Australian wage growth badly misses expectations

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Australian wage growth missed economists’ expectations in the March quarter of 2022, according to new data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Australian wage growth

Total wages grew by only 0.65% in the March quarter, missing analyst’s expectations of 0.8% growth. Private sector wages grew by 0.65% over the quarter, whereas public sector wages grew by 0.56%.

Overall wages grew by 2.35% over the year, up significantly from the all-time low of 1.36% recorded in the year to September 2020. But it too missed analysts expectations of 2.5% annual growth.

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The private sector recorded wage growth of 2.44% in the year to March, whereas the public service recorded 2.23% wage growth:

Wage growth by sector

Wage growth has universally rebounded across Australia’s jurisdictions. Across the major states, wage growth is strongest in QLD (2.5%) and weakest in WA and SA (+2.2%):

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Wage prices by state

Wage growth has also rebounded across most industries:

Wage growth by industry

Clearly, the softer than expected wage growth augers against the RBA hiking rates aggressively next month.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.