Some history of bear markets and recessions from Goldman.
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A recession is not inevitable, but clients constantly ask what to expect from equities in the event of a recession. Our economists estimate a 35% probability that the US economy will enter a recession during the next two years and believe the yield curve is pricing a similar likelihood of a contraction. Rotations within the US equity market indicate that investors are pricing elevated odds of a downturn compared with the strength of recent economic data. Additionally, the dividend futures market implies S&P 500 dividends will decline by nearly 5% in 2023. During the last 60 years, S&P 500 dividends have not declined outside of a recession.