CBA: Consumers to drive Australia's Q1 GDP

By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA:

Key Points:

We expect Q1 22 real GDP to increase by 0.5% which would take the annual rate to 2.8%.
Household consumption is anticipated to rise solidly over the quarter.
Public spending and inventories are also forecast to support growth in the quarter.
Net exports will be a significant drag on growth while broadly flat outcomes over the quarter are expected to be posted for residential construction and business investment.
We expect nominal GDP to increase by a large 2.6% over the quarter which would put annual growth at 8.9%.

Production over Q1 22 likely to understate strong economic momentum

The Q1 22 national accounts, due on Wednesday 1 June, are expected to confirm that the Australian economic expansion continued over the March quarter, albeit at a more modest pace.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

CBA: Consumers to drive Australia’s Q1 GDP

Key Points:

Production over Q1 22 likely to understate strong economic momentum