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By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA:
Key Points:
- We expect Q1 22 real GDP to increase by 0.5% which would take the annual rate to 2.8%.
- Household consumption is anticipated to rise solidly over the quarter.
- Public spending and inventories are also forecast to support growth in the quarter.
- Net exports will be a significant drag on growth while broadly flat outcomes over the quarter are expected to be posted for residential construction and business investment.
- We expect nominal GDP to increase by a large 2.6% over the quarter which would put annual growth at 8.9%.
Production over Q1 22 likely to understate strong economic momentum
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The Q1 22 national accounts, due on Wednesday 1 June, are expected to confirm that the Australian economic expansion continued over the March quarter, albeit at a more modest pace.
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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