlled weakening in CNY against theUSD which suggests CNY might weaken further in the near term, especially when theUSD strengthens broadly against other major currencies.
In short, nothing new. Onwards and downwards until OMICRON is crushed then reopen and do it all again.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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